Colorado at Chicago Cubs (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Rockies have been much more competitive in the early weeks of the new season, thanks to their dominance at Coors Field. But they are a very different team away from home (only 4-9, -$355), and that will make it hard on them when they come into Wrigley. The Cubs under Dusty Baker are getting excellent pitching (3.23 team ERA, 3rd best in the NL) and have posted a solid 8-3 mark at home against righthanders (+$295). Avoid Chacon (+$545, 1.04 ERA), who has emerged as a powerhouse hurler for Colorado, but the rest of staff will be hard pressed to salvage any victories here. BEST BET: Cubs vs. all righthanders except Chacon.
N.Y. Mets at Milwaukee (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Mets had a decent homestand, but they?ve been awful away from Shea Stadium (3-7, -$435), and we?re not all that anxious to take them at Miller Park when they come stumbling in after a series in St. Louis and with the Dodgers on deck. The Brewers aren?t much of a team, but they have outhit the Mets by nearly 30 points, so we?ll consider taking them if the price is right. It should come as no surprise if the home team comes away with 2 out of 3 against this opponent. BEST BET: Brewers at +135 or better.
Florida at Houston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Marlins are getting some excellent pitching right now (3.29 ERA among starters last 10 days). while the Astros are struggling to keep their heads above water. They?ve been horrible against righthanders so far (8-11, -$705 with only 4.2 runs per game) and they haven?t gotten the performances from their top two starters they so desperately need (Oswalt -$395, Miller -$235 with a 5.11 ERA). Florida is averaging 5.4 runs per game vs. righties (+$310) and we could get some favorable matchups at very generous underdog prices. BEST BET: Marlins when righty meets righty.
Montreal at St. Louis (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Expos are making money in all settings right now (15-10, +$490 overall), at home and on the road, vs. righties and vs. lefties. They?ve got the lowest team ERA in the majors (2.86) and their all-righty rotation is ideally suited to deal with the Cardinals? potentially potent attack. St. Louis is off to another of their patented slow starts, and their numbers against righthanders are unimpressive to say the least (9-11, -$340). Armas is on the DL, but Montreal has a number of hurlers with excellent numbers, at least two of whom could see action here. BEST BET: Vazquez/Ohka.
Atlanta at Arizona (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
It looked like the Braves? reign atop the NL East was over, but they?ve come roaring back in recent weeks (7-2, +$410 last 10 days) to re-assert themselves as the team to beat in the division. Arizona?s run production against rightanders is shockingly low (only 2.9 per game so far), and the two big guns in their starting rotation have both missed starts already this year. Randy Johnson has been the biggest disappointment (-$820, 6.95 ERA), but he?ll probably be heavily favored in this game nonetheless. Atlanta fares well vs. lefties (5-1, +$400, 6.2 runs per game) and we?re also prepared to take an improved Greg Maddux (2.13 ERA last two starts) when he takes the hill this weekend. BEST BET: Maddux/Braves vs. Johnson.
Philadelphia at San Diego (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Normally we?d be taking a long hard look at the visiting Phillies, but the Padres looked very good against Chicago and Cincinnati last week, and despite weak overall numbers (4.90 team ERA), they?ve got three strong starters who could slow down the Phillies? attack. The visitor is a lackluster 5-4 on the road so far, and our favorite pitcher on the staff (Padilla, 2.31 ERA) isn?t expected to take a turn. We?ll check back on game day. BEST BET: None.
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Dodgers are getting great pitching (3.13 ERA, 2nd best in the NL) but the Pirates aren?t far behind (3.36) and they could be an excellent value here at Chavez Ravine. They?ve turned a nice profit as a road team thus far in ?03 (6-3, +$460) and their starters can throttle the anemic LA offense (-$425 with only 3.6 runs per game vs. righties). Suppan (1.89 ERA) is certain to start, and we might see Benson (2.36) depending on how the rotation is configured. We?ll use one or both if we can. BEST BET: Suppan/Benson.
