Wichita State -11
- Thread starter goldcupsports
- Start date
i was thinking of san francisco here, small play... hoping for 12+!
dons didn't play very well in ohio, i think they give an honest effort wednesday.
good luck
dons didn't play very well in ohio, i think they give an honest effort wednesday.
good luck
Also, totally agree here, goldcup! I was about to post a write-up on this game, but I will just add my thoughts to your thread. Hope you don't mind.
Honestly, I had both of these teams ear-marked as "play-on" teams early in the season, thinking both would be undervalued. Really like what Turgeon has going in WUShock land. Great depth and experience with this squad. Probably his best team yet. If they don't win the MVC this year I will be shocked. Jamar Howard is a great scorer and rebounder, Burns, Kampman are nice three point threats. Point guard isn't as solid this year with Liberty or Brauer but certainly serviceable. Wilson and Miller are beginning to bring some inside presence, too, with Miller scoring in DD in 10 out his last 13.
The Dons are going to be very competitive in the WCC this year. Coach Evans will improve this squad by leaps and bounds. That being said, Evans is no miracle worker and the turnaround at USF will take some time. USF has always had talent, but developing into a cohesive unit has not usually happened. Cox can absolutely fill it up.
Over the years I know of no other team with a larger home/road dichotomy than USF. They really play uninspired when on the road, more often than not down DD by the half and it doesn't usually get any better. The ugly loss at Ohio (first true road test), in front of a paltry 1,879 fans, followed that same trend and I expect this one to be even uglier for many reasons. Bottomline: I'm only looking to fade this team on the road again this year, until the Dons prove that they can compete in true road games.
Some other keys to this game: For a smaller school, the Shockers truly have a great home court advantage. Shocker fans love their hoops and baseball. Brand new arena holds 10,500 and they usually pack the house. Truly an intimidating atmosphere for visiting teams. This is also a key non-conference game for the Shocks if in fact they need to get an at-large bid to the NCAA's this year. That is reason enough to expect a focused effort from Wichita State tonight.
Key stats that lead to point spread success:
USF doesn't get to the line and has no inside presence at all. In the two games away from home they sport a -20 (avg) FT differential and a -5 rebounding differential. On the other hand, Wichita State has been impressive thus far, sporting a +18 (avg) FT differential and a +16 rebounding differential. Sure, you can't take too much from early stats, but I think these are glaring enough to tell you why Wichita State is favored by 11 tonight.
Wichita State is holding opponents to 39% FG's through two games, while the Dons are allowing opponents to shoot 46%.
Shockers have a nice home-court advantage, they have a balanced offense, the most depth, the better defense, they crash the boards, get to the FT line a bunch and hit them at a 76% clip.
USF has a tendency to commit careless turnovers and silly fouls when on the road, which really hurts when you're bench is not that deep. They are strictly a jump shooting team, they don't crash the boards, and they don't get to the FT line.
All of this is certainly enough for me to give the 11. The only way I see this one staying within 11 is if the Dons make 50+% of their three balls tonight and shoot at a comparable % from the field. They will certainly chuck 'em up but I don't see that happening on the road against a formidable defense. Expecting a blowout here.
Good Luck to All,
-JC
Honestly, I had both of these teams ear-marked as "play-on" teams early in the season, thinking both would be undervalued. Really like what Turgeon has going in WUShock land. Great depth and experience with this squad. Probably his best team yet. If they don't win the MVC this year I will be shocked. Jamar Howard is a great scorer and rebounder, Burns, Kampman are nice three point threats. Point guard isn't as solid this year with Liberty or Brauer but certainly serviceable. Wilson and Miller are beginning to bring some inside presence, too, with Miller scoring in DD in 10 out his last 13.
The Dons are going to be very competitive in the WCC this year. Coach Evans will improve this squad by leaps and bounds. That being said, Evans is no miracle worker and the turnaround at USF will take some time. USF has always had talent, but developing into a cohesive unit has not usually happened. Cox can absolutely fill it up.
Over the years I know of no other team with a larger home/road dichotomy than USF. They really play uninspired when on the road, more often than not down DD by the half and it doesn't usually get any better. The ugly loss at Ohio (first true road test), in front of a paltry 1,879 fans, followed that same trend and I expect this one to be even uglier for many reasons. Bottomline: I'm only looking to fade this team on the road again this year, until the Dons prove that they can compete in true road games.
Some other keys to this game: For a smaller school, the Shockers truly have a great home court advantage. Shocker fans love their hoops and baseball. Brand new arena holds 10,500 and they usually pack the house. Truly an intimidating atmosphere for visiting teams. This is also a key non-conference game for the Shocks if in fact they need to get an at-large bid to the NCAA's this year. That is reason enough to expect a focused effort from Wichita State tonight.
Key stats that lead to point spread success:
USF doesn't get to the line and has no inside presence at all. In the two games away from home they sport a -20 (avg) FT differential and a -5 rebounding differential. On the other hand, Wichita State has been impressive thus far, sporting a +18 (avg) FT differential and a +16 rebounding differential. Sure, you can't take too much from early stats, but I think these are glaring enough to tell you why Wichita State is favored by 11 tonight.
Wichita State is holding opponents to 39% FG's through two games, while the Dons are allowing opponents to shoot 46%.
Shockers have a nice home-court advantage, they have a balanced offense, the most depth, the better defense, they crash the boards, get to the FT line a bunch and hit them at a 76% clip.
USF has a tendency to commit careless turnovers and silly fouls when on the road, which really hurts when you're bench is not that deep. They are strictly a jump shooting team, they don't crash the boards, and they don't get to the FT line.
All of this is certainly enough for me to give the 11. The only way I see this one staying within 11 is if the Dons make 50+% of their three balls tonight and shoot at a comparable % from the field. They will certainly chuck 'em up but I don't see that happening on the road against a formidable defense. Expecting a blowout here.
Good Luck to All,
-JC
