week six ... early plays

3 putt pete

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YTD 9-8 ( +3.29) Kind of treading water but still above it.

I'm taking a couple MAC plays now

Ball St + 8' at Akron (two units)

Will shoot against the Zips this week . Akron lost their all MAC RB Warren Ball to a busted ankle vs BG last week. He was the heart and soul of this offense and will be very much missed. Akron lacks the skills, coaching and individual discipline needed to execute well and consistently without him. Their defense is soft and Ball should be able to exploit a banged up secondary.

For good or bad, I am entirely tossing out Ball State's blowout loss to a pretty good Western Mich team. They fumbled the opening kickoff for a quick Western score and found themselves down 21 - 0 before they worked up a sweat. Akron is a far softer spot on the schedule and playing in a 3/4 empty stadium is not an imposing overly hostile environment. As a bonus, Akron's kicking game is awful. They put the thrill back into the extra point and converting FGs are unlikely. I just can't see the Zips beating them by more than a touchdown, if at all.


NIU -23' vs Kent State (one unit)

The reasons are obvious, a complete mismatch. Wanted to grab this because I think it gets to -24 and possibly beyond that soon. NIU returns home after two good efforts away at solid programs,. They beat the Huskers and could have beat #19 San Diego St in SD where they out gained them them by 150+ yards. MAC opener for the Huskies so they should be motivated.

Kent lost its last at home to Buffalo . Enough said
 
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3 putt pete

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Though I had no intention of touching this game when the line opened at 10' I'll take a flyer against the money and go with Western Mich to cover at Buffalo. The Bulls have become a bit of a darling to players as they have covered every number this season but the going gets tougher here. QB Anderson is expected to make just his second start after taking over for the injured Jackson. Against a poor Kent St team he completed just 11 passes for 140 yds. This was well and good against Kent because the Flashes can't stop the run. This week he'll be facing a high powered offense and Buffalo will have to throw just to keep up or catch up should they fall behind. What really caught my eye last week was that Kent's inept offense torched the Bulls secondary for 320 yds.

Western is in good form and has very respectable outings at USC and Mich St. They avg 37 ppg with a good balanced attack have done it against a much tougher schedule. To be fair, Buffalo has decent defensive numbers but I feel they are offset by the quality of their opposition. Their SOS stands at 99/130

The thinking here is that this is a nice spot for Western. If Buffalo falls behind, they will probably lack the firepower to keep up.

Western Mich -7 one unit

Thanks Dizz... If I know somebody reads my garbage I'll keep at it when I have the time. It's nice to know why somebody likes a play. Thats why I love reading guys like Musca and Riff Raff. It used to be just about everybody jotted down a couple of supporting sentences. Now just names and numbers.
 

3 putt pete

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Undisciplined action play :

U Conn +16 one unit

Can't ignore this large of a home dog against a truly horrific Memphis defense.
 

3 putt pete

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Adding another 2 H chalk: Toledo has been the dominant team statistically. Logan Woodside is the difference.

Toledo -6 (3)
 

3 putt pete

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I felt like Aaron Judge facing Trevor Bauer today. If it was a fight they would have stopped it.

1- 6 (-9.0)

YTD : 10-14 (-5.71)
 
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