I've seen a lot of posts refering to the strong system of dogs covering pre Jan 1st and the favs taking over in the new year - which has been lucrative in the past but has started out slow this year (nice win for the Houston backers tonight - congrats). While this is only a theory of mine as to why things haven't worked out for the dogs thus far, I think it has some merit.
Here it goes:
First - automatic bids from the "major" conferences are watering down some bowls, providing mismatches, and allowing the favs to rout. While this has been the case in the past, I think it has been worse this year. Off the top of my head, Northwestern, UCLA, Georgia Tech, and Kansas have a weak case for their bowl bids, where teams like Northern Illinois or UConn could be very live dogs facing the right matchup. In my opinion some of these watered down teams from big conferences are not the normal threat to win games SU as dogs have been in the past.
Second - I think of the favorites that have covered thus far are because of huge mismatches. I feel it is now safe to say that TCU and Miami Ohio would have had a nice game if they would have matched up together, or even better would have been a Boise ST vs Miami Ohio matchup. Matching up teams based on having a good game not based on conference obligations would provide for some great lines.
Enough of my rant - hope I made some sense. Based on this "theory", I'm playing Bowling Green -6.5 tomorrow. NW was outscored 208-89 and are 2-5 vs bowl teams this year. I will give them the Wisconsin win, they did play well in that game, but Wisconsin missing Sorgi and Davis only having 5 carries due to injury was a huge factor. Josh Harris is a playmaker, and loses to Ohio St and Miami Ohio are nothing to hang your head about. I consider this is a strong play - putting 3 units on it (4 is max).
Bowl Season 4-5 +2.5 units (all 1 unit plays so far except for a 4 on Hawaii 2 H tonight
).
GL tomorrow.
BM
Here it goes:
First - automatic bids from the "major" conferences are watering down some bowls, providing mismatches, and allowing the favs to rout. While this has been the case in the past, I think it has been worse this year. Off the top of my head, Northwestern, UCLA, Georgia Tech, and Kansas have a weak case for their bowl bids, where teams like Northern Illinois or UConn could be very live dogs facing the right matchup. In my opinion some of these watered down teams from big conferences are not the normal threat to win games SU as dogs have been in the past.
Second - I think of the favorites that have covered thus far are because of huge mismatches. I feel it is now safe to say that TCU and Miami Ohio would have had a nice game if they would have matched up together, or even better would have been a Boise ST vs Miami Ohio matchup. Matching up teams based on having a good game not based on conference obligations would provide for some great lines.
Enough of my rant - hope I made some sense. Based on this "theory", I'm playing Bowling Green -6.5 tomorrow. NW was outscored 208-89 and are 2-5 vs bowl teams this year. I will give them the Wisconsin win, they did play well in that game, but Wisconsin missing Sorgi and Davis only having 5 carries due to injury was a huge factor. Josh Harris is a playmaker, and loses to Ohio St and Miami Ohio are nothing to hang your head about. I consider this is a strong play - putting 3 units on it (4 is max).
Bowl Season 4-5 +2.5 units (all 1 unit plays so far except for a 4 on Hawaii 2 H tonight
).GL tomorrow.
BM
