June 19, 2005 --
The great home-run hitters of this era are going, going and, in many cases, pretty close to gone. Forget about one man hitting 70 homers in 2005. It is a possibility that the Top 5 active long-ball men - Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jeff Bagwell - will not account for 70 together.
Frank Thomas, Juan Gonzalez and Jim Thome, the next three men on the active homer list, will be hard-pressed to combine for 30 homers. Gonzalez is likely done for the season and probably for his career. Bagwell just had radical shoulder surgery and may never play again. Bonds, who began the season 11 homers shy of Babe Ruth, is still 11 homers shy of Ruth as he tries to heal after multiple knee surgeries.
Consider that of the 40 active players with the most homers, only Andruw Jones was on pace to top his career high (all numbers were going into yesterday). And only Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent and Reggie Sanders were on pace to come within even five homers of their career bests. On the other hand, 17 of the 40 are on pace to hit at least 10 fewer homers this season than in 2004: Bagwell, Bonds, Sosa, Thome, Moises Alou, Bret Boone, Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Jim Edmonds, Steve Finley, Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Gary Sheffield, Ruben Sierra and Bernie Williams.
Some of this can be alibied away with unfortunate injuries, like to Guerrero and Rolen. Perhaps some to unseasonably cold weather. Perhaps a more uniform strike zone has given pitchers more areas to attack. But come on, do we have to say the "S" word out loud? We are talking significant, massive falloffs across the board. Did everyone get old in one year? Did everyone get together and pick 2005 to have an off season?
"Remember how after 9/11 the visa restrictions got tighter and a lot of players got three years older?" said Steve Hirdt, executive VP of the Elias Sports Bureau. "That time it was the birth cerbirth certificates in question. Maybe a bunch of guys aged three years this season for a completely different reason."
Or as one AL executive said, "How much do steroids have to do with slowing down the aging process? In general, a list like this is of older players who went from hitting a lot of homers to not hitting so many. It is hard to think it is not steroids."
The tougher testing program has yet to nab a star power hitter, but the fear of being caught must be working. American League designated hitters, often the haven for over-bulked, single-dimensional players, were producing a .417 slugging percentage, which is considerably lower than any time this decade.
Adrian Beltre, who led the majors in homers last year with 48, has five homers. That was the same total for Thome, who had 89 homers the past two years, which was second to only Bonds (90). Mike Piazza just ended his longest-ever homer drought (98 at-bats) to reach seven homers. Bonds, Sosa and Helton are the only three NL players to top 30 homers in each of the past six seasons. Helton just ended his career-longest homer drought (99 ABs) to reach six homers, playing his home games in Coors Field. Frank Thomas, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Giambi had five homers, as well.
Bonds, Sosa, Helton, I-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield and Palmeiro (on pace to have his fewest homers since 1990) have been implicated in some forum for illegally enhancing performance. Giambi, according to grand-jury testimony obtained by the San Francisco Chronicle, admitted his steroid use. All the others have denied it.
"I think the bad thing is that everyone is guilty until proven innocent in today's age," one AL GM said. "But I also know that I don't see as many long home runs as I had in recent years, I don't see eighth-place hitters hitting opposite-field homers and I don't see the same fast bats on a lot of the long time, premier power hitters. And you know, sometimes when it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck."
The great home-run hitters of this era are going, going and, in many cases, pretty close to gone. Forget about one man hitting 70 homers in 2005. It is a possibility that the Top 5 active long-ball men - Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jeff Bagwell - will not account for 70 together.
Frank Thomas, Juan Gonzalez and Jim Thome, the next three men on the active homer list, will be hard-pressed to combine for 30 homers. Gonzalez is likely done for the season and probably for his career. Bagwell just had radical shoulder surgery and may never play again. Bonds, who began the season 11 homers shy of Babe Ruth, is still 11 homers shy of Ruth as he tries to heal after multiple knee surgeries.
Consider that of the 40 active players with the most homers, only Andruw Jones was on pace to top his career high (all numbers were going into yesterday). And only Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent and Reggie Sanders were on pace to come within even five homers of their career bests. On the other hand, 17 of the 40 are on pace to hit at least 10 fewer homers this season than in 2004: Bagwell, Bonds, Sosa, Thome, Moises Alou, Bret Boone, Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Jim Edmonds, Steve Finley, Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Gary Sheffield, Ruben Sierra and Bernie Williams.
Some of this can be alibied away with unfortunate injuries, like to Guerrero and Rolen. Perhaps some to unseasonably cold weather. Perhaps a more uniform strike zone has given pitchers more areas to attack. But come on, do we have to say the "S" word out loud? We are talking significant, massive falloffs across the board. Did everyone get old in one year? Did everyone get together and pick 2005 to have an off season?
"Remember how after 9/11 the visa restrictions got tighter and a lot of players got three years older?" said Steve Hirdt, executive VP of the Elias Sports Bureau. "That time it was the birth cerbirth certificates in question. Maybe a bunch of guys aged three years this season for a completely different reason."
Or as one AL executive said, "How much do steroids have to do with slowing down the aging process? In general, a list like this is of older players who went from hitting a lot of homers to not hitting so many. It is hard to think it is not steroids."
The tougher testing program has yet to nab a star power hitter, but the fear of being caught must be working. American League designated hitters, often the haven for over-bulked, single-dimensional players, were producing a .417 slugging percentage, which is considerably lower than any time this decade.
Adrian Beltre, who led the majors in homers last year with 48, has five homers. That was the same total for Thome, who had 89 homers the past two years, which was second to only Bonds (90). Mike Piazza just ended his longest-ever homer drought (98 at-bats) to reach seven homers. Bonds, Sosa and Helton are the only three NL players to top 30 homers in each of the past six seasons. Helton just ended his career-longest homer drought (99 ABs) to reach six homers, playing his home games in Coors Field. Frank Thomas, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Giambi had five homers, as well.
Bonds, Sosa, Helton, I-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield and Palmeiro (on pace to have his fewest homers since 1990) have been implicated in some forum for illegally enhancing performance. Giambi, according to grand-jury testimony obtained by the San Francisco Chronicle, admitted his steroid use. All the others have denied it.
"I think the bad thing is that everyone is guilty until proven innocent in today's age," one AL GM said. "But I also know that I don't see as many long home runs as I had in recent years, I don't see eighth-place hitters hitting opposite-field homers and I don't see the same fast bats on a lot of the long time, premier power hitters. And you know, sometimes when it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck."
