Why Kerry wins

[DR STRANGELOVE]

- many important state polls are more favorable to Kerry than the nationals
-- given that undecideds tend to break toward challengers, an incumbent president typically needs to be polling at or above 50% in order to signal a victory ahead; Bush has been around 47%
-- given the huge numbers of new Democratic voters, Bush needs independents; independents have been favoring Kerry by several points
-- the young are undersampled in many polls, constitute a large portion of the new registrations mentioned above, and have been favoring Kerry by a significant margin
-- Bush's approval rating (low 40s at last sighting, I think?) and right track/wrong track numbers (50-55% wrong track nationally) are not good omens for him


Kerry +120 (1 unit) at Olympic

http://www.nowchannel.com/latest/

 

[Snafu]

Pinnacle gives +145 now, i made bet at +113 earlier today....

does anyone see either winning clearly any of these states ?

Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin

Bush at Florida ( traditionally maybe....) ??

Thanks

 

[rrc]

Pinny currently has Bush -173 in New Mexico pretty decent size fave. I agree, think he wins NM.

 

[pirate fan]

Dr. You better get some Mojo going for your guy, he's gonna need it.

 

[Marra]

I am glad people are using the odds at sportsbooks to decide which canidate will win. I am sure Pinnacle has that inside information, even more than both campaigns...

 

[Snafu]

Kerry to win was +152, now +143

Bush at NM is -200 from -173


does anyone know site that shows line chances from several bookies , thanks

 

[Eddie Haskell]

Marra:

Frankly, the way these guys are able to set lines in sports, I think they probably are the best prognositicators out there as to who will win.

Eddie

 

[Master Capper]

Eddie,


Are you breaking into a conceding speech already?

 

[djv]

If the new voters in Ohio vote Kerry can win,. If they stay home because of the rain. Kerry cant win no matter what. For Kerry to win he needs Ohio.

 

[Snafu]

Kerry was while ago +152 now +115 ....

State matchups has gone more even except NM that was closed.

 

[Eddie Haskell]

MC:

No, just from my gambling days, I couldn't believe how good they were at setting lines. You know that "too good to be true" feeling. They are phenomenal it seems at getting people to bet equally on both sides of the number.

In my mind, I still think Bush wins. Greed generally wins out over ethics especially when there are, and will be, fewer and fewer dollars available in this country. In my heart, and for the sake of the country, I pray that he does not.

Ed

 

[pirate fan]

Gee Eddie, I always thought it was us republicans that were the ethical ones, although I will agree there is a lot more greeed on our side.

 

[Snafu]

21 Republican Party -106
22 Democratic Party -104 :look:


if Bush goes + side i just have to take it home,
too even to let it be

 

[smurphy]

I always thought it was us republicans that were the ethical ones

Don't confuse ethics with morals. Show me an ethical memeber of the Bush administration and I'll show you a moral Vegas stripper.

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

sorry about posting in GD...

I see Kerry is favored now...
:clap:

 

[Dr Feelgood]

Kerry is at -310 at 5 dimes???? :scared :shocked: