Weekend in Kentucky

[Smitty]

Only gonna handicap a few races this weekend, but figured I'd share some thoughts. Just finished working on the Oaks.

For starters, I'm betting against Meaning (5-1) and Percy's Bar (6-1). Meaning has been flattered by some good trips against weaker fields and the one time she beat Explora, Explora caught a dead rail. And Explora didn't have Flavian Prat on board that day. Luan Machado has worked a rail trip the last 3 times out on Percy's Bar. That's going to be difficult to repeat coming from the 9-hole (2 scratches inside of her).

Speaking of Explora, she can certainly win this race at 6-1. She missed her last prep due to an illness, but she's working well for this one. However, Baffert is 0-for-8 in graded stakes at CD the last 3 years. *side note* Baffert is 6-of-11 in races other than graded stakes at CD in that time frame, so if you're betting the undercard, I assume he has some runners.

I have Zany (Pletcher) and Counting Stars (Casse) as the fastest horses tomorrow, but both come with a big question mark. It's hard to bet Pletcher at 4-1 when he's won 5 of 40 graded stakes at CD the last 3 years. And Casse is just 3 of 29 in that time frame. Plus, I'm not sure I trust Francisco Arrieta in a big race at 8-1. After a quick search, it looks like he's never won a Grade 1. That said, I still have to use both these horses.

There are 3 horses I'll use mostly underneath. Always A Runner (10-1), Prom Queen (8-1), and the bomb... Lovely Grey (30-1). Always A Runner wasn't quite as fast as she appeared in her last (just her second lifetime start) thanks to a nice trip, but I like how she did it. Prom Queen has been fantastic in her 2 starts around 2 turns and Brad Cox is 15-for-74 in graded stakes at CD the last 3 years. Lovely Grey will need to work a trip from out there, but she's worth a shot at this price. Her 3 races this year have all been on synth. Dirt could be her best surface. She made a big jump forward in her last race, while closing into a slow pace. She could certainly bounce, but I love the synth-to-dirt angle. And the price is right at 30-1.

 

[Smitty]

Holy shit, my 3 "mostly underneath" runners have all taken some action.

Always a Runner is down to 4-1.
Prom Queen is 5-1.
And Lovely Grey... *double checks*... is down to 9-1. Holy shit. On one hand, I don't like her as much at that price, but that tells me she's really live.

 

[redsfann]

Holy shit, my 3 "mostly underneath" runners have all taken some action.

Always a Runner is down to 4-1.
Prom Queen is 5-1.
And Lovely Grey... *double checks*... is down to 9-1. Holy shit. On one hand, I don't like her as much at that price, but that tells me she's really live.

Just finishing up my card for the oaks— bad news… i like your card a lot 🤣

saw a few handicappers pumping up lovely grey at the horse racing sites I follow. I liked her from my first cap of the race last weekend— shes got some fans it seems…

Played a 1 dollar exact box with these:

2,4,9,10, 11 and 15. Cost is 30 bucks

My choice to win is the 9 horse, Always a Runner. Played her across the board.

Good luck!

 

[Smitty]

Just finishing up my card for the oaks— bad news… i like your card a lot 🤣

saw a few handicappers pumping up lovely grey at the horse racing sites I follow. I liked her from my first cap of the race last weekend— shes got some fans it seems…

Played a 1 dollar exact box with these:

2,4,9,10, 11 and 15. Cost is 30 bucks

My choice to win is the 9 horse, Always a Runner. Played her across the board.

Good luck!

That is bad news for both of us.

Well, shit, it's NEVER good when other people are hyping up a 30-1 shot. Poor girl is destined for last place now.

Fuck, I hate not getting the value on some of these that I thought I would. Really don't like 4-1 on Always a Runner.

Alrighty, at some point I gotta figure out exactly how I'm gonna attack this. Probably start with a boxed exacta with my 5 runners, then maybe a boxed tri and another tri with the 2, 4, and 9 on top of the 10 and 15.

 

[Smitty]

For shits and giggles, I'm also playing this in the Oaks/Derby Double.

2,4,9,10,15 with 1,10,15,18

 

[redsfann]

For shits and giggles, I'm also playing this in the Oaks/Derby Double.

2,4,9,10,15 with 1,10,15,18

I’m in with this oaks/derby double. Likely toss the 6,9,12 and 18 in on the derby side. More I look at it the more I see 10 horses winning and I’m not shocked if they do

 

[Smitty]

Well, the 2 just made a right turn out of the gate which made things very easy for the 1.

