Wheels of Confusion Saturday
- Thread starter EXTRAPOLATER
- Start date
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EXTRAPOLATIONS
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yesterday: 4-1 +3.6
BB(10days): 41-30 +19.5
Lucky on all of them.
Playing 4 today, myself, but I'll list the probabilities I fathom.
I'm keeping records on my how well certain % ranges are doing, as naturally I'd like to see 2/3 of my 66%'s coming in, e.g., to see if I'm close at all. Higher or lower and I'm missing value or finding it when it's not there. Started a new system this year, which tries to take account for all I can get my hands on. Large enough survey and I'll have a better idea. I'll have a month's worth of (more refined system) numbers in a few days ... should be interesting.
PASSING ON:
Philly 60%, -130 negligable (I generally want +5, get about +3 here)
Cards/Yanks coin-flip with Morris not 100%, and Pettitte standing a better chance @Ruth house than anywhere else. Line looks right.
Dodgers 53%, w/bats about even, rather small pitching edge to LA (BP here ... Ashby is not the answer), maybe just overcoming turf edge
Cubs 58%, as Jays offensive production was greatly (I think 3) on inning starting HR's, I expect Prior to have more success vs Jays bats (I had Jays 54% yesterday - didn't play it), and Davis AND Jays pen are likely liabilities here, despite Cubs sleepy bats. Cubs -150 would need 65 for me to touch it.
A's 62%, Harang does not instill confidence, price too high for me
Pirates 53%, w better starter ... give me dog money here
D'Backs/Twins coin-flip due to Batista having a decent edge on Mays, D'Backs almost a play for me +120 ... close but no
Bosox 60%, Redding pitching well, and Lowe (recent blister woes) has tossed a couple of nice ones so far in interleague play; Bosox at home and have offensive edge, price in -150's too much - looks even
O's 61%, edge given to starter and offense here, BP's presently about even, and edges are not huge - # (-145) app. right here too
Giants 56%, with Moss losing 6 mph off his fastball the past couple of weeks, alledgedly
rolleyes: I didn't clock him!), Giants O-edge small, and Carrasco (2 days rest - short outting) with possibility of giving the Royals something, here - # again real close, if -140
Rangers 56%, lefty won't go deep, but Rangers not hitting like a while back, and a slight edge to Marlins pen and starter, though Valdes (shoulder Q) may be picking it up - another bullseye, again if -140(ishes)
Angels 62%, with Ortiz just refusing to turn things around (and several Mets bats have hit him), Roach a major X-factor (who?!?!?!), and Angels offensive edge not nearly what it would have been, say, a month ago (i.e. Mets hitting now) - I need like better than -140 here ... guess I dream, up near -200 ... Won't touch a Roach game until I learn where he crawled out from
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PLAYS
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Mariners 70%; Hampton with a bad groin (poor wifey), M's players have beaten on him when facing, bit of an edge to M's bats with lefties going, and Moyer tossing beauty lately
A Pricey mother, but I get +8 on the -160
3.2/2
Rockies 67%; monster offensive edge, as Rocks battering lefties, Maroth recent "stomach bug" but still a bit of an edge starting, though Elarton threw a nice one vs Tigers in his career; like the bats and the inertia here ... think Elarton may excel vs the trash he's facing, gives me +10 on -130
2.6/2
Padres 61%; nice edge here to starter, smaller edge with offense; I think Lawrence can go awhile, meaning lame-ass Padres pen may have to work hard to blow it; gives me +15 at +120
3/3.6
Cubs@Jays under 9; rather unrefined totals system gives me 58%, Davis era 3.00 over past 3 (15 IP, meaning Jays pen may factor, but middle-men rested yesterday), I figure one of Wood or Prior will have a solid go vs Jays (Wood not terrible, yesterday, save the longballs ... Prior undoubtedly charting pitches), Cubs bats in a dilemma (though .274 last 10 vs L), and HP Cuzzi may help - probably won't hurt, at least - Cuzzi did a prior Prior 4-0 victory over Expos and Vazquez last April ... Cuzzi also did a 1-0 Rangers win with Davis starting, back in 2000 (last probably don't mean squiddley), +100 would produce +8 ... not terribly confident in the total system ...
1/1
May Chance Bring You Luck
EXTRAPOLATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yesterday: 4-1 +3.6
BB(10days): 41-30 +19.5
Lucky on all of them.
Playing 4 today, myself, but I'll list the probabilities I fathom.
I'm keeping records on my how well certain % ranges are doing, as naturally I'd like to see 2/3 of my 66%'s coming in, e.g., to see if I'm close at all. Higher or lower and I'm missing value or finding it when it's not there. Started a new system this year, which tries to take account for all I can get my hands on. Large enough survey and I'll have a better idea. I'll have a month's worth of (more refined system) numbers in a few days ... should be interesting.
PASSING ON:
Philly 60%, -130 negligable (I generally want +5, get about +3 here)
Cards/Yanks coin-flip with Morris not 100%, and Pettitte standing a better chance @Ruth house than anywhere else. Line looks right.
Dodgers 53%, w/bats about even, rather small pitching edge to LA (BP here ... Ashby is not the answer), maybe just overcoming turf edge
Cubs 58%, as Jays offensive production was greatly (I think 3) on inning starting HR's, I expect Prior to have more success vs Jays bats (I had Jays 54% yesterday - didn't play it), and Davis AND Jays pen are likely liabilities here, despite Cubs sleepy bats. Cubs -150 would need 65 for me to touch it.
