what is up with the usc/ucla line next saturday?

[gardenweasel]

was over at rx and an excellent point was made....usc-3 or 3.5 over qb challenged ucla?....with that defense and weapons...shouldn`t this be around 6 or 7 at least?....i know it`s a rivalry and that it`s at ucla,but from what i`m told,the crowd at these games are almost a 50-50 split..........i hit this at 3(bought from 3.5) as this will almost certainly go up....excellent middle potential....opinions,please.

 

[Nickelback]

People need to remember for the next couple weeks that these are rivalry games! Big difference. . . in my opinion, dogs are the ONLY way to go in rivalry games or lay off them. . . but that's just me.

Good luck to you if you decide to play it.

 

[Hucklebuck]

Nickleback I agree 100%. If this was a middle of the season non-rivalry game, USC would be the easy play. In big rivalries such as this, it's take the points or pass. Betting the faves in these games will leave a nice hole in your bankroll.

 

[gardenweasel]

thanks for the response,guys

thanks for the response,guys

i see your point,but,my main point(which i didn`t clarify)was that under normal circumstances ,usc is more than 3 points better than ucla...and i believe the general public will feel the same...this line will go up and create an excellent middle opportunity...i honestly had this capped at 7...we`ll see...i hope it hits at least 4.5 or 5...i`m gonna have to off some of my initial wager....g.l.........p.s.-i agree with the rivalry angle,but,right now,i honestly think i`d like to see usc in the bcs champ game...i`m an east coast guy who has no west coast affiliation..but,i think they are playing as well as anybody in the country right now....i think they could give miami a fit....maybe iowa is playing as well....g.l.

 

[CrazyHorse]

gardenweasel,

I agree w/ you and feel USC is the best team in the PAC10, even know they did lose to WSU. However just to reiterate what the others have said I will either take the pts with the home dog or pass. Clearly if this game was just about talent USC would win by 14+ pts. But we know that is rarely the case in these games, especially when one of the teams is a home dog. People have stated that the away team still has alot of fans there but I still believe the home team in a rivalry game has a huge advantage.
Also don't forget USC beat UCLA 27-0 last yr as a 4 pt home underdog and the dog in this rivalry is 11-2 ATS in the last 13.

Much like the unbeaten letdown theory I posted earlier in the week I don't think home dogs should be blindly bet in these games but feel if you choose your spots carefully you can get some winnners. Maybe USC will just play to their talent and beat UCLA by double digits but I will keep selectively taking the dogs in these games until the trend starts to show a change. Sorry to ramble about stuff you probably already knew but I have the day off and am bored gl w/ your plays this week.

 

[gardenweasel]

well thought out,horse

well thought out,horse

and i appreciate the info...i still feel the public should bet this game up a point or 2...excellent,thoughtful post...thanks.

 

[Chenker]

I think rivalaries are tough to cap usually but honestly I think USC will beat the Bruins by at least a touchdown. I think the spread is right at -3 and that the public will bet it up a little but I still do not think the Bruins have a chance in this one:shrug:

bottom line USC will not have a let down against the Baby Bruins

 

[freelancc]

spread is at -4 and climbing...

 

[mw]

For what it's worth, UCLA is in a 59-19 ATS situation that is 5-0 so far this year.

 

[CrazyHorse]

Now at 5.5 at my book. If(big if) it hits 7 I will bet UCLA just on principle. Still believe USC is the best in the PAC10 and they have played the toughest schedule in the nation making them battle tested for any opponent. However if the home dog in this rivalry gets a TD I have to take em.

 

[greed]

UCLA

UCLA

UCLA has an excellent record coming off a bye week. This time of year a tremendous advantage. Just think their are better games out their than giving 6 to a big rival.