Just before post, I was about to put in a WP bet on the 9, but every time I do that, I regret it.

 

[redsfann]

Missed the exacta,but Always a runner at 5-1 wins 👍

 

[kickserv]

but Always a runner at 5-1 wins 👍

Always a Runner

13.04

7.46

5.44

 

[kickserv]

I was about to put in a WP bet on the 9, but every time I do that, I regret it.

 

[Smitty]

Moving on to Saturday.

9th race, American Turf

The 4, Stark Contrast, is the most likely winner. ML is 4-1, and will probably drop. I'll bet him to Win all the way down to even money.

I'm going to play some tris.

4/5 (first time turf, his dam and all 3 of her offspring who have raced ran their best #s on turf)/7,9,11,13
4/5,7,9,11,13/5,7,9,11,13

A note on the 1.... he's the only speed except for the 9 and 14, so he could get away with setting easy-ish fractions. All else being equal, he's too slow. But if the turf is producing a bunch of wire-to-wire winners, I may need to include him.

 

[Smitty]

11th Race, Turf Classic

Nothing too great here. I like the 6 Rhetorical, at 5-2. Gonna use him in some tris.

6/5,7/1,2,5,7,10

The value here is not using the #9, who is the 2nd choice at 7-2.

 

[boomer1]

11th Race, Turf Classic

Nothing too great here. I like the 6 Rhetorical, at 5-2. Gonna use him in some tris.

6/5,7/1,2,5,7,10

The value here is not using the #9, who is the 2nd choice at 7-2.

Smitty I’m seeing 5 horses including The Puma scratched today? Maybe an off track? Is this true?

 

[Smitty]

Smitty I’m seeing 5 horses including The Puma scratched today? Maybe an off track? Is this true?

Yup. The 5, 9, 13, 20, and 24 are all out. They've run out of AEs and a tiny field of 19 are scheduled to run.

And, last I saw, the weather was perfect for a horse race. High 50's (I didn't say it was perfect for the spectators). I saw notes on the first two scratches a few days ago, but don't remember the details. Nothing to do with the track though.

 

[boomer1]

Yup. The 5, 9, 13, 20, and 24 are all out. They've run out of AEs and a tiny field of 19 are scheduled to run.

And, last I saw, the weather was perfect for a horse race. High 50's (I didn't say it was perfect for the spectators). I saw notes on the first two scratches a few days ago, but don't remember the details. Nothing to do with the track though.

Who are you on today? Can Renegade overcome the rail. It’s been 40 years since the 1 post has won.

 

[Smitty]

Who are you on today? Can Renegade overcome the rail. It’s been 40 years since the 1 post has won.

Funny you should ask. I'm working on that right now. I'll post that first.

 

[Smitty]

Ok, time for the Derby. Long story short, for the first time in 22 years I'm not hosting a party. Still plan to have a few juleps though.

A few thoughts on Renegade (#1). First, I don't think the 1 post is nearly as bad as it used to be, since they introduced the new gate. There just hasn't been a horse less than 10-1 in that post, and some of those longer shots have actually run decent from there. Renegade has had a great early career, getting faster every time out. However, he is a closer and will still have to work out a trip in this huge field. Who knows how wide he may have to go in the last turn. There aren't many better than Irad Ortiz, so I can't rule out a decent trip. For me, the biggest knock on Renegade is the Todd Pletcher factor. As I mentioned earlier, his record here is poor. It's hard to love Renegade at 4-1 (now 5-1). But I absolutely still have to use him.

 

[Smitty]

Alright, my thoughts on the horses that I think have a chance to hit the board, and a few others.

Renegade(1) - see above.

Intrepido(3) - 50-1 is kinda ridiculous for this horse. I love his pattern. It's basically identical to a couple bombs (Mine That Bird, Commanding Curve) in recent years who have run well. My biggest concern is the distance. He has one full sibling on his dam's side, and she was faster sprinting. But at 50-1, I have to use him underneath.

Commandment(6) - Boomer, you'll be happy to know I'm not going to use him. While I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit the board (or even win), I think he'll need to improve to do it, and horses rarely improve in the Kentucky Derby. If he was a longer price, I'd use him, but I don't think 6-1 (now 5-1) is fair enough for me to use him.

So Happy(8) - I'm looking for him to bounce after the big effort in the SA Derby. And now that he's 5-1, I really don't like him.

