2025 NFL reggae: minus 6668.88
2025/26 playoffs: minus absolute zero
I couldn't make that number up if I tried. I presume that would be beauty if a poker hand were 6 cards. Anyways, the bad news is that I dropped 2/3rds of my eggroll bankroll during reggae time. The good news is that I just need to triple my remaining eggroll, during the lucky 13 of the playoffs, to be even. And hungry.
Going to get this out of the way early so that I have free time to work on that self-actualization mumbo jumbo.
weather condition prospects as of Thurs. morning:
-------------------------------------------------------------
@Car Likely Rain Showers/med.wind
@Chc Chance Snow/cool/med.-high winds
@Jax Slight Chance Rain
@Phil Slight Chance Rain/light-med. wind
@NE Slight Chance Rain/cool
@Pit cold
-----
Bears +100 100/100
1H Jaguars -108 108/100
Jaguars -105 315/300
Eagles -4.5 -109 218/200
=741(4)
P2 1H rams -6.5 -110 / 1H Jaguars +0.5 -127 <+241> 50/120.62
P2 1H packers@Bears un23 -117 / 1H Patriots -3 -102 <+267> 50/133.65
P2 Bears +100 / Patriots -198 <+201> 50/100.51
P2 Jaguars +1.5 -119 / Patriots -198 <+177> 60/106.19
P2 Eagles -2.5 -178 / Patriots -198 <+135> 80/108.05
P2 Eagles -2.5 -178 / texans -157 <+155> 70/108.96
P2 Patriots -198 / texans -157 <+146> 70/102.46
=430(7)
T2/6 rams -4.5 / packers@Bears un51.5 -110 110/100
T2/6 rams -4.5 / chargers@Patriots un52 -110 110/100
T3/10 rams -0.5 / Bears +11 / texans@Steelers un49.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 rams -0.5 / packers@Bears un55.5 / texans +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 rams -0.5 / Jaguars +11.5 / chargers@Patriots un56 -130 65/50
T3/10 rams -0.5 / Patriots +6.5 / texans +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 Bears +11 / Jaguars +11.5 / texans@Steelers un49.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 packers@Bears un55.5 / 49ers@Eagles un54.5 / texans@Steelers un49.5 -130 130/100
=675(8)
Rams Tyler Higbee anytime TD +240 50/120
Bears Colston Loveland ov40.5 receiving yards -110 88/80
Bears Colston Loveland anytime TD +220 50/110
Bears D'Andre Swift 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +800 50/400
Jaguars Brenton Strange anytime TD +270 50/135
---
P2 Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +310 /
/ Bears Kyle Monangai anytime TD +150 <+925> 20/185
P2 Rams Blake Corum ov42.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Eagles Tank Bigsby ov9.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov66.5 rushing -118 /
/ Bills Dalton Kincaid ov36.5 receiving yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov66.5 rushing yards -118 /
/ Patriots TreVeyon Henderson ov50.5 rushing yards -110 <+252> 40/101.08
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov80.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 /
/ Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson ov56.5 rushing + receiving yards -110 <+256> 40/102.77
P2 Rams Tyler Higbee ov24.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson ov37.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Bears D'Andre Swift ov77.5 rushing + receiving yards -110 /
/ Jaguars Travis Etienne ov82.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 <+256> 40/102.77
P3 Bears Luther Burden ov41.5 receiving yards -117 /
/ Jaguars Bhayshul Tuten ov21.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov62.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 <+540> 20/108.12
P2 Bears Luther Burden anytime TD +250 /
/ Texans Jayden Higgins anytime TD +400 <+1650> 20/330
P3 Packers Emanuel Wilson ov15.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Eagles DeVonta Smith ov54.5 receiving yards -110 /
/ Patriots Stefon Diggs ov56.5 receiving yards -115 <+567> 20/113.46
P2 Jaguars Brenton Strange ov33.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Eagles Jalen Hurts ov27.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Jaguars Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD +280 /
/ Steelers Kenneth Gainwell anytime TD +200 <+1040> 20/208
P2 Bills Dalton Kincaid anytime TD +240 /
/ Texans Jayden Higgins ov30.5 receiving yards +101 <+583> 30/175.02
P2 Eagles Saquon Barkley ov82.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Patriots TreVeyon Henderson ov64.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 <+249> 50/124.76
=788(19)
--I've heard some talk about Ejiro Evero--current Panthers D.C., and former Rams safeties and secondary coach--might have been a key factor in the week 13 upset of the Rams, and that he might do so again; take the 10.5 then? I'm not buying it and believe that the Rams will have their full attention, and likely take control early. Trying 1st half and a whack of teaser action as I'd be surprised if Panthers stay within a TD by final whistle. Also trying a couple of Rams tight ends to find the red zone, and some happy action on yardage for both of Rams running backs, Williams and Corum. Panthers are ranked 23rd vs the run in giving up 4.4 yards per attempt; apparently even worse against the dual running game (per PFF) that the Rams will use often.