Cincinnati at San Francisco (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Reds could always be counted on to turn a profit once they left the confines of Riverfront/Cinergy, but the early numbers in 2003 are not encouraging (only 3-7 as a visitor, 10-15, -$155 overall). Currently they are listed dead last both on hitting (.230 team BA) and in pitching (5.84) so their chances against the 18-6 (+$1060) SF juggernaut appear pretty bleak. But we?re not big fans of laying prices of at least 2 to 1 if not higher, so we?ll pass. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at NY Yankees (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Most experts predict that the Yankees and Athletics will eventually square off in October to determine who wins the AL pennant. One side of the bracket looks like a safe bet as the Bronx Bombers (20-5, +$880 overall) continue to roll. But Oakland has fallen back after a fast start and will continue to struggle until 2002 MVP Miguel Tejada (.163) starts to play like one. The Yankees are the choice when Roger Clemens (2.12 ERA) takes the ball (27-6 in Yankee Stadium over the last three years), most likely in a marquee match vs. Cy Young winner Barry Zito on Sunday. BEST BET Clemens.
Minnesota at Boston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Last season?s Central division champs are struggling big time (10-14, -$500 so far) or maybe it?s just a case of going up against the Yankees too early and too often. But the Red Sox have come out of the gate at full speed, especially at Fenway where they are 7-2 (+$145). The Sox are likely to face at least a couple of struggling righthanders, neither of whom has an ERA that gives us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. Reed & Lohse.
Tampa Bay at Detroit (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Up to now, it?s been impossible to recommend the woeful Tigers. Detroit (3-20, -$1235 overall) is hitting below .185, a number of opposing players have as many or more home runs as the entire Detroit team and not one starter has made a profit. The Devil Rays, under fiery Lou Piniella, have shown improvement, but not on the road where they are only 2-7 (-$100). Gary Knotts only outing at home was a good one (2.57 ERA). Let?s give him a look against all comers, possible as an underdog at Comerica. PREFERRED: Knotts.
Texas at Cleveland (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Rangers are 1-3 (-$120) vs. lefties on the road so far in ?03, averaging only 1.8 runs per game, and were a combined 10-30 vs. southpaws on the road in 2001 and 2002. That brings us to Cleveland?s C.C. Sabathia who is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Rangers with a 3.57 ERA in 17.2 innings. Ricardo Rodriguez is not a southpaw, but he?s got a 1.38 ERA at home (2.73 overall) and he?s certainly worth a look against the poor traveling Rangers. BEST BET: Sabathia/Rodriguez
Anaheim at Toronto (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Angels pitching has been so awful (6.35 ERA on the road) in the early going that one wonders how they won the World Series. Mike Lackey has a 7.76 ERA, Kevin Appier is on the DL, having collapsed no doubt under the weight of a 7.36 ERA and Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn have been ineffective as well. Toronto?s starters, particularly Roy Halladay & Corey Lidle, have been disappointing and the bullpen has resembled the Canadian version of a pinata (5.52 ERA). Hard to make any definitive calls in a series that should serve to pad the stats of a ton of hitters. PREFERRED: None.
Kansas City at Baltimore (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Are the Royals (17-5, +$1565) this good? Most certainly not, but we must respect a team on a run. If there?s a chink in the Royals? armor however, it?s that the starting pitching, with the exception of the Runelvys Hernandez (1.36 ERA), is mediocre at best, and the Orioles are 3-1 (+$165) at home vs. southpaws . We?ll stick our neck out a bit and play the Birds vs. any KC lefty, perhaps at attractive underdog prices. BEST BET: Hernandez/Orioles vs. lefthanders.
Seattle at Chicago W. Sox (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The White Sox, have excelled vs. lefties at home (3-0, +$300, with 9.0 runs per game). The Mariners? Jamie Moyer has never been much of a road pitcher (4.77 ERA this year) and is an automatic go against if he gets a turn. Buehrle, Colon & Loaiza are a combined 6-0 (+$600) at Comiskey. We?ll take that trio regardless of the opponent or the price (Mariners -$205 vs. righthanders thus far). BEST BET: Buehrle/Colon/Loaiza/White Sox vs. Moyer.
