who uses % calls for games?

[EXTRAPOLATER]

If you've seen any of my posts then you know that I come up with % calls for games, and then assess the lines based on that.

I'm curious if anybody else uses this approach.

If not, then why?

Thanks in advance for sharing,
Mike

 

[emmitt]

doesnt thunder use % plays??

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm not sure who thunder is...I'll keep my eyes open for his (hers?) posts, though.

It's a start.
Thanks emmitt.

:SIB

 

[emmitt]

ex

ex

havent seen him in the baseball room lately, he posts ncaafb nfl nba ncaabb not all that often though, his % plays are of his bankroll, for example he might have a 6%(large) play on the cubs, and would plunk down 6% of his bankroll on the cubs money management!!!
hope this helps!! bol emmitt

 

[~Buckshot~]

I believe Thunder uses a percentage of his bankroll on his plays, not basing his plays on the percentage of winner probability.

My question Extra ( Mike ), how do you come up with your percentage?

 

[gsp]

Even though I'm using mostly ump crews and situations, the plays that I post have to be over 60% on the season or I don't post them.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks for the input so far.

The percents that I'm wondering about is probability calls for the games themselves.
I'm aware that several 'cappers use a % of their bankroll to determine how much to wager, but what I'm looking for is calls on the games.

As for my %'s, I use a fairly simple formula for them. I've used it for years, for baseball (I know at least since 2004, but I think I played with it for a few years before that). It's taking me a fair bit of work this year--more than years past--as I'm trying to add in several additional modifiers. If I keep things to the basics then I can 'cap a full day's (15) worth of games in about 30 minutes. Probably takes me closer to an hour as I'm currently checking for records vs opponent's and a few other key factors.

That may not entirely explain how I'm coming up with my percents, but I currently have a book project on the go so you'll have to forgive me if I don't want to give too much away here.

My numbers are working, for the most part, but there have still been stretches where I'm getting my ass kicked...I think that there is no way to avoid such streaks in this line of work (or "hobby", for most of us). I'm half way through a full season, now, and I've been meticulously keeping a record of each call that I make to see if the numbers are anything close to accurate. I should, for example, be hitting two-thirds of any calls I make at 66%. I've been posted the stats, occasionally, and I think that they're acceptable, but I need to finish the season strong to convince myself that this system truly works. The bottom line is most important--am I making money--and so far the bottom line is good...I'm in the plus.

I'll keep asking, for a while, to see if I can find anybody else who uses such a system. If one can get a fairly accurate probability (%) for any given game then one is going to be able to spot value rather easily.

I know that there are countless factors that CANNOT be accounted for when handicapping, but I think that this information age that we're living in gives us access to enough information that a reasonable extrapolation can be reached.

I've rambled on long enough here.

Hopefully I'll get a few more responses; if not then maybe I'll try a different approach (question).

GL always,
Mike

:SIB

 

[Riskbreaker]

doing this since a few years too...
if you add modifiers, you modify a system which worked for you before (never touch a running...). those losing stretches are normal if you place your bets based on some kind of "math". focussing on value is the right thing to do in my opinion, especially in baseball which is a betting marathon.

it gets easier if you pass on extreme favs and focus on even money or dogs. take my record, i'm way below .500 and still up a few units.

gl for the rest of the season