WHO presents Value
- Thread starter wormdog
- Start date
thanks boys
liking louisville, kentucky, pitt,
Sure as hell hoping AZ dont win it as I am throwing them out.
Need that upset.
liking louisville, kentucky, pitt,
Sure as hell hoping AZ dont win it as I am throwing them out.
Need that upset.
Tourney time, what wins?
1) Guard play
2) Seniors
ARIZONA has both.
As for the Big 12 being the best conference:
UA over Texas...UA over KU at KU
As for betting "value" on teams that have no chance at makikng the tourney....Think of it this way, you are basically betting Ohio State (or USC/UCLA) on a 9 team moneyline parlay and your odds are only 200-1........ Terrible considering they would be dd dogs in all 9 games and the M/L would be close to +500/800 every game.
1) Guard play
2) Seniors
ARIZONA has both.
As for the Big 12 being the best conference:
UA over Texas...UA over KU at KU
As for betting "value" on teams that have no chance at makikng the tourney....Think of it this way, you are basically betting Ohio State (or USC/UCLA) on a 9 team moneyline parlay and your odds are only 200-1........ Terrible considering they would be dd dogs in all 9 games and the M/L would be close to +500/800 every game.
im the first one to look for a realistic longshot, but my god- ohio state cant even field a healthy team- let alone win a big 10 game, or a tourney game for that matter. i dont even think they dress all scholarship guys anymore- theyve had so many injuries.
gin23- youre right on the money with the 2 things that win in the tourney. guards and seniors.......which is why i like oregon as my longshot. granted ridnour isnt a senior- but theyve got great guards and tourney experience vs good teams.
gin23- youre right on the money with the 2 things that win in the tourney. guards and seniors.......which is why i like oregon as my longshot. granted ridnour isnt a senior- but theyve got great guards and tourney experience vs good teams.
Gman, being that I'm out west and a Pac-10 guy I'll say this: Oregon has no chance.
They are a totally different team away from Mac Court, they are weak and gutless on the road with no real inside presence. Figuring that they will be a 7 thru 10 seed I see them getting ousted in round 1 or 2. While Ridnour and Jackson can get hot, they are likely to be beat if you make it a physical game. Now they could get a good draw and play a Creighton team in Round one and then a #1/2 seed that is not very physical in round 2 (like Louisville/Fla) but for them to win 6 straight is pretty unrealistic. I think they were over-rated to begin the year so don't look too much into that "previous Top-10 team now 70-1 odds" angle. They miss Freddie Jones and Christopherson more than any preseason predictions could have imagined. Like Cal/Stanford more than Oregon.
They are a totally different team away from Mac Court, they are weak and gutless on the road with no real inside presence. Figuring that they will be a 7 thru 10 seed I see them getting ousted in round 1 or 2. While Ridnour and Jackson can get hot, they are likely to be beat if you make it a physical game. Now they could get a good draw and play a Creighton team in Round one and then a #1/2 seed that is not very physical in round 2 (like Louisville/Fla) but for them to win 6 straight is pretty unrealistic. I think they were over-rated to begin the year so don't look too much into that "previous Top-10 team now 70-1 odds" angle. They miss Freddie Jones and Christopherson more than any preseason predictions could have imagined. Like Cal/Stanford more than Oregon.
gin23:
i completely disagree. dont get me wrong, oregon could go out in the first round and lose to anybody and get embarrassed doing it, but im not all convinced that theyve got "no chance"
this is the same team that beat texas in the tourney last year, and really handled kansas impressively earlier this year. the only reason i reference those games is because those are two teams that are title contenders this year- with virtually the same team from last year.
in not convinced that oregon sans jones has "no chance". he was an athleitc, explosive wingman, but ridnour is their star. a healthy jackson only makes them tougher.
