What are we waiting for - it's Derby Day

[Jimboski]

Since I was able to keep my head above water, well pretty much :s1:, at the jig saw puzzles (what a freakin meet) at A.C., I might as well take a crack at this puzzle of puzzles.

Before I start "sounding" like I'm confident about these picks - I gotta state,"Pick a wiener out of this mess... are you kidding?".

Ok, here are the PLICKS:

After spending a LOT of (wasted?) time with this race, I did come up with a nice priced hoss that I got rated well ahead of the others

The pp lines are very impressive to me. F'rinstance, look at that Risen Star race - El Padrino closed like a freight train AFTER a grueling 7/8ths of a mile. He gets an excellent route jockey in Bejarano and already has an even better than that trainer, Pletcher.
Thought I was all set for this big race, but then I came to realize that this horse appears to be tailing off after that great effort. Watched the replay of his last race and it does look like he lost the pizazz he had at the Fairgrounds. His latest workout is further proof as well. UGH. Also, look how he beat Borel's hoss in Jan (blew by that one in the stretch and won by open lenghts) and how he did vs. that one in the recent Fla. Derby. SHEEET!
I ain't getting off this top rated 20-1 shot, but I sure as hell ain't gonna bet him like I thought I would previously and would get off him all together if it wasn't for Pletcher calling the shots.

Sleepers? Of course.... got 3, Alpha, Creative Cause (maybe), and Rousing Sermon. Ain't gonna write a book on any cause nobody cares... but, I do want to just mention something about "DUTCHING". If you know what that is.. I believe you (not me though) could probably "dutch" around 5 or maybe even 6 horses in this race, including ONE of the favorites and still be profitable. So, 3 side bets are on my platter. Alpha may get bet down a little; Created Cause I gotta see on the track before I do anything with that nut case; Sermon? Oh yeeah, I'll be on that one across the board (win/place/show@2x). Just MAYBE that 50-1 morning liner will be another Sarava (Belmont Stakes wiener). I sure hope so.
Padrino will just be a WIN bet cause I plan on putting him in "top/bottom" zactas.

Have fun watching this race.

 

[hogman14]

Hey Jimmy

Many true hoss players have mixed reviews on this one, as the voyuers to the sport come in and try to get in on the excitement. I say welcome, as the pots just keep getting fatter and fatter. This is a tough race to cap...i save my pencil for the Belmont (2-0 last 2 years, respectively).

That said, I'm gonna give some $$ to the prize pool.

Perf Box
Take Charge Indy
Union Rags.

Wish everyone here the best.

Sorry I've been absent here...my new job doesn't allow me much time to watch TVG on the clock w/my boss, while we frantically fund my account.

Also planning a wedding for July, so I gotta get that squared away as well.

Hope all is well players.

 

[joeyd]

4/10/19.. 30.00 ex box that's it for me and good luck.ill miss the race dammit will be out to dinner with the wife and mom.

 

[Hamster]

Severe overnight thunderstorms (approx 1:30 am to daybreak) produced 1 1/4 inches of rain. Track: Sloppy. Turf: Good.

 

[Jimboski]

More stuff

More stuff

Thanks for stopping in MJers. Looks like the wind and heat dried up the track, Hammy. May not be too good for my picks; they'd move up in some slop.

Just a couple of final thoughts (DON'T let anything take you off your pLicks, it's anybody's race methinks)

See that speedball in here, no. 9, who EVERYbody expects to pack it in well before the stretch run. My figures say he DOESN'T

BUT, those figures are for sprints. Who KNOWS that he will stop going longer though? Already got him top/bot with a few others. ONE stinkin dollar.

That Alpha hoss is currently at 21-1. Very nice odds for a horse like that.

Still having a tough time, trying to separate the two favorites. NOT for a straight WIN bet, but I do want to use one of them in zactas and maybe in ONE trifecta even though I DON'T play lotteries.

Odds going down on that there "Sermon" hoss, not up as I expected.

 

[Jimboski]

HOLY SHITSKI'S .. i just nailed that 10th wace zacta.

I don't know how they sent that Mikey hoss off at 8-1 (11-1 when I betem). He's a VERY good one and is 9 for 12 on that turf (wieners, that is), got the rail, and Bravo... what the hell more do they want? He's very much like Shackleford who won earlier today.

THANK YOU TO the MJer who taught me about that horse. Check the archives and you'll find a BIG race at Monmouth over a year ago. I picked a different horse in that race and an MJer (name started with an S .. or maybe it waz Mully??) asked me why I didn't pick Mike before that race. I wrote back that I thought he'd bounce.

Yeah, he bounced alright... right into the winner's circle that day. That MJers lesson pays for way more that I may lose in the Derby. Played Mike with 4 horses and don't ask me why one of them was the 5 (think it was on account of Flores). I'l take $200+ for a buck anyday

 

[Jimboski]

Great to see all the Peeper filling all the chairs in this place. COME BACK AGAIN and bring a keyboard withyas, Peeps, you can make moola in this game.

MJers, I'm pretty sure you won't be able to put the bets in (I had a hard time getting my Derby bets in earlier) but I'l see if I can post any decent L@@KERS for the Derby. Right after the post parade.

 

[Jimboski]

Won't be able to post lookers, just too many horses.

One thing I did see is Rags looks better than Bod..

 

[Jimboski]

Just wrapping this up.

Just wrapping this up.

Don't know whether to laugh or cry. Actually, the choice has to be LAUGH. What happened to me on Sat. has happened to me before - you know, play a BIG race at a track you normally don't play and catch a big shark in one of the undercard races. But this one was a freakin WHALE!

Think it may have been Sharky who turned me on to "Mike". That horse was coming off two great AND GRITTY races and the race he was in on the day we discussed it was a Stake race. After having to use his early speed really hard in both of his previous races and hanging on to beat fields of very good colts; I just couldn't see him pulling off another win ESP. vs. the kind of horses he had to face on that day. Not sure, but I think Shakelford and at least one other Triple Crown runner was in the race too To my surprise, Mike did it again, wire to wire again too. He sure got my respect after that.

The funny thing about yesterday was that I STOPPED CAPPING THE RACE as soon as I saw Mikey (he was no. 1 yesterday) and that's the best thing that happened to me all day too cause I probably woulda screwed up that exacta if I did handicap the whole race. Just made a kinda "fun bet" (dollar exactas) cause the race was televised. It was FUN alright. Something else.

Misc. stuff
Looks like none of the folks who I KNOW read my stuff tailed me.. and that's GREAT! But, with 400 plus views, I gotta believe I may have costed at least a few Peepers a few bucks. Good thing thems are PEEPERS.
Still. sorry bout the terrible, terrible pLicks.

The BIG race? It was the most boring Derby I recall ever seeing. Had absolutely no interest in that winner. Only interesting thing that happened in that race was Bode taking the lead from the git go. The rest was absolute Dullsville.

Checked out the Philly results for yesterday and they had a GOOD number of Philly style exacta payoffs. Think I'll take Sunday off and just enjoy my good LUCK on Sat. but I will be back at the good ole stomping grounds (Phillly Park) on Monday for certain.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.