When I saw the original line of Ravens -6.5, The first thing to cross my mind was that Vegas is looking to entice Colts money. The Colts have been hot and the Ravens, not. The Ravens favored by 6.5 seemed high to me.
Looking at the Colt's away games in which they were 4-4 this year, Their 4 wins were against BAD teams: Tennessee (6-10), Jacksonville (2-14), Kansas City (2-14) and Detroit (4-12). That's a combined record of 14-50 in which 3 of their 4 wins was within one score. The 4 Colt's road losses were against the Bears (10-6) loss by 20 pts, Jets (6-10) loss by 26 pts, Houston (12-4) loss by 12 and the Patriots (12-4) loss by 35. Analysis: Colts play a winning team on the road, they lose by double digits.
If I can make one single drop dead guarantee for Sunday's game, it would be this. The Colt's and Andrew Luck have NEVER played in a stadium as loud and crazy as M&T Stadium in Baltimore will be Sunday. Besides the normal insane playoff atmosphere, now you have Ray Lewis playing his last game in Baltimore. The energy in that stadium will be beyond comprehension. It would take a veteran team with a seasoned QB to be able to go into Baltimore this weekend and keep their composure. I do not see even the uniquely talented Andrew Luck being able to handle that crowd. I cannot see the Colt's first road victory OF THE YEAR against a winning team coming in a playoff game at an insane stadium against a team as dominate at home as the Ravens.
The Ravens are the healthiest they have been on defense in many,many weeks. Even playing with "half of a defense" they held their own. The held Denver to 10 points in the 1st half (Flacco gave them the other 7). They held the Bengals 1st team to 7 pts in the 1st half last week. They held the Giants to 14 in a smothering defensive effort. For all the injuries and adversities the Ravens have had on defense this year, these guys played their hearts out and were among the best in the NFL in the red zone.
The Raven's offense has a favorable match up against the Colts. Baltimore is always the most successful when the run game gets going. In their final 2 road games of the year, the Colts gave up over 350 yards to Kansas City on the ground and 178 to Houston. The Colts are weak up the middle and the Ravens will exploit that and and beat it like a drum.
The Colts have a bright, promising future with one of the best young QBs the NFL has seen in a long time. They will gain valuable experience Sunday. Make no mistakes, They will not win, not this Sunday. The Ravens will bring their A+++ effort into a home playoff game against a rookie QB and against a defense that cannot stop the run. Ravens will look like world beaters this week.
PREDICTION: Ravens 30 Colts 13
PLAY: RAVENS -6.5 ***HUGE,LARGE,BIG*** WIN
Saturday's Plays will be posted below by noon on game-day.
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