The Rockies have been much more competitive in the early weeks of the new season, thanks to their dominance at Coors Field. But they are a very different team away from home (only 4-9, -$355), and that will make it hard on them when they come into Wrigley. The Cubs under Dusty Baker are getting excellent pitching (3.23 team ERA, 3rd best in the NL) and have posted a solid 8-3 mark at home against righthanders (+$295). Avoid Chacon (+$545, 1.04 ERA), who has emerged as a powerhouse hurler for Colorado, but the rest of staff will be hard pressed to salvage any victories here. BEST BET: Cubs vs. all righthanders except Chacon.
N.Y. Mets at Milwaukee (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Mets had a decent homestand, but they?ve been awful away from Shea Stadium (3-7, -$435), and we?re not all that anxious to take them at Miller Park when they come stumbling in after a series in St. Louis and with the Dodgers on deck. The Brewers aren?t much of a team, but they have outhit the Mets by nearly 30 points, so we?ll consider taking them if the price is right. It should come as no surprise if the home team comes away with 2 out of 3 against this opponent. BEST BET: Brewers at +135 or better.
Florida at Houston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Marlins are getting some excellent pitching right now (3.29 ERA among starters last 10 days). while the Astros are struggling to keep their heads above water. They?ve been horrible against righthanders so far (8-11, -$705 with only 4.2 runs per game) and they haven?t gotten the performances from their top two starters they so desperately need (Oswalt -$395, Miller -$235 with a 5.11 ERA). Florida is averaging 5.4 runs per game vs. righties (+$310) and we could get some favorable matchups at very generous underdog prices. BEST BET: Marlins when righty meets righty.
Montreal at St. Louis (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Expos are making money in all settings right now (15-10, +$490 overall), at home and on the road, vs. righties and vs. lefties. They?ve got the lowest team ERA in the majors (2.86) and their all-righty rotation is ideally suited to deal with the Cardinals? potentially potent attack. St. Louis is off to another of their patented slow starts, and their numbers against righthanders are unimpressive to say the least (9-11, -$340). Armas is on the DL, but Montreal has a number of hurlers with excellent numbers, at least two of whom could see action here. BEST BET: Vazquez/Ohka.
Atlanta at Arizona (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
It looked like the Braves? reign atop the NL East was over, but they?ve come roaring back in recent weeks (7-2, +$410 last 10 days) to re-assert themselves as the team to beat in the division. Arizona?s run production against rightanders is shockingly low (only 2.9 per game so far), and the two big guns in their starting rotation have both missed starts already this year. Randy Johnson has been the biggest disappointment (-$820, 6.95 ERA), but he?ll probably be heavily favored in this game nonetheless. Atlanta fares well vs. lefties (5-1, +$400, 6.2 runs per game) and we?re also prepared to take an improved Greg Maddux (2.13 ERA last two starts) when he takes the hill this weekend. BEST BET: Maddux/Braves vs. Johnson.
Philadelphia at San Diego (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Normally we?d be taking a long hard look at the visiting Phillies, but the Padres looked very good against Chicago and Cincinnati last week, and despite weak overall numbers (4.90 team ERA), they?ve got three strong starters who could slow down the Phillies? attack. The visitor is a lackluster 5-4 on the road so far, and our favorite pitcher on the staff (Padilla, 2.31 ERA) isn?t expected to take a turn. We?ll check back on game day. BEST BET: None.
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Dodgers are getting great pitching (3.13 ERA, 2nd best in the NL) but the Pirates aren?t far behind (3.36) and they could be an excellent value here at Chavez Ravine. They?ve turned a nice profit as a road team thus far in ?03 (6-3, +$460) and their starters can throttle the anemic LA offense (-$425 with only 3.6 runs per game vs. righties). Suppan (1.89 ERA) is certain to start, and we might see Benson (2.36) depending on how the rotation is configured. We?ll use one or both if we can. BEST BET: Suppan/Benson.
