Posted Record: 17-18 +3.65 units
A very good slate of games this weekend including 3 match-ups pitting top 10 teams against each other. Have four plays today and hope to see the road dogs come out:
LSU +145 (@ Georgia) for 2 units - #2 Tigers take on the #6 Dawgs. Bullpens are pretty even for these two clubs. Offensively there is a slight edge to Georgia, especially as 1B Poythress has been on an absolute tear. On Wednesday I wrote how you really need a power pitcher to attack Georgia. Well LSU has just that going for them tonight. They start tall fireballer Anthony Ranaudo. Ranaudo has some gaudy stats with a 3.08 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; .191 opponents avg. and 60 K?s in 38 innings. He can lose control occasionally as he has given up 7 HR?s. Georgia has their ace going in Trevor Holder. Holder has 3.06 ERA; 1.25 WHIP; 2.48 opponents avg. and 34K?s in 35 1/3 IP. Holder is a very good picture and I really like the Georgia team this year as they have depth and are very well rounded. Ranaudo gives LSU an above average chance to win this game though and should do just that if he can steer clear of giving up the long ball.
UC Irvine +165 (@ Cal State Fullerton) for 1 unit - #8 Anteaters take on the #1 ranked Titans. Very small play as Fullerton is definitely the better club and they have distinct advantages on offense and in the bullpen. However, the starting pitching matchup tonight is pretty even, which makes it worth a shot at a decent dog price. Both pitchers are very good with Daniel Bibona going for Irvine and Daniel Renken going for Fullerton. I think this could be similar to Fullerton?s series last weekend against Riverside. They could lose a pitchers? duel on Friday and then should win on Saturday and Sunday.
North Carolina +105 (@ Georgia Tech) for 4 units - #5 Tar Heels travel to #10 Georgia Tech. On paper Georgia Tech has the slight edge offensively. The bullpen edge is heavily in North Carolina?s favor as they have several guys they can trot out that are shut down type pitchers. Starting pitching is interesting as based solely on statistics it appears pretty even. Georgia Tech starts Sophomore Deck McGuire (Deck - seriously what were his parents thinking?). McGuire has a 2.50 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; .241 opponents avg. and 48 K?s in 39 2/3 IP. UNC counters with highly touted Junior Alex White. White?s numbers are off from last year?s stellar season, as he has a 4.30 ERA; 1.38 WHIP; .262 opponents avg. and 45 K?s in 37 2/3 IP. When looking deeper at the numbers though, McGuire?s stats are heavily buoyed by his first three starts which all came against average at best competition. His last three starts (he has 6 on the season total) have been against pretty good competition and he hasn?t fared well. UNC is a pretty good hitting club and should be able to get to him early. White is use to facing tough competition leading the staff to Omaha last year. He hasn?t been stellar but I believe he will start to turn it around and tonight against a club he completely shut down last year is the perfect opportunity.
Florida St. +165 (@ Miami) for 1 unit ? Similar to the Irvine play as unranked FSU takes on #11 Miami. The Hurricanes have a clear edge in the bullpen but FSU has a distinct offensive advantage. Starting pitching is pretty even in my mind. FSU starts Freshman Sean Gilmartin. Gilmartin has a 2.92 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; .208 opponents avg. and 42 K?s in 37 IP. Miami is having David Guiterrez replace struggling Chris Hernandez as their Friday starter. Guiterrez has been their Saturday starter and has a 1.51 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; 2.06 opponents avg. and 24 K?s in 35 2/3 IP. As shown by the lack of K?s, Guiterrez isn?t a strikeout pitcher and against a good hitting club like FSU I think that hurts him. For two teams that are pretty even overall, I?ll put a small play at the underdog price of +165.
GL guys.
A very good slate of games this weekend including 3 match-ups pitting top 10 teams against each other. Have four plays today and hope to see the road dogs come out:
LSU +145 (@ Georgia) for 2 units - #2 Tigers take on the #6 Dawgs. Bullpens are pretty even for these two clubs. Offensively there is a slight edge to Georgia, especially as 1B Poythress has been on an absolute tear. On Wednesday I wrote how you really need a power pitcher to attack Georgia. Well LSU has just that going for them tonight. They start tall fireballer Anthony Ranaudo. Ranaudo has some gaudy stats with a 3.08 ERA; 1.00 WHIP; .191 opponents avg. and 60 K?s in 38 innings. He can lose control occasionally as he has given up 7 HR?s. Georgia has their ace going in Trevor Holder. Holder has 3.06 ERA; 1.25 WHIP; 2.48 opponents avg. and 34K?s in 35 1/3 IP. Holder is a very good picture and I really like the Georgia team this year as they have depth and are very well rounded. Ranaudo gives LSU an above average chance to win this game though and should do just that if he can steer clear of giving up the long ball.
UC Irvine +165 (@ Cal State Fullerton) for 1 unit - #8 Anteaters take on the #1 ranked Titans. Very small play as Fullerton is definitely the better club and they have distinct advantages on offense and in the bullpen. However, the starting pitching matchup tonight is pretty even, which makes it worth a shot at a decent dog price. Both pitchers are very good with Daniel Bibona going for Irvine and Daniel Renken going for Fullerton. I think this could be similar to Fullerton?s series last weekend against Riverside. They could lose a pitchers? duel on Friday and then should win on Saturday and Sunday.
North Carolina +105 (@ Georgia Tech) for 4 units - #5 Tar Heels travel to #10 Georgia Tech. On paper Georgia Tech has the slight edge offensively. The bullpen edge is heavily in North Carolina?s favor as they have several guys they can trot out that are shut down type pitchers. Starting pitching is interesting as based solely on statistics it appears pretty even. Georgia Tech starts Sophomore Deck McGuire (Deck - seriously what were his parents thinking?). McGuire has a 2.50 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; .241 opponents avg. and 48 K?s in 39 2/3 IP. UNC counters with highly touted Junior Alex White. White?s numbers are off from last year?s stellar season, as he has a 4.30 ERA; 1.38 WHIP; .262 opponents avg. and 45 K?s in 37 2/3 IP. When looking deeper at the numbers though, McGuire?s stats are heavily buoyed by his first three starts which all came against average at best competition. His last three starts (he has 6 on the season total) have been against pretty good competition and he hasn?t fared well. UNC is a pretty good hitting club and should be able to get to him early. White is use to facing tough competition leading the staff to Omaha last year. He hasn?t been stellar but I believe he will start to turn it around and tonight against a club he completely shut down last year is the perfect opportunity.
Florida St. +165 (@ Miami) for 1 unit ? Similar to the Irvine play as unranked FSU takes on #11 Miami. The Hurricanes have a clear edge in the bullpen but FSU has a distinct offensive advantage. Starting pitching is pretty even in my mind. FSU starts Freshman Sean Gilmartin. Gilmartin has a 2.92 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; .208 opponents avg. and 42 K?s in 37 IP. Miami is having David Guiterrez replace struggling Chris Hernandez as their Friday starter. Guiterrez has been their Saturday starter and has a 1.51 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; 2.06 opponents avg. and 24 K?s in 35 2/3 IP. As shown by the lack of K?s, Guiterrez isn?t a strikeout pitcher and against a good hitting club like FSU I think that hurts him. For two teams that are pretty even overall, I?ll put a small play at the underdog price of +165.
GL guys.
