Why the fk go for 2?
- Thread starter Aces High
- Start date
They been doing this for a while now. They need two tds plus OT to win. So going for two on the first TD give them a chance to win without OT. If you don’t make it you can still tie with a two on the second TD. I know I confused yall, I’m confused myself now 😂
Guys. Cmon. I’ve explained this. Going for 2 down 14 in the 4th quarter literally increases your chance of winning the game by about 13%. I can explain again if i need to, but this is the most obvious math there is. Let’s not get caught up in some abstract “analytics” talk where you live in a universe where odds don’t matter because coaches in 1996 used to just kick the XP
2 POINT DECISION (DOWN 14 LATE)
I’ve had way too many people complain about TB going for 2. Mostly because they lost +6 or +6.5. That aside, here’s the simple math on why you have to go for 2 here, and why it isn’t close.
Going to overtime is not winning. It’s a coin flip. Kicking two extra points maximizes your chance to reach overtime. Going for 2 after the first touchdown maximizes your chance to win the game. Those are not the same thing.
Basic assumptions (conservative):
You kick after TD2. Tie game. Go to overtime.
This strategy gives you exactly one win path. Overtime.
You’re now down 6.
After TD2, you kick the XP and win in regulation.
You’re down 8.
After TD2, you go for 2 again.
If your goal is to win the game, you go for 2.
If your goal is to avoid criticism, you kick.
Late in the game, down 14, the correct decision is simple.
Always go for 2.
I’ve had way too many people complain about TB going for 2. Mostly because they lost +6 or +6.5. That aside, here’s the simple math on why you have to go for 2 here, and why it isn’t close.
Going to overtime is not winning. It’s a coin flip. Kicking two extra points maximizes your chance to reach overtime. Going for 2 after the first touchdown maximizes your chance to win the game. Those are not the same thing.
Basic assumptions (conservative):
- Extra point = 100%
- 2 point conversion = 50%
- Overtime win = 50%
- You score two TDs. The other team doesn’t score again.
Option 1. Kick the extra point after both TDs
You kick after TD1. Down 7.You kick after TD2. Tie game. Go to overtime.
- Reach OT: 100%
- Win in OT: 50%
This strategy gives you exactly one win path. Overtime.
Option 2. Go for 2 after the first TD
Scenario A. Make the first 2 point try (50%)You’re now down 6.
After TD2, you kick the XP and win in regulation.
- Win probability from this branch: 50%
You’re down 8.
After TD2, you go for 2 again.
- Make it (50%) and go to OT, then win OT 50% of the time
- Win probability: 12.5% (0.50 × 0.50 × 0.50)
Total win probability when going for 2
- Win in regulation: 50%
- Win via OT fallback: 12.5%
Bottom line
- Kick first: 50% chance to win. One path. Overtime.
- Go for 2 first: 62.5% chance to win. Two paths. Regulation win plus overtime fallback.
If your goal is to win the game, you go for 2.
If your goal is to avoid criticism, you kick.
Late in the game, down 14, the correct decision is simple.
Always go for 2.
Yeah, if you are a dog on the road and have less of a chance in winning in OT, it skews the odds in your favor even more (assuming the kicking and 2 point odds remain constant, of course).
