Week XVI NFL

[Mr Rattler]

6-2 last week. Working real hard for a 4th straight 60%+ NFL season (at 58% right now)

Thursday Night: The Dumpster Fire Bowl

I can't believe that I am actually going to place a wager on this game, but I think it's a strong play.

Jacksonville -3.5 WIN

Jags are clearly the better team. They win this on turnovers alone: Last 4 weeks: Tenn -7 Jax +3. Jags run game gets it going tonight!

 

[Franchise_Davis]

Tailing tonight. I've been bad on TNF lately I could use a win

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Thursday Night: The Dumpster Fire Bowl

I can't believe that I am actually going to place a wager on this game, but I think it's a strong play.

Jacksonville -3.5

GL Mr Rattler!! 58% is still profit!! A loss by Tennessee clinches a #1 pick for 2015 and Whisenhunt and the Titan brass are licking their chops for that one!!

:0074

 

[Four Corners]

GL Mr Rattler!! 58% is still profit!! A loss by Tennessee clinches a #1 pick for 2015 and Whisenhunt and the Titan brass are licking their chops for that one!!

:0074

With on this one Mr. Rattler...will be on the edge of my seat for this....to get a headstart to the bed.:mj07: Good read on your notes at bottom of your page. Congrats on hitting he big plays...continued success!!

 

[Mr Rattler]

Underdog of the week

Raiders +7 WIN

Raiders have played very well at home down the stretch winning their last 2 over KC and San Fran. Buffalo comes to town after a very hard fought win at home vs the Packers where they "left it all on the field". Combo the let down situation and the 3500 mile travel and you have a great spot for the home dog. Very close to making this my underdog of the year, but I can't put it out there like that on a 2 win team. This will be a close, defensive game. Bills have scored over 17 points on the road only twice; against the shitty Bears and against the shitty Jets. Yes, they play the shitty Raiders, but Oakland's defense has played well at home last 2 times out. I see them getting fired up for their home finale.

Love the 7 points in a close, defensive game.

 

[Mr Rattler]

Saturday


2 Team 7 point teaser LOSS
Philly pk
Sd/SF UNDER 47.5

-Wash 1-5 ATS at home
-Wash 1-7 ATS after divisional loss
-Wash 1-6 ATS after 2 or more losses in a row 1-9
-Wash 1-9 SU last 10 as dog
-Philly 3-1 ATS this year as a 3-10 pt fav
-Philly 6-3 ATS as a fav
-Must win for Philly

-SF hasn't cracked 17 points in 5 weeks
-SD hasn't cracked 10 in past 2 weeks
-SF 5 consecutive unders
-SF 9 of last 11 games stayed under when favored
-SF 5 of last 6 at home stayed under
-SD 5 of last 6 stayed under after facing DIV foe

 

[Mr Rattler]

SF/SD UNDER 41 (-120) Loss

-SF hasn't cracked 17 points in 5 weeks
-SD hasn't cracked 10 in past 2 weeks
-SF 5 consecutive unders
-SF 9 of last 11 games stayed under when favored
-SF 5 of last 6 at home stayed under
-SD 5 of last 6 stayed under after facing DIV foe
-Combined 7 of 8 unders when line is from -3 to +3

 

[cruisin]

Played the under with ya, also SD since SF played Seattle last week and teams playing Seahawks are suppose to be 0-fer su and ats.:toast:

 

[Mr Rattler]

Sunday 12/21

Steelers -3

The mere thought of taking the Steelers makes me want to barf, but money is money and a winner is a winner. In 4 of the 5 Steelers losses this year, they were out gained on the ground AND lost the turnover battle. Can the Chiefs accomplish this? NO. KC is #29 in the league in rushing and the Steelers are #11 run defense. Pitt has held 5 of their last 7 opponents under 100 yards on the ground and are 5-0 SU in those games and 4-1 ATS. The Chiefs failed to make 100 yards in 3 of their past 4 games and are 1-2 SU & ATS in those games. Don't forget that Jamal Charles is not 100% this week.

The key to beating the Steelers is to be able to throw down field. Alex Smith is not that guy. Alex Smith is 3 for 15 on passes of 20+ yards this year. Also, if Smith has to throw more than 30 times, his rating goes from 98.3 all the way down to 25.1.

The Chiefs have been horrible on run defense (#28 in the NFL) allowing 6 of last 7 opponents to rush over 100 yards , and 2 teams to eclipse 200 yards. Pitt isn't the greatest running team, but if Bell has any success, and he will, that will open up the Chiefs stingy pass defense for Big Ben.

The intangible is that Big Ben in big games has always been amazing. This is a HUGE game where the loses is in all likely hood out of the playoffs.

 

[Mr Rattler]

Ravens Report

Ravens are playing a must win game thanks to San Diego's win. The Charger's come back leaves no room for error for the Ravens, they must win out (yes they would not be eliminated with a loss, but they would need a lot of help). How will the Ravens respond?

Ravens face a team with no quarterback (we think). Keenum, the presumed starter, is not without experience as he started 8 games for the Texans in 2013 throwing for 9 TDs against 6 picks. He also took 52 snaps for the Texans in the 2014 pre-season, completing just over half of his passes, no TD's and 2 picks (All against 2nd and 3rd string defenses) He can also use his feet, having rushed for 72 yards in 16 attempts with 1 TD. He does have fumble troubles with 6 fumbles in 253 drop backs. That's almost 1 per game. Keenum, in his 8 starts last year, got progressively worse as the game went on. His Rating was 96 in throws 1 thru 10 and 86 in throws 11 thru 20. However, the drop off comes in throws 21-30 with a rating of 61 and then drops to 48 on throws 31+. The Ravens' main worry is a man named Arian Foster who is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, a career best. The Ravens front 7, the teams strength, has lost their main run stopper in Ngata.