i completely disagree. dont get me wrong, oregon could go out in the first round and lose to anybody and get embarrassed doing it, but im not all convinced that theyve got "no chance"
this is the same team that beat texas in the tourney last year, and really handled kansas impressively earlier this year. the only reason i reference those games is because those are two teams that are title contenders this year- with virtually the same team from last year.
in not convinced that oregon sans jones has "no chance". he was an athleitc, explosive wingman, but ridnour is their star. a healthy jackson only makes them tougher.
put it this way:
arizona at +275
and
oregon at +7000
i dont think theres anywhere NEAR that much of a difference between the liklihood of either team winning the tourney. arizona is certainly deeper and the better team, but look at some of the other teams that are 50/1 or higher for the tourney.
boston college is 40/1 compared to ducks 70/1? ridiculous.
ohio state 50/1 compared to ducks 70/1? absolutely absurd.
its all relative, i understand that. but find me a better team in the 30/1 and higher range to win it all?
arizona at +275
and
oregon at +7000
i dont think theres anywhere NEAR that much of a difference between the liklihood of either team winning the tourney. arizona is certainly deeper and the better team, but look at some of the other teams that are 50/1 or higher for the tourney.
boston college is 40/1 compared to ducks 70/1? ridiculous.
ohio state 50/1 compared to ducks 70/1? absolutely absurd.
its all relative, i understand that. but find me a better team in the 30/1 and higher range to win it all?
Not to start an argument, but name me the last team not seeded 1-4 to win it all? It's been a LONG time and the chalk usually wins because the cinderallas can't sustain for 6 straight games.
As for Oregon, this year's team is NOT last years team. Not even close. Ridnour is playing WORSE than last year and Jackson has been banged up. Don't underestimate Freddie Jones, he WAS their best and most athletic player last year and they also lost their starting center in Christopherson who was a 7 ft physical presence down low (not to mention they lost Anthony Lever who was one of the best 3pt shooter in the Pac last year). THat's 3 of their top 7 they lost. While they scored alot last year, they also could play a little D. THis year, all they can do is score and they are TERRIBLE on the road.
Be forewarned since their remaining schedule has 4 of 6 on the road and right now they are the #5 team from a "down" Pac-10. Should they slump, finish 5th and lose in the opening round of the Pac-10 tourney, they could find themselves on the bubble especially since they are in the low 30's RPI right now. Can only drop significantly if they lose any of the next 4.
As for Oregon, this year's team is NOT last years team. Not even close. Ridnour is playing WORSE than last year and Jackson has been banged up. Don't underestimate Freddie Jones, he WAS their best and most athletic player last year and they also lost their starting center in Christopherson who was a 7 ft physical presence down low (not to mention they lost Anthony Lever who was one of the best 3pt shooter in the Pac last year). THat's 3 of their top 7 they lost. While they scored alot last year, they also could play a little D. THis year, all they can do is score and they are TERRIBLE on the road.
Be forewarned since their remaining schedule has 4 of 6 on the road and right now they are the #5 team from a "down" Pac-10. Should they slump, finish 5th and lose in the opening round of the Pac-10 tourney, they could find themselves on the bubble especially since they are in the low 30's RPI right now. Can only drop significantly if they lose any of the next 4.
cant argue that point, however, in terms of "hedge value", hedging a 70/1 team thats in the final 4 is a lot more profitable than hedging a 2/1 shot to win it all.
really, to make money, you just need your team to get to the final 4 basically.
indiana did it as a long shot.
florida did it as a long shot (had em at 30/1 their yr vs msu)
wisconsin has been there
i doubt oregon will win it all. but theyre fully capable of winning 4 games in a row as a 70/1 longshot and then hedging off that.
thats my whole philosophy.
really, to make money, you just need your team to get to the final 4 basically.
indiana did it as a long shot.
florida did it as a long shot (had em at 30/1 their yr vs msu)
wisconsin has been there
i doubt oregon will win it all. but theyre fully capable of winning 4 games in a row as a 70/1 longshot and then hedging off that.
thats my whole philosophy.
