I know i'll get the smart ass answer of a point, but really what is the difference when you look at it closer? The chance the game is decided by 5 pts is very very slim as we would need a two pt conversion or possibly failure or even more unlikely a safety. So, I don't really understand all this extreme upside in waiting to play Seattle thinking it will go up to 5'. I doubt it goes to 6, but that obviously makes sense to grab six b/c that is a very likely margin of victory (as well as the 4). I guess you could sell the pts back doing the action pt option some offshores offer. Anyone else share or disagree with this opinion??
What is the difference between 4' and 5'??
- Thread starter s_dooley24
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s_dooley24 said:
Its a question of value. I havent made my play yet, but if I was backin Seattle, I'd rather get +4 at +105 or +110 b/c everyone is playing pitt. The payout is worth more to me than the extra half a point that you would get for a standard +4.5 -110.
DerekNJND said:
i understand waiting for the 4', but like Vinnie said in another post 5 and 5' are pretty much dead numbers in football
s_dooley24 said:
exactly, thats why I said I would rather have the 4 with a +105 than a 4.5 at -110. In other words, the half point wont matter, so gimme the better payout
DerekNJND said:
It would matter if Steeler's won
17-13
21-17
24-20
27-23
28-24
31-27
and those are all very possible scores...there is a difference in 4 to 4', but no difference in 4' to 5' imo
s_dooley24 said:
Besides payout purposes, your point is a worthless one.
First of all, have you ever heard of a push? Yeah pushes hurt because you dont WIN, but I surveyed 100 people and all 100 said they'd rather have a PUSH than LOSE!
Second, there is value in having an extra point. Handicapping begins with predicting a score, and hence a margin of victory. If your projected score is close, for example, I have steelers winning by 6-7 points, one point makes ALL the difference.
Third, I didnt do statistical research to back this up, but I will if need be. You say theres no difference between 4.5 and 5.5?? If you dont have a predicted score in your mind, as I stated above, the likelihood of a team winning by 5 is just as good as the likelihood of them winning by 4. Its just as easy to see the scores you listed as it is to see:
21-16
28-23
18-13
31-25
I could go on forever. There are three major points in footall: 1, 3, 7. All are extremely worthwhile to buy a hook because 3 and 7 are the most common margins of victory. After that, none is statistically more common than the others to forgo the extra value
DerekNJND said:
That statement is incorrect, I don't have a % of the difference in margin of victory between 4 and 5 nor am I going to search for one. But simple common sense will tell you that scores in football are made in increments of 3 or 7 99.9% of the time. That leaves you with a very real possible margin of victory of 4. Also, I would be willing to be that a margin of 5 is very unlikely as compared to that of 4. You may want to step back and think about your statement above.
DerekNJND said:
I never mentioned buying pts. The genesis of my thread was referring to people who were waiting to play Seattle b/c they thought the line was going to move up in their favor. My point was simple there is really no difference in catching 4' or 5 or 5' in an NFL games because 5 and 5' are dead numbers. I highly doubt this line moves all the way up to 6 which would be the next live number after 4'. The only real value imo to wait to play Seattle is for moneyline bettors or if your book offers the option of action pts (where you sell pts back to the book for +money).
DerekNJND said:
If you believe that buying the hook off of 7 is profitable please read below...
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=211792&highlight=buying+points
s_dooley24 said:
you just shot yourself in the foot. If theres no difference between 6.5, 7, and 7.5, then whats the difference between 4 and 5? None.
Like I said above, if you handicap a game, you should have a final score in mind. If you have a final score, then you have a margin of victory. If you think the Steelers are going to win by 4, lets say for arguments sake, you arent going to bet the HOUSE on seattle just because the line is 5 instead. And if its the other way around, say you think Pitt wins by 5. You arent gonna bet the house on Pitt just because the line is 4 are ya?
Its a value argument. If you are a pitt backer, the only people that see true value in the line are those who think pittsburgh will win by 7+. If they predict pitt to win by 7+, there is NO DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER between 4 and 5.
My point is the difference between 4 and 5, is the same as the difference between 4.5 and 5.5. You say theres no difference between one, but a huge difference in the other. that is false
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DerekNJND said:
There is a huge difference between 6', 7, and 7' obviously. Because 7 is a key number. All that article states is that it isn't smart/beneficial to buy off of 7 according to past statistics. According to the numbers its only smart to buy off the key number of 3. Of course if the book moves then number off 7 it could be beneficial if you get the line in your favor. You're talking about buying pts I am not.
And i will state for the final time there is virtually no difference between 4', 5, and 5'.
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Excerpt:
The ten most meaningful pointspreads are 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 17. (Not in that order, however.) Almost two-thirds of all NFL games can be expected to end with one or another of only those ten margins of victory. Consequently, a bookmaker needs a very good reason to move his line either off or onto one of those ten key numbers. When the bookmaker does move his line from or to one of those ten numbers, it's usually because he's having difficulty getting enough action on both sides of the bet.
Hopefully you can dedude from that there is a big difference in getting 4 and 4'. Its not going to decide a win as opposed to a loss, but it very well could decide a win from a push which hopefully you can appreciate Derek.
The ten most meaningful pointspreads are 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, and 17. (Not in that order, however.) Almost two-thirds of all NFL games can be expected to end with one or another of only those ten margins of victory. Consequently, a bookmaker needs a very good reason to move his line either off or onto one of those ten key numbers. When the bookmaker does move his line from or to one of those ten numbers, it's usually because he's having difficulty getting enough action on both sides of the bet.
Hopefully you can dedude from that there is a big difference in getting 4 and 4'. Its not going to decide a win as opposed to a loss, but it very well could decide a win from a push which hopefully you can appreciate Derek.
s_dooley24 said:
no bigger than the difference between 4.5 and 5.5 IF YOU HAVE A PREDICTED FINAL SCORE!! If your handicapping is so poor that you need to rely on a claim that "4 point scores are more common than 5 point scores" then you should go back to the drawing board.
THATS MY POINT
my scenario has Pittsburgh winning by 6. PLEASE EXPLAIN the difference between 4.5 and 4 if pittsburgh wins by 6.
I wont hold my breath waiting
I wont hold my breath waiting
Obviously nothing. For the record this question wasn't posed under Derek's Scenario or Derek's World contrary to your belief. So, I guess you'll also be laying the actions pts back to the book up to 5' because YOU'VE Pit winning by 6...
DerekNJND said:
You pretty much lost sight of the question I posed because you implied only your scenario and couldn't look past it. So, I won't be responding to any more banter on your part in this thread because it is pretty much worthless.
