What's with totals this year?

[yyz]

They all seem to be priced "off the wall".

One side will be -140 and the other +120

I have never seen so many lopsided prices. Are books THAT scared to change the runs given?

What gives?

 

[goldcupsports]

I really think that with it being baseball and the superbowl killing off some books. I think most bookmakers don't want the exposure moving off there numbers. So instead they move the money. This has been going on for years but I do agree this is the worst I have seen it in sometime. One thing I have noticed on totals if they price moves 15-20 cents one way bet the other side. Especially if it gets in the -140 range. Also by moving the money instead of the number you will get more buy back from scalpers to help even out the action.

 

[goldcupsports]

Yyz,

really shocked this didn't get more of a response. I guess I am the only one who follows lines all day long.... Makes me feel like a loser....... I will be the first to say this.. If you don't follow lines and get a understanding of movement you will lose over the long haul. You can look at stats until you are blue in the face but all those numbers are all ready factored into the line. I would say at best I spend maybe a hour and a half looking over stats. The rest of the time it is watching the lines move.....

 

[Antonio]

GC then we must be losers together, because line movement plays into 65% of my handicapping.

 

[goldcupsports]

SO be it we are both line following losers

 

[dr. freeze]

i agree.....i don't have time right now, but when i need a few days off and have nothing better to do sitting around watching TV, handicapping, and watching lines move.....very fascinating.......

i think to be a good handicapper, you have to know what is going on or have a good idea to knowing what is going on when lines jump....know who is moving them, why are they moving, etc. etc.

 

[Terryray]

yup, the book's money moves are definitely an effort to cut losses some more. Some books barely break even on bases, they just want to keep the bettors there for the football season.

I don't watch line or money moves much, maybe I should!

Stats are worked into the line, but I like subjective angles and emotion worked into it to. Schilling and Morris got something to show each other, and Moyer wants "pitchers revenge". So I'm taking

under 7 AZ/Stl -115
under 8.5 Seattle/Oak -130

how is the money moving on these? Judging from opening line of Donbest screen, not much if any..

 

[goldcupsports]

Well as for Arizona UNDER opened @ 7U -125 Most places have dropped this to 7 UNDER -115. With the lone place Carib which hung 7.5 -150. Carib for the most part is a square shop which tells me that @ 7 Under they where getting heavy public action. So they moved up @ half laid a ton of juice to get some even action on Over for + money.

under 8.5 Seattle/Oak Not sure what book you got that number @ but it shows that shopping could get you that same game @ -20 instead of the -30 that you payed. This game opened @ 8 Over 25 but was reversed to 8 UNDER 125 at most places. That seems like a drastic move and seems like your on the right side.

 

[Terryray]

Wow! thanks for the info!

I got opening lines from free donbest screen. the big move on under in Oak first looked to me like a misprint.

the Oak line there was from rio. but I now noticed the fine folks at canbet have it for 20 as you mentioned.

 

[dr. freeze]

hey goldcup.....i have a great idea:

start a thread every day monitoring line movement....when i get a chance, i will sure help.....but it would be a great tool to see and maybe more and more people could help analyze the line movement and we could get a better handle each day what is going on.....

 

[MoDOc]

Sportsbooks, especially here in Vegas, are becoming more conservative. They are catering to horse players and want that 17% on all race money. Some books here are not posting NBA lines until the playoffs, hedging against the sharp players.

 

[goldcupsports]

Sounds like a great idea but with all the line watching I do and I have other eneavors it would really press me for time. I will start a thread when I get time which some weeks is 7 days a week and others it's maybe twice a week. Let me put some thought into it and see what I can come up with.

 

[goldcupsports]

Sportsbooks, especially here in Vegas, are becoming more conservative. They are catering to horse players and want that 17% on all race money. Some books here are not posting NBA lines until the playoffs, hedging against the sharp players.

Yes LV is not what it once was that's for sure. THe Real bookmakers are all offshore. I did see a interview with a LV bookmaker and he said that they guys offshore are the real bookmakers now a days and I think you can see that by some of the numbers they post. I really thinkever since LV went so coperate they wanted to make sure they had low risk at the sportsbook. The days Of Bob Mcune and Bob Stupack are over.

 

[loophole]

it's more than nostalgia that keeps me playing with locals, especially in baseball season. my guy has a straight dime line on all totals and on all sides up to -200, where it goes to fifteen cents, and twenty cents at -250. plus he's as steady as a rock, more so than most offshores, and not a bad guy to boot. that's pretty hard to top in this day and age.

 

[forest]

excellent thread...

line moves are extremely important to my bases system, 1st thing every morning before i go to work, i write down the early lines so I can track them during the day, i always enjoy watching the line moves just to see who's backing who

loop, agree with the local book also, i think its a benefit now a days to utilize both local and offshore, my local never has totals more than $.20 over or under, which is nice when they might go to -140 offshore
local really pays off during college football, being in the south, local usely gets heavier action on the local town favs like fsu, florida, or alabama; offshore lines usually give me a better overall understanding where the world wide money is going...last yr al/auburn right before kick off offshore line went from auburn -2.5 to pk, local still had auburn -3; happens often

 

[goldcupsports]

I think there is still a place for locals. As you said your gives you true dime lines up to -200. That is pretty hard to beat. Most locals that I have ever dealt with always seem to have shaded lines one way or the other. Some bookies it is favorites others it's dogs. I think the more and more folks discover the internet the less and less you will see of locals. I know on 3 occasions where locals where tapped out by guys like myself betting into there week lines. As in for overall line movement in baseball I think there is much more importants in watching the money move on totals than sides. Many more scalping chances on totals.