Cincinnati at San Francisco (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Reds could always be counted on to turn a profit once they left the confines of Riverfront/Cinergy, but the early numbers in 2003 are not encouraging (only 3-7 as a visitor, 10-15, -$155 overall). Currently they are listed dead last both on hitting (.230 team BA) and in pitching (5.84) so their chances against the 18-6 (+$1060) SF juggernaut appear pretty bleak. But we?re not big fans of laying prices of at least 2 to 1 if not higher, so we?ll pass. BEST BET: None.
Oakland at NY Yankees (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Most experts predict that the Yankees and Athletics will eventually square off in October to determine who wins the AL pennant. One side of the bracket looks like a safe bet as the Bronx Bombers (20-5, +$880 overall) continue to roll. But Oakland has fallen back after a fast start and will continue to struggle until 2002 MVP Miguel Tejada (.163) starts to play like one. The Yankees are the choice when Roger Clemens (2.12 ERA) takes the ball (27-6 in Yankee Stadium over the last three years), most likely in a marquee match vs. Cy Young winner Barry Zito on Sunday. BEST BET Clemens.
Minnesota at Boston (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Last season?s Central division champs are struggling big time (10-14, -$500 so far) or maybe it?s just a case of going up against the Yankees too early and too often. But the Red Sox have come out of the gate at full speed, especially at Fenway where they are 7-2 (+$145). The Sox are likely to face at least a couple of struggling righthanders, neither of whom has an ERA that gives us much cause for concern. BEST BET: Red Sox vs. Reed & Lohse.
Tampa Bay at Detroit (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Up to now, it?s been impossible to recommend the woeful Tigers. Detroit (3-20, -$1235 overall) is hitting below .185, a number of opposing players have as many or more home runs as the entire Detroit team and not one starter has made a profit. The Devil Rays, under fiery Lou Piniella, have shown improvement, but not on the road where they are only 2-7 (-$100). Gary Knotts only outing at home was a good one (2.57 ERA). Let?s give him a look against all comers, possible as an underdog at Comerica. PREFERRED: Knotts.
Texas at Cleveland (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Rangers are 1-3 (-$120) vs. lefties on the road so far in ?03, averaging only 1.8 runs per game, and were a combined 10-30 vs. southpaws on the road in 2001 and 2002. That brings us to Cleveland?s C.C. Sabathia who is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Rangers with a 3.57 ERA in 17.2 innings. Ricardo Rodriguez is not a southpaw, but he?s got a 1.38 ERA at home (2.73 overall) and he?s certainly worth a look against the poor traveling Rangers. BEST BET: Sabathia/Rodriguez
Anaheim at Toronto (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The Angels pitching has been so awful (6.35 ERA on the road) in the early going that one wonders how they won the World Series. Mike Lackey has a 7.76 ERA, Kevin Appier is on the DL, having collapsed no doubt under the weight of a 7.36 ERA and Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn have been ineffective as well. Toronto?s starters, particularly Roy Halladay & Corey Lidle, have been disappointing and the bullpen has resembled the Canadian version of a pinata (5.52 ERA). Hard to make any definitive calls in a series that should serve to pad the stats of a ton of hitters. PREFERRED: None.
Kansas City at Baltimore (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Are the Royals (17-5, +$1565) this good? Most certainly not, but we must respect a team on a run. If there?s a chink in the Royals? armor however, it?s that the starting pitching, with the exception of the Runelvys Hernandez (1.36 ERA), is mediocre at best, and the Orioles are 3-1 (+$165) at home vs. southpaws . We?ll stick our neck out a bit and play the Birds vs. any KC lefty, perhaps at attractive underdog prices. BEST BET: Hernandez/Orioles vs. lefthanders.
Seattle at Chicago W. Sox (3) 2nd, 3rd, 4th
The White Sox, have excelled vs. lefties at home (3-0, +$300, with 9.0 runs per game). The Mariners? Jamie Moyer has never been much of a road pitcher (4.77 ERA this year) and is an automatic go against if he gets a turn. Buehrle, Colon & Loaiza are a combined 6-0 (+$600) at Comiskey. We?ll take that trio regardless of the opponent or the price (Mariners -$205 vs. righthanders thus far). BEST BET: Buehrle/Colon/Loaiza/White Sox vs. Moyer.
