I would have to agree with Maryland, maybe Georgetown or Oregon St. I think Buffalo will be out to try and prove something to the committee as others have also said, so I disagree with this choice.
I think Maryland could definitely careless about this tournament, but I also think their competition throughout season will bring them away with at least a victory. You have to think that if your team is going to go out on the court, the coach, at least has to want to win, so competitive nature alone should get them the win. Definitely not touching the -10/-10.5 spread by any means.