Why do I bother????

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,476
218
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 12-14 (-1.14*)

Last week's card gave me a headache, and the games played out in matching fashion . . . I like this week's card, which means I expect to about break even.


Philadelphia(-7') over Carolina (2*)
- The contrasts with last year's game are no less striking than blue hair with yellow streaks. I like this play at least twice as much as I liked Carolina(+4')(-105)(1.25*) in the NFC Championship game last year, maybe two times twice as much, but money management capped the play where it's at . . . Reid and Johnson will have that flock of Birds poised and primed to (a) take the initiative, and (b) frustrate the less sustained initiatives generated by a Panther team teetering close to irrelevance. Even under that scenario, anxious moments are likely at the end before any payoff can be gratefully delivered and received, but the line won't be climbing to any level that will have me playing the middle with any part of the wager.

Minnesota(-3')(-108) over New Orleans (1*)
I like the matchups in the trenches and in space, I like the competing mindsets and momentum percolating through the situation, and I can even claim Minnesota as the more disciplined team in this game. I don't think a stunning overtime or desperation for same is the final chapter in this one.

Kansas City(-2')(-108) over Jacksonville (1*)
The Chiefs are being challenged to a man, which gives their OL something extra in their lunch pail to counter the Jags strength and then strike with their advantages elsewhere, and building on the best defensive performance in over a year will need to be just enough for KC to keep their season alive.

Adding . . .

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,476
218
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Adding . . .

Houston/Tennesse(Ov45') (1*)
- I've had a nice touch recently with totals, which is the first time I've ever posted that! I don't see the stop units in this game being enforcers when it comes to making the key stops, but more a case of whether the offenses are falling flat, and flat is not the way I'm calling it; what kind of has me the most worried is that Houston will solve its slow starts, but lose its 4th quarter flair.

Chicago(-1) over Washington (1*)
- I can distill down to two words the reason I keep coming back to a play on Chicago in this spot: An identity.

Seattle(+3')(-108) over New England (1*)
- A live dog and a good contest are definitely what I expect, while expectations on closing the deal are a whole other matter.

GL
 

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,476
218
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
In the midst of a rough patch, and given how the early plays were finishing up, I didn't have sufficient enthusiasm to post my late play on Denver(-2); it's a little annoying when right sides and easy winners like that don't count in the only season long record I maintain . . . Something of possible substance that actually annoyed me less was having a flash of recognition at 8:37 p.m. EDT that I had failed to post a play of Minnesota and Over in the Sunday night contest . . . When the ball isn't bouncing your way, that kind of shit happens way too often.



St.Louis(-6') over Tampa Bay (1*)

- After Philadelphia, Minnesota and Kansas City, the final cut on my next set of plays on sides came down to a tossup between Chicago, Seattle, Denver and St. Louis. I made this wager on Monday - a week ago - when I was worried that the line would climb to 7.

- Three angles: (1) I've done just fine betting against Martz and his coaching ways, but what stands out in their last two efforts is how crisp and prepared St. Louis has played in all phases; the turnovers against Seattle were overcome for precisely that reason, with some heart thrown in as well. (2) Tampa and their physical style have always been the prototype for derailing the Rams and their grandiose delusions as the greatest thing going. The fact is that neither team is what they were just a few short years ago, and as currently constituted, St. Louis earns my money in the dome tonight. (3) I like this play at least as much as any plays that emerged from my early impressions after reviewing next week's card, and that hierarchy is always one of my criteria for evaluating a play on Monday night.

GL
 
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