A's 62%, Harang does not instill confidence, price too high for me
Pirates 53%, w better starter ... give me dog money here
D'Backs/Twins coin-flip due to Batista having a decent edge on Mays, D'Backs almost a play for me +120 ... close but no
Bosox 60%, Redding pitching well, and Lowe (recent blister woes) has tossed a couple of nice ones so far in interleague play; Bosox at home and have offensive edge, price in -150's too much - looks even
O's 61%, edge given to starter and offense here, BP's presently about even, and edges are not huge - # (-145) app. right here too
Giants 56%, with Moss losing 6 mph off his fastball the past couple of weeks, alledgedly
rolleyes: I didn't clock him!), Giants O-edge small, and Carrasco (2 days rest - short outting) with possibility of giving the Royals something, here - # again real close, if -140Rangers 56%, lefty won't go deep, but Rangers not hitting like a while back, and a slight edge to Marlins pen and starter, though Valdes (shoulder Q) may be picking it up - another bullseye, again if -140(ishes)
Angels 62%, with Ortiz just refusing to turn things around (and several Mets bats have hit him), Roach a major X-factor (who?!?!?!), and Angels offensive edge not nearly what it would have been, say, a month ago (i.e. Mets hitting now) - I need like better than -140 here ... guess I dream, up near -200 ... Won't touch a Roach game until I learn where he crawled out from
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PLAYS
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Mariners 70%; Hampton with a bad groin (poor wifey), M's players have beaten on him when facing, bit of an edge to M's bats with lefties going, and Moyer tossing beauty lately
A Pricey mother, but I get +8 on the -160
3.2/2
Rockies 67%; monster offensive edge, as Rocks battering lefties, Maroth recent "stomach bug" but still a bit of an edge starting, though Elarton threw a nice one vs Tigers in his career; like the bats and the inertia here ... think Elarton may excel vs the trash he's facing, gives me +10 on -130
2.6/2
Padres 61%; nice edge here to starter, smaller edge with offense; I think Lawrence can go awhile, meaning lame-ass Padres pen may have to work hard to blow it; gives me +15 at +120
3/3.6
Cubs@Jays under 9; rather unrefined totals system gives me 58%, Davis era 3.00 over past 3 (15 IP, meaning Jays pen may factor, but middle-men rested yesterday), I figure one of Wood or Prior will have a solid go vs Jays (Wood not terrible, yesterday, save the longballs ... Prior undoubtedly charting pitches), Cubs bats in a dilemma (though .274 last 10 vs L), and HP Cuzzi may help - probably won't hurt, at least - Cuzzi did a prior Prior 4-0 victory over Expos and Vazquez last April ... Cuzzi also did a 1-0 Rangers win with Davis starting, back in 2000 (last probably don't mean squiddley), +100 would produce +8 ... not terribly confident in the total system ...
1/1
May Chance Bring You Luck
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We can walk our road together
If our goals are all the same
We can run alone and free
If we pursue a different aim
Let the truth of love be lighted
Let the love of truth shine clear
Sensibility
Armed with sense and liberty
With the heart and mind united
In a single perfect sphere
(Neil Peart-Rush-Hemispheres, pt. VI, The Sphere)
We can walk our road together
If our goals are all the same
We can run alone and free
If we pursue a different aim
Let the truth of love be lighted
Let the love of truth shine clear
Sensibility
Armed with sense and liberty
With the heart and mind united
In a single perfect sphere
(Neil Peart-Rush-Hemispheres, pt. VI, The Sphere)
my friend when do you sleep
clothes are in the dryer and the damn laundry will be done before 11 am on Sat.
I have to read thru what you have written on top. Too early in the morning for me to fathom the exact depth and meaning of your words above.
Will read thru again after getting fresh and then reply.
Will defi meet up soon and another thing - the writeup's are very much appreciated by all I am sure
Cheers and good luck !!!
Spock
clothes are in the dryer and the damn laundry will be done before 11 am on Sat.
I have to read thru what you have written on top. Too early in the morning for me to fathom the exact depth and meaning of your words above.
Will read thru again after getting fresh and then reply.
Will defi meet up soon and another thing - the writeup's are very much appreciated by all I am sure
Cheers and good luck !!!
Spock
Hello EX, that was quite a writeup. If i got it right, but what`s right, it`s different for everone. I have a high school education, but i have 53 yrs on this tiny ball of energy, and matter that spins about and rotates around the sun, in the hands of the universe or what else may play as a factor in our exstience. I myself, believe in total honesty with in ones self. I have been deeply hurt in many ways, for this honesty curse i have. I suppose that anyone that is, could understand. I`m not crying in my beer or anything like that. I love life and i`m very lucky,I can`t spell the other word, f-----and apprechitive this one either, for what i have and worked hard for. I would like to discuss this as it could have a different meaning, in how a person reads into it. I don`t have time now i have to do some reading on the games today. But you have aroused my interest. Talk later,if you want.
thanks madmax...I was messin' with my head some more, 'between
I must to be forcing myself to turn off my computer...step 1
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And in the end
The love you take
Is equal to the love you make
(L&M-Beatles-Abbey Road-The End)
I must to be forcing myself to turn off my computer...step 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And in the end
The love you take
Is equal to the love you make
(L&M-Beatles-Abbey Road-The End)