Wonder Dean(10) - Ran a really nice race to win the UAE Derby. That was one of the fastest figures in this race, and he's 30-1.

Incredibolt(11) - I love his pattern, and his work at CD was really good, but he's too slow and he's a deep closer. In his two 2-turn races, he was last or 2nd-to-last at first call. He's going to have a LOT of work to do, and I'm not sure Jaime Torres is capable of working the miracle he'd need to contend.

Chief Wallabee(12) - This is the horse I like out of the Florida Derby. While he hasn't improved since his first race in January, he also hasn't moved backwards. I think he'll appreciate the extra distance and Mott's record here in graded stakes the last 3 years (6-of-23, 26%) is excellent.

Potente(14) - I truly hate Baffert. I don't want to use this horse. But he can run well today, and I have to use him at 20-1. Given Baffert's recent record here, I'm only using him underneath.

Emerging Market(15) - I like this horse today. I expect him to run well. My biggest concern is traffic. He's only raced twice and he's been mid-pack in both. Being mid-pack in a 9-horse field is a little different than mid-pack in a 19-horse field. Luckily he has Prat on board. If he can work out a trip, I think he'll be right there at the end.

Six Speed(17) - Another horse with a good pattern who is a little slow, but I have to use him on my deepest ticket at 50-1 (down to 33-1 now).

Further Ado(18) - Well, fuck. I have no idea what to do with him. Twice he has run faster than anyone else in this race. After the first time (last year), he bounced quite a bit, but still won. How will he do after the second time? On one hand, this is similar to Fierceness, who was the fastest coming into the Derby a couple years ago, and bounced. On the other hand, Fierceness was trained by Pletcher, who doesn't do well here. Further Ado is trained by Brad Cox, who has been very solid here and, albeit in a short sample size, has done better than most trainers when it comes to getting his horses to run their best in the Derby. Even the jockey muddies the waters. John Valasquez is still a fine jock if you have the best horse and just want the jock to keep him out of trouble. But it's hard to avoid trouble in a 19-horse field. Especially starting from the outside. I don't think JV still has it in him to find a narrow opening and shoot through it. For me, all the negatives add up enough that I probably won't play him at 6-1.

Golden Tempo(19) - I think with an absolutely perfect trip, this horse would have a shot at hitting the board. And he's 30-1. That said, he's had trouble in 3 of his 4 races, it's possible he bounces off his last effort, and he's starting towards the outside. I'm not sure even 30-1 is a fair price to bet on him.

Great White(21) - Huh. I mean, he's way too slow and easy to dismiss. BUT... his first three starts were on synth. It looks like his best surface should be dirt. And when he got on dirt his last start, he caught a dead rail in the Blue Grass. So he's still never had a fair run on a dirt track. In general, I love that angle. Nobody will see it. And somebody thinks he's kinda live, because he's been bet down from 50-1 to 22-1. Again, it's gonna be tough from this outside post. But crazy things can happen in these huge fields. I'm kinda talking myself into using him a little underneath on some deep tickets.

 

[Smitty]

Ok, now how to bet it? This is gonna be an expensive mess.

I'll start with a WP on the 15. Just love the upside of this horse.

I'll also key the 15 in a boxed exacta with 1,3,10,12,14,17,21.

Then, in case the 15 gets caught in traffic, a smaller boxed exacta with 1,3,10,12,14,17,21 (c'mon, only $42 for $1 exacta!).

This is where the fun starts. I've come close to hitting the tri in the Derby the last few years, but haven't gotten there. Obviously, you have to spread to have a legit chance. I'm thinking about a key box with the 15 with 1,3,10,12,14,17,21. $63 for a $.50 tri. Maybe in conjunction with another key box with the 15 with 1,3,10,12,14, which is only another $30.

I'm even thinking about Show bets on the 17 and 21.

Chaos!

 

[Smitty]

Moving on to Saturday.

9th race, American Turf

The 4, Stark Contrast, is the most likely winner. ML is 4-1, and will probably drop. I'll bet him to Win all the way down to even money.

I'm going to play some tris.

4/5 (first time turf, his dam and all 3 of her offspring who have raced ran their best #s on turf)/7,9,11,13
4/5,7,9,11,13/5,7,9,11,13

A note on the 1.... he's the only speed except for the 9 and 14, so he could get away with setting easy-ish fractions. All else being equal, he's too slow. But if the turf is producing a bunch of wire-to-wire winners, I may need to include him.

The 5 scratched. At least that makes my tickets cheaper.