----Rams Kyren Williams ov80.5 rush+rec -115 (done in 5 straight, and 12 of last 15)
----Rams Kyren Williams ov66.5 rushing -118 (done in 5 of past 6, and 8 of past 10)
----Rams Blake Corum ov42.5 rush -115 (done in 5 of past 6)
----Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +310 (scored in 6 of past 9 games)
--Bears defense has been brutal for much of the year, and they also didn't show any life on offense, for 3 quarters, in their last vs a rather banged-up Lions defense, but Packers are coming in off of a horrible stretch and some of the returning wounded (Love, Jacobs) might not be at the top of their game. Key factor might be some snowy conditions, and perhaps the strongest winds in the 6 games this round, which might force more reliance on the ground game, an area where the Bears excel (3rd by y/a at 4.9) and the Packers have struggled (25th at 4.1 y/a). Mind you, that significant 0.8 difference gets reversed by looking at defending the run, where Packers have allowed 4.2 (10th) while the Bears are 29th at 5.0. Would like it way more if Bears had shown more of a pulse against the Lions, at home, but they do get to stay put while the Packers had to travel back from Minnesota, and then tour out to the Windy City. I dig the coach, the QB, the run game, and the recent monster work from rookie TE Loveland.
----Chi D'Andre Swift ov77.5 rush+rec -110 (done 4 of past 6, and 8 of past 12)
----Chi Colston Loveland ov40.5 receiving yards -110 (done in 2 straight, 3 of past 4, and 6 of past 10)
--While I wouldn't mind seeing the Bills finally win a Super Bowl, I have little faith in their wide receivers and not too sure about some reports that say that Josh Allen still has soreness in his right foot, not to mention the apparent re-awakening of Trevor and friends. Jags D also sitting 5th against the run at 3.9 y/a; slow down James Cook and Allen will need to make magic. While the Bills run D has been horrible, I expect that they are going to try to do anything they can to take away Travis Etienne and, if successful, could very well win. Bills pass defense has been better but Lawrence and his bevy of pass-catchers are excelling at the right time.
----Jax Brenton Strange anytime TD +270 (done in 2 of past 3, and 3 of past 6)
----Jax Brenton Strange ov33.5 rec yards -115 (done in 3 straight, 5 of past 7, and 7 of past 10)
----Jax Travis Etienne ov82.5 rush+rec -115 (done in only 7 of 17, including 2 of past 4)
--If healthy then the Eagles should handle the 49ers, despite constant criticisms of their offensive inefficiencies. Best I can find out--now entering Thursday--is that DL Jalen Carter, DL Jaelan Phillips, LB Nakobe Dean, TE Dallas Goedert, and most importantly OT Lane Johnson are all expected to be back. The 49ers injuries are well documented, but they might have OT Trent Williams and WR Pearsall back for this one. By necessity, CMC has been overworked this season and comes in with a sore back. 49ers have little pass rush and Robert Saleh's smoke and mirrors defense will need to be tight for this to be a game going into the 4th quarter.
