Whats more profitable? Puckline or $line?

[Korn]

Just curious if anyone out there has any stats on what is more profitable in the long run...

If playing the favourite is it better to pay the extra juice and play the ML or is it better to lay the half a goal???

If playing the dog is it better to get the increased odds on the ML or is it better to take the half goal???

My natural tendacies is to play the favourite -.5 goal when playing a favourite and when playing a dog i'll usually take the ML...

So if anyone has any stats on this... for example say from last season if you were to play EVERY favourite -.5 goals what the result would be compared to if you played every favourite on the ML.... and same thing with the dogs...

Thanks in advance!

GL
Korn

 

[trademaster]

"My natural tendacies is to play the favourite -.5 goal when playing a favourite and when playing a dog i'll usually take the ML... "


That is the way i do it more $$$ that way

 

[payday]

This is copied and pasted from another site. Interesting reading for all hockey betters

MONEY LINES VERSUS PUCK LINES, A MUST READ FOR HOCKEY CAPPERS
OK - I have done the math for the -1/2 + juice versus the pick minus juice. It has always been a struggle to figure out to lay the half or not, or to take the +0.5 or not.
Assume that you are a 50% capper. Let's assume that your line choices are:

-1/2 +110 or
Pick -125

This represents a $.35 cost to buy a 1/2 goal, which is seems statistically sound. OK, you place 100 bets. If ties are at 10%, then 10 of these 100
will be ties. As a 50% capper, you will pick 45 out of the
remaining 90 correct, and 45 not correct. Let's look at the -1/2 +110 side:

45 winners would yield $495 with $10 bets.
45 losers would yield $450 of losses
The 10 ties would be losses as well, since you are laying a 1/2, adding $100 to your loss total.

Combined total:

$55 loss

To be expected as a 50% capper. But look at the other way, Pick -125

The same 45 winners yield $450
The same 45 losers lose $562.50 now, and the 10 ties push.

Net loss $112.50

Same percentage, much bigger loss.

Now, bump up the winning percentage to 55%. 55% of 90 bets (the other 10
are ties) is 49.5.
At -1/2 +110

49.5 winners would yield $544.50
40.5 losers would lose $405.00
10 additional losers from ties $100

Net gain $39.50

Now look at Pick -125

49.5 winners $495 gain
40.5 losers $506.25 loss

Net loss $11.25

In this scenario, by laying -125, you need to hit more than 55% of your games to break even. Ouch!


Same holds for +0.5. Assume +0.5 -145 or Pick -110 are your choices. Again, the cost of a 1/2 goal in the NHL seems to be about 35 cents on average.

50% capper

+0.5 -145

55 winners $550 gain
45 losers $652.50 loss

net loss $102.50

Pick -110

45 winners $450 gain
45 losers $495 loss

net loss $45

Assume 55% +0.5 -145

59.5 winners yields $595
40.5 losses loses $587.25

Gain $7.75

At Pick -110

49.5 winners yields $495
40.5 losers loses $445.50

Gain $49.50

So what does all this mean? Lay the half goal on the favorite, and play the money line when on the dog (don't take the half goal). Your chances of winning are better when taking the half goal, but you incur a bigger loss when you lose.

 

[acehistr8]

I decided this year to stick to strictly a majority ML dogs and a few puckline dogs. So far it has been profitable. I think MLB showed me this year that finding the value dogs and playing them as a rule is the way to go for me. Some people swear by favorites though, I guess it is whatever works for you.

 

[ddubs]

good read, thanks for the post.

 

[Avalanche]

Payday that was some great info - thanks for sharing it!!

I personally do not take big ML favorites ever. I do, however, take big DOGS on the ML like you do.... Especially after a long road trip by the favorite. I think the puck line is a better way to go when betting a favorite hands down.

GLTA