Arizona at Philadelphia (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Phillies must be having nightmares about the Marlins right now, having lost six straight already this season. But they showed what they can do against a lousy team, taking all five games from the Expos. The Diamondbacks certainly qualify as a lousy team (5.92 ERA, 2nd worst in the league, .250 team BA, 4th worst). The Phillies have gotten solid work from their pitching corp (3.74 team ERA), most notably their lefthanded starters (Milton 2.65 ERA, Wolf 3.55), and Arizona is having the same trouble vs. southpaws that we saw last year (1-4, -$495 with only 4.0 runs per game so far in ?o4 . . . only 12-15, -$490 with 3.7 RPG last season). BEST BET: Wolf/Milton.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
There?s been plenty of money made by betting on the Brewers so far this season, who have started the year a surprising 10-10 (+$480). The Pirates pitching has gone cold in recent days (6.72 ERA among starters last 10) and they didn?t do all that well against their division rival in head to head play last year (only 7-10, -$615). We won?t tackle the tougher arms in the Bucs? rotation, but we will definitely take a shot against a pair of struggling righthanders. BEST BET: Brewers vs. Fogg & Vogelsong.
Cincinnati at Houston (4) 30th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Reds were a great proposition on the road last year (+$480) and against righthanders in all settings (+$1175) and the same pattern is holding true so far in 2004 (+$405 as visitors, +$935 vs. righties). So far the Astros are not faring well at home (only 4-6, -$610) and with Pettitte on the sidelines, they are going with an all-righty rotation. Houston has been overpriced since opening day, if the Reds can split the series they?ll profit nicely. BEST BET: Reds in all games.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (4) 30th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
The Cubs have caught fire, winning 7 straight and 9 of their last 11 (+$490) with both offense and pitching performing as had been expected (.288 team BA, 3.90 team ERA). The Cardinals don?t have the pitching to compete with chicago over the long haul (4.89 team ERA, 3rd worst in the NL) and their numbers here at Busch Stadium have been dreadful (only 3-7, -$875). Maddux is the only weak link in a rotation at the moment, but he?s not likely to see action, so the field is wide open. BEST BET: Cubs in all games.
Atlanta at Colorado (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Braves scored a perfect 6-0 sweep against the Rockies in 2003 (+$600) but it?s never easy coming into Coors Field as a visitor (Colorado (+$1415 last year) and Atlanta certainly appears less formidable than was the case in the past. The Braves have only averaged 3.5 runs per game in four tries vs. lefthanders this year, not surprising considering the loss of Sheffield and Lopez. Joe Kennedy (+$220, 2.49 ERA) has looked very comfortable in this setting, and is set to make his 5th start over the weekend. We we?ll look for him to keep a lid on the opposing hitters. BEST BET: Kennedy.
N.Y. Mets at San Diego (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Mets are fading fast in the NL East once again (7-12, -$640), and may find themselves looking up at Montreal in the standings by the time this west coast swing is over. Lack of hitting, which plagued them in 2003 is again the problem (.229 team BA, 2.8 runs per game vs. righthanders), and it won?t get any better against the superior San Diego rotation (3.89 team ERA). Eaton is not expected to take a turn, but Peavy (1.54 ERA) and Valdez (3.09) are likely to see action. We?ll use them when they go. BEST BET: Peavy/Valdez.
Montreal at Los Angeles (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Dodgers are the winningest team in the NL right now, and they?ve excelled against righthanders (10-3, +$795), something they?ll see plenty of against this rotation. The Expos have a very respectable mound corps (3.52 team ERA, 2nd best in the NL), but their run production has been worse than anything we can ever remember (.203 team BA with only 1.7 runs per game). We won?t go near any team with such severe deficiencies, but prices on LA will be sky high here at Chavez Ravine, and their pitching has been average at best (4.22 ERA). We?ll pass for now. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at N.Y. Yankees (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
At 8-11, the Yankees have been an unmitigated disaster in April, with a league worst .221 team BA and -$1035 in losses against righthanders so far. With an impatient owner and tough AL West clubs on the upcoming menu, things could get ugly in the Bronx But the Royals are in sorry shape as well thanks to some truly woeful pitching (5.40 ERA) and we?re not particularly enthusiastic about using a team with a 1-7 (-$65) road record. We?ll take a closer look as game day draws near. BEST BET: None.
Seattle at Detroit (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
This isn?t a good time to be a Seattle backer (-$920 so far in 2004) and while we?re not convinced the Tigers can hold it together much longer, we see one excellent opportunity available in this matchup. The Mariners are having the same problems with righthanders we saw last year (-$2015 in 2003, only 3.6 RPG so far in 2004) and they?ll be in against Nate Robertson, who has looked sharp in his three starts (+$300, 3.78 ERA). BEST BET: Robertson.
Baltimore at Cleveland (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
Despite losing a pair to the Blue Jays over the weekend. Baltimore is one of the year?s more pleasant surprises (10-7, +$435). They?ve performed well on offense (.290 team BA) and have a huge pitching edge over the Tribe (3.72 ERA vs. a league worst 5.63). The O?s had terrific numbers vs. righties last year (+$905) and with the upgrade in personnel, they appear poised to improve those figures (5.9 RPG vs. righties so far). BEST BET: Orioles vs. righthanders.
Oakland at Tampa Bay (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Devil Rays weren?t much of a team in 2003 when they lost 99 games, but they did excel in one particular circumstance. Against righthanders in night games at Tropicana Field they went 26-19 for a handsome profit (+$1740). Now it?s 2004 and nothing has changed,with Tampa Bay posting a 4-1 (+$545) mark in that same situation. Hard to pass up a home underdog with that trend working for us. BEST BET: Devil Rays vs. righthanders in night games.
Boston at Texas (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
The Rangers? strong start (11-8, +$705) is especially shocking given the strong competition they?ve had to go up against. All their games have been within the AL West, and it doesn?t get any easier with the first place Bosox coming to Arlington. But Texas dominated righthanded opposition in this ballpark last year (+$1210), and they?re doing it again (6-1, +$635 in that situation so far).Their offense is tops in the majors (.308 team BA), and their team ERA (4.24) is 5th in the AL. The Red Sox were lousy on the road last year (-$1445) and their sweep in New York had more to do with the Yanks? hitting woes. Texas won?t be a soft tough, and the Boston rotation is entirely righthanded. BEST BET: Rangers in all games.
Anaheim at Minnesota (3) 30th, 1st, 2nd
We didn?t go into the season expecting to see the Twins on top in the AL Central, but there they are once again with the best record in the league (12-6, +$430). And again, it is there strong showing against righties (+$1655 in 2003, +$305 in 2004) that is making the difference. The Angels are back in the picture after last year?s disappointment, but their pitching isn?t where it needs to be to go all the way (4.88 team ERA). Colon has been sensational (2.33) but all the other starters have inflated ERA?s and will be vulnerable in the Metrodome. BEST BET: Twins vs. all righthanders except Colon.