----Eagles Tank Bigsby ov9.5 rushing yards -118 (smashed this in 3 of past 4)
--I'm hearing a lot of love for Chargers in this spot. They come in with a comparably solid coach, have a well-rested Herbert, and the better defense; they are better vs the pass, mind you, and I'm expecting heavy doses of the Pats dual running threats in Henderson and Stevenson. Injuries to Chargers RBs Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal, not to mention the Patriots inevitable scores, will mean that Herbert will need to air it out often. There's the rub; the Chargers offensive line is in shambles and ranks basement in pass protection. Patriots middle of the road in pass rush win rate at 35% (19th). I currently see Chargers team total at 20.5, heavily juiced to the over, and the Chargers have only obtained that 3 times in their past 7 games (Raiders, 22 home to Eagles in ot, and vs the Cowboys killer(not)defense). Pats have scored 23 or more in 14 straight; strength of schedule or not, this team doesn't appear to be stoppable. Patriots-Rams take 3, anybody?
----Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov50.5 rush -110 (done in 2 straight, and 9 of past 10)
----Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov64.5 rush+rec -115 (done in 8 of past 10)
----Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov37.5 rush -118 (done in 5 straight)
----Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov56.5 rush+rec -110 (done in 5 straight)
--I sure like the Texans defense but their offense goes into major funks constantly, and Woody Marks does not appear to be the answer in the run game (3.6 y/a, season high--way back--of 74 (vs Bills poor run D), and only 2 rushing scores). Texans are better at home and the dual-recency bias of Texans luck vs Colts, and the crazy closer Ravens@Steelers, suggests this could be another weird one. Not surprised this line has dropped, from Hou -3.5 down to -3, as every podcaster and their cousin is advocating for the Steelers here, at least with the points. Teasing that under39.5, more, is sure tempting, but 27 points in the 4th quarter of Steelers' last has me reconsidering nihilism.
----Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov62.5 rush+rec -115 (done in 3 of past 4, and 5 of past 8)
Just my two cents. Apparently collectors items now. Demand lower than 1981 Donruss commons.
Good Luck
2025/26 playoffs: minus absolute zero
I couldn't make that number up if I tried. I presume that would be beauty if a poker hand were 6 cards. Anyways, the bad news is that I dropped 2/3rds of my eggroll bankroll during reggae time. The good news is that I just need to triple my remaining eggroll, during the lucky 13 of the playoffs, to be even. And hungry.
Going to get this out of the way early so that I have free time to work on that self-actualization mumbo jumbo.
weather condition prospects as of Thurs. morning:
-------------------------------------------------------------
@Car Likely Rain Showers/med.wind
@Chc Chance Snow/cool/med.-high winds
@Jax Slight Chance Rain
@Phil Slight Chance Rain/light-med. wind
@NE Slight Chance Rain/cool
@Pit cold
-----
Bears +100 100/100
1H Jaguars -108 108/100
Jaguars -105 315/300
Eagles -4.5 -109 218/200
=741(4)
P2 1H rams -6.5 -110 / 1H Jaguars +0.5 -127 <+241> 50/120.62
P2 1H packers@Bears un23 -117 / 1H Patriots -3 -102 <+267> 50/133.65
P2 Bears +100 / Patriots -198 <+201> 50/100.51
P2 Jaguars +1.5 -119 / Patriots -198 <+177> 60/106.19
P2 Eagles -2.5 -178 / Patriots -198 <+135> 80/108.05
P2 Eagles -2.5 -178 / texans -157 <+155> 70/108.96
P2 Patriots -198 / texans -157 <+146> 70/102.46
=430(7)
T2/6 rams -4.5 / packers@Bears un51.5 -110 110/100
T2/6 rams -4.5 / chargers@Patriots un52 -110 110/100
T3/10 rams -0.5 / Bears +11 / texans@Steelers un49.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 rams -0.5 / packers@Bears un55.5 / texans +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 rams -0.5 / Jaguars +11.5 / chargers@Patriots un56 -130 65/50
T3/10 rams -0.5 / Patriots +6.5 / texans +7 -130 65/50
T3/10 Bears +11 / Jaguars +11.5 / texans@Steelers un49.5 -130 65/50
T3/10 packers@Bears un55.5 / 49ers@Eagles un54.5 / texans@Steelers un49.5 -130 130/100
=675(8)
Rams Tyler Higbee anytime TD +240 50/120
Bears Colston Loveland ov40.5 receiving yards -110 88/80