Houston has a commendable 7-7 record coming off of last year's disastrous season. However they are 2-5 vs teams with winning records with the wins coming against Buffalo (week 4) and Cleveland (week 11) who are no longer above .500.

The Texans would need the effort of the year to beat the Ravens. That will be difficult to do with Keenum, who has not seen action in 2 seasons. They will also need to find a way to stop Joe Flacco who is quietly having a career year being on pace to pass for over 4000 yards for the first time in his career. Flacco is a big game QB (see 2012) and today is a big game. The Ravens should be able to run effectively, but not dominate the game on the ground. This one will be won or lost on the arm of Joe Cool.

I will put my money on his arm and the ferocious front 7 of the Ravens in a big game.
Look for a tight game at the half, with the Ravens taking control at the end.

Ravens -5.5

 

[Mr Rattler]

Remainder of 1pm Board:


Car -3.5 WIN
Sorry, I don't see Johnny foozball winning a game this year

Miami -4 LOSS
Despite the whole entire world taking the Vikings, I will jump at this generous line as Miami bounces back with a big effort today. Yes, they lost 4 of their last 6, but to Balt, NE, Denv and Det, ALL playoff teams. Vikings are 1-5 on the road as a dog of more than 3.

Atlanta +6 WIN
I see Matt Ryan shredding this pathetic Saints defense. Don't get fooled by that win at the shitty Bears. The Saints do not warrant being a 6 point favorite to ANYBODY let alone a Falcon team playing hard.

Bears +9 WIN
Yes, I just called the Bears shitty but Det has very little to play for. Win or lose, next week is the big game for the division championship. Also, I firmly believe the Bears will play much harder for Clausen than they did Cutler. The Bears looked defeated before they took the field last Monday. The QB change may just give them a spark...... Plus its Christmas and your QB is CLAUSen.. just saying.
3 of last 4 Saints wins came when the Saints won the turnover battle by +2 or more. Atlanta has only 3 giveaways the last 3 weeks total.

Posted Earlier
Pitt -3 WIN
Balt -5.5 LOSS


Leans (not picks)
GB-12 WIN

NE/Jets UNDER 46 WIN

 

[hammer1]

You writes Real Good Snakey...Tanks !

 

[jdb64]

Thanks for the plays and good luck,Still liking Raiders?

 

[rrc]

58% is absolutely world class...great great job!

 

[Gags]

Sunday 12/21

Steelers -3

The mere thought of taking the Steelers makes me want to barf, but money is money and a winner is a winner. In 4 of the 5 Steelers losses this year, they were out gained on the ground AND lost the turnover battle. Can the Chiefs accomplish this? NO. KC is #29 in the league in rushing and the Steelers are #11 run defense. Pitt has held 5 of their last 7 opponents under 100 yards on the ground and are 5-0 SU in those games and 4-1 ATS. The Chiefs failed to make 100 yards in 3 of their past 4 games and are 1-2 SU & ATS in those games. Don't forget that Jamal Charles is not 100% this week.

The key to beating the Steelers is to be able to throw down field. Alex Smith is not that guy. Alex Smith is 3 for 15 on passes of 20+ yards this year. Also, if Smith has to throw more than 30 times, his rating goes from 98.3 all the way down to 25.1.

The Chiefs have been horrible on run defense (#28 in the NFL) allowing 6 of last 7 opponents to rush over 100 yards , and 2 teams to eclipse 200 yards. Pitt isn't the greatest running team, but if Bell has any success, and he will, that will open up the Chiefs stingy pass defense for Big Ben.

The intangible is that Big Ben in big games has always been amazing. This is a HUGE game where the loses is in all likely hood out of the playoffs.

I think you are spot on. Big plays kill the Steelers defense, they play soft and want you to dink and dunk. Alex Smith doesnt have enough weapons to keep pace. Good pick and I'll hold the barf bag for ya brother. :0008

 

[Old School]

good stuff..:0074

 

[gardenweasel]

I just saw that 5 dimes has the Texans getting a full 7 at -125...I`m rooting like hell for the ravens but as a gambler I can`t pass that up on the road.....

the fact that kubiak knows keenum probably much better than bill O'Brien is a big plus for the ravens....

but laying a full td on the road vs a team with a real running game and a solid defense(not to mention deandre Hopkins and andre Johnson playing).....as a gambler,i can`t pass that up....

hope I`m wrong.....g.l. to all...

 

[Mr Rattler]

Thanks for the plays and good luck,Still liking Raiders?

Absolutely

 

[Mr Rattler]

You writes Real Good Snakey...Tanks !

Your welcome, but my name has absolutely nothing to do with snakes. It is much, much darker than that. :jump:

 

[Juji-gatame]

I just saw that 5 dimes has the Texans getting a full 7 at -125...I`m rooting like hell for the ravens but as a gambler I can`t pass that up on the road.....

the fact that kubiak knows keenum probably much better than bill O'Brien is a big plus for the ravens....

but laying a full td on the road vs a team with a real running game and a solid defense(not to mention deandre Hopkins and andre Johnson playing).....as a gambler,i can`t pass that up....

hope I`m wrong.....g.l. to all...

Very smart. I took ravens on a teaser with under in Chicago. Bye bye $$$$$