Bears Colston Loveland anytime TD +220 50/110
Bears D'Andre Swift 1st TD scorer w/Second Chance +800 50/400
Jaguars Brenton Strange anytime TD +270 50/135
---
P2 Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +310 /
/ Bears Kyle Monangai anytime TD +150 <+925> 20/185
P2 Rams Blake Corum ov42.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Eagles Tank Bigsby ov9.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov66.5 rushing -118 /
/ Bills Dalton Kincaid ov36.5 receiving yards -115 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov66.5 rushing yards -118 /
/ Patriots TreVeyon Henderson ov50.5 rushing yards -110 <+252> 40/101.08
P2 Rams Kyren Williams ov80.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 /
/ Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson ov56.5 rushing + receiving yards -110 <+256> 40/102.77
P2 Rams Tyler Higbee ov24.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson ov37.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Bears D'Andre Swift ov77.5 rushing + receiving yards -110 /
/ Jaguars Travis Etienne ov82.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 <+256> 40/102.77
P3 Bears Luther Burden ov41.5 receiving yards -117 /
/ Jaguars Bhayshul Tuten ov21.5 rushing + receiving yards -118 /
/ Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov62.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 <+540> 20/108.12
P2 Bears Luther Burden anytime TD +250 /
/ Texans Jayden Higgins anytime TD +400 <+1650> 20/330
P3 Packers Emanuel Wilson ov15.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Eagles DeVonta Smith ov54.5 receiving yards -110 /
/ Patriots Stefon Diggs ov56.5 receiving yards -115 <+567> 20/113.46
P2 Jaguars Brenton Strange ov33.5 receiving yards -115 /
/ Eagles Jalen Hurts ov27.5 rushing yards -118 <+245> 50/122.70
P2 Jaguars Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD +280 /
/ Steelers Kenneth Gainwell anytime TD +200 <+1040> 20/208
P2 Bills Dalton Kincaid anytime TD +240 /
/ Texans Jayden Higgins ov30.5 receiving yards +101 <+583> 30/175.02
P2 Eagles Saquon Barkley ov82.5 rushing yards -115 /
/ Patriots TreVeyon Henderson ov64.5 rushing + receiving yards -115 <+249> 50/124.76
=788(19)
--I've heard some talk about Ejiro Evero--current Panthers D.C., and former Rams safeties and secondary coach--might have been a key factor in the week 13 upset of the Rams, and that he might do so again; take the 10.5 then? I'm not buying it and believe that the Rams will have their full attention, and likely take control early. Trying 1st half and a whack of teaser action as I'd be surprised if Panthers stay within a TD by final whistle. Also trying a couple of Rams tight ends to find the red zone, and some happy action on yardage for both of Rams running backs, Williams and Corum. Panthers are ranked 23rd vs the run in giving up 4.4 yards per attempt; apparently even worse against the dual running game (per PFF) that the Rams will use often.
----Rams Kyren Williams ov80.5 rush+rec -115 (done in 5 straight, and 12 of last 15)
----Rams Kyren Williams ov66.5 rushing -118 (done in 5 of past 6, and 8 of past 10)
----Rams Blake Corum ov42.5 rush -115 (done in 5 of past 6)
----Rams Colby Parkinson anytime TD +310 (scored in 6 of past 9 games)
--Bears defense has been brutal for much of the year, and they also didn't show any life on offense, for 3 quarters, in their last vs a rather banged-up Lions defense, but Packers are coming in off of a horrible stretch and some of the returning wounded (Love, Jacobs) might not be at the top of their game. Key factor might be some snowy conditions, and perhaps the strongest winds in the 6 games this round, which might force more reliance on the ground game, an area where the Bears excel (3rd by y/a at 4.9) and the Packers have struggled (25th at 4.1 y/a). Mind you, that significant 0.8 difference gets reversed by looking at defending the run, where Packers have allowed 4.2 (10th) while the Bears are 29th at 5.0. Would like it way more if Bears had shown more of a pulse against the Lions, at home, but they do get to stay put while the Packers had to travel back from Minnesota, and then tour out to the Windy City. I dig the coach, the QB, the run game, and the recent monster work from rookie TE Loveland.
----Chi D'Andre Swift ov77.5 rush+rec -110 (done 4 of past 6, and 8 of past 12)
----Chi Colston Loveland ov40.5 receiving yards -110 (done in 2 straight, 3 of past 4, and 6 of past 10)
--While I wouldn't mind seeing the Bills finally win a Super Bowl, I have little faith in their wide receivers and not too sure about some reports that say that Josh Allen still has soreness in his right foot, not to mention the apparent re-awakening of Trevor and friends. Jags D also sitting 5th against the run at 3.9 y/a; slow down James Cook and Allen will need to make magic. While the Bills run D has been horrible, I expect that they are going to try to do anything they can to take away Travis Etienne and, if successful, could very well win. Bills pass defense has been better but Lawrence and his bevy of pass-catchers are excelling at the right time.
----Jax Brenton Strange anytime TD +270 (done in 2 of past 3, and 3 of past 6)
----Jax Brenton Strange ov33.5 rec yards -115 (done in 3 straight, 5 of past 7, and 7 of past 10)
----Jax Travis Etienne ov82.5 rush+rec -115 (done in only 7 of 17, including 2 of past 4)
--If healthy then the Eagles should handle the 49ers, despite constant criticisms of their offensive inefficiencies. Best I can find out--now entering Thursday--is that DL Jalen Carter, DL Jaelan Phillips, LB Nakobe Dean, TE Dallas Goedert, and most importantly OT Lane Johnson are all expected to be back. The 49ers injuries are well documented, but they might have OT Trent Williams and WR Pearsall back for this one. By necessity, CMC has been overworked this season and comes in with a sore back. 49ers have little pass rush and Robert Saleh's smoke and mirrors defense will need to be tight for this to be a game going into the 4th quarter.
----Eagles Tank Bigsby ov9.5 rushing yards -118 (smashed this in 3 of past 4)
--I'm hearing a lot of love for Chargers in this spot. They come in with a comparably solid coach, have a well-rested Herbert, and the better defense; they are better vs the pass, mind you, and I'm expecting heavy doses of the Pats dual running threats in Henderson and Stevenson. Injuries to Chargers RBs Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal, not to mention the Patriots inevitable scores, will mean that Herbert will need to air it out often. There's the rub; the Chargers offensive line is in shambles and ranks basement in pass protection. Patriots middle of the road in pass rush win rate at 35% (19th). I currently see Chargers team total at 20.5, heavily juiced to the over, and the Chargers have only obtained that 3 times in their past 7 games (Raiders, 22 home to Eagles in ot, and vs the Cowboys killer(not)defense). Pats have scored 23 or more in 14 straight; strength of schedule or not, this team doesn't appear to be stoppable. Patriots-Rams take 3, anybody?
----Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov50.5 rush -110 (done in 2 straight, and 9 of past 10)
----Pats TreVeyon Henderson ov64.5 rush+rec -115 (done in 8 of past 10)
----Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov37.5 rush -118 (done in 5 straight)
----Pats Rhamondre Stevenson ov56.5 rush+rec -110 (done in 5 straight)
--I sure like the Texans defense but their offense goes into major funks constantly, and Woody Marks does not appear to be the answer in the run game (3.6 y/a, season high--way back--of 74 (vs Bills poor run D), and only 2 rushing scores). Texans are better at home and the dual-recency bias of Texans luck vs Colts, and the crazy closer Ravens@Steelers, suggests this could be another weird one. Not surprised this line has dropped, from Hou -3.5 down to -3, as every podcaster and their cousin is advocating for the Steelers here, at least with the points. Teasing that under39.5, more, is sure tempting, but 27 points in the 4th quarter of Steelers' last has me reconsidering nihilism.
----Steelers Kenneth Gainwell ov62.5 rush+rec -115 (done in 3 of past 4, and 5 of past 8)
Just my two cents. Apparently collectors items now. Demand lower than 1981 Donruss commons.
Good Luck
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