Wild Card Weekend Various Analysis

Senor Capper · Jan 4, 2005

The Edge NFC Playoff Analysis
Minn @ GB

Vikings
Seed: 6 NFC
Record: 8-8

How they got here: It seems Minnesota annually starts out strong and then self-destructs -- and this season has been no different. The Vikings won only three of their last 10 games but managed to earn a playoff spot when Carolina lost to New Orleans in the season finale. Minnesota lost to Green Bay twice this season, 34-31 both times.

Packers
Seed: 3 NFC
Record: 10-6

How they got here: Big things had been expected from Green Bay this season, but the Packers got off to a 1-4 start. Coach Mike Sherman took over the play calling following an Oct. 11 loss to Tennessee, and it made a difference. The Packers reeled off six consecutive wins en route to another division title. Green Bay clinched the No. 3 seed in Week 16 and used the final week of the season to rest some of its banged-up starters, including Ahman Green and Brett Favre.

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Offense

In most seasons, Daunte Culpepper would win league MVP honors. He threw 39 TD passes, with only 11 interceptions, for 110.9 QB rating. He has matured into a terrific player. The Vikings have several talented running backs. Whether it's Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore, Onterrio Smith or Moe Williams, the Packers certainly will have their hands full. WR Randy Moss missed some action because of an injury, but he appears to be close to 100 percent. WR Nate Burleson stepped up this season and has given Culpepper another weapon. TE Jermaine Wiggins is also a popular target. In Green Bay, Brett Favre remains one of the game's elite QBs. He's a terrific cold-weather player, and is playing as well as ever. The offensive line does a good job of projecting Favre (sacked only 12 times) and opening up holes for the running backs. Ahman Green (cracked rib) is banged up, but Najeh Davenport provides solid support off the bench. WRs Javon Walker and Donald Driver form a solid one-two punch for Favre, who no longer uses his tight ends as in the past.

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Defense

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL, so this has all the makings of another high-scoring game. The Vikings (28th ranked) haven't been able to shut down many teams. Minnesota's defensive backfield had only 11 picks this season after 28 in 2003. The Vikes were able to apply pressure to the quarterback, led by Kevin Williams (12 sacks) and Lance Johnstone (11 sacks). The Packers were equally woeful on defense, particularly against teams that focus on throwing the ball deep. It appears Green Bay never adjusted fully to new defensive coordinator Bob Slowik's style. S Darren Sharper is a good player, but he doesn't have enough talent around him. CBs Al Harris and Ahmad Carroll have struggled and were beaten deep often. DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila needed four sacks against the Bears to finish with 13.5 for the season. LB Nick Barnett led the team with 123 tackles and continues to evolve into a terrific player.

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Special Teams

Age has affected Vikings K Morten Andersen's distance, but he remains highly effective from close range. Despite his increased role on offense, Burleson continues to retrieve punts and does a terrific job. He ran back one for 91 yards this season. Kelly Campbell handles kickoff returns and does an adequate job. Packer K Ryan Longwell's ability to come through in the clutch has meant the world to Green Bay. Antonio Chatman returns punts and kicks, and has good hands, which coach Mike Sherman likes

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Ultimate Edge

With all that Favre has been through this past year, he hasn't shown any letdown on the field. He has always had Minnesota's number and he's playing in the comfortable surroundings of Lambeau field. Plus, if it comes down to a field goal, Ryan Longwell has proven himself to be more than capable of coming through. However, the Packers are no longer invincible in Green Bay as Michael Vick and the Falcons proved two seasons ago. Culpepper and the Vikings offense has had a terrific season, but Minnesota's defense has been awful.

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Stl @ Sea

Rams
Seed: 5 NFC
Record: 8-8

How they got here: St. Louis reached the postseason despite struggling all year and finishing with an 8-8 record. The Rams defeated the Jets in overtime on the season's final weekend to keep alive their playoff hopes, then got in when Carolina lost to New Orleans.

Seahawks
Seed: 4 NFC
Record: 9-7

How they got here: Seattle beat Atlanta in the season finale to secure the NFC West title and the No. 4 seed. The Seahawks will be seeking revenge after losing to St. Louis twice during the season.

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Offense

The Rams no longer are "The Greatest Show On Turf" from a few years ago. Still, they have some dangerous weapons and ranked sixth overall in the NFL in total offense. Rams QB Marc Bulger leads the attack, but he had his problems this season. Bulger threw 14 interceptions -- only seven less then the 21 TD passes he tossed. The Rams offensive line allowed 41 sacks, which might have contributed to Bulger's happy feet. RB Marshall Faulk remains the primary option in the St. Louis backfield, but rookie Steven Jackson has exploded on to the scene in recent weeks. Rams WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce continue to put up impressive numbers. The Seahawks' were expecting a huge season from QB Matt Hasselbeck, who didn't meet those expectations. Hasselbeck, who is playoff-tested, plays with a lot of confidence and will likely step up his game against the Rams. Seattle heavily relied on Shaun Alexander, who carried the ball 353 times this season. WR Darrell Jackson is Hasselbeck's primary target, but the quarterback spreads around the ball in the true spirit of the West Coach offense.
Rams

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Defense

Both the Rams (17th ranked) and Seahawks (26th) struggled defensively. The Seahawks are led by Marcus Trufant (96 tackles, five interceptions). Ken Lucas and Michael Boulware combined for 11 interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns. Seattle had 23 interceptions overall, with three returned for scores. Chike Okeafor led the team with 8.5 sacks. The Rams had only six interceptions, led by Jerametrius Butler's five. LB Pisa Tinoisamoa led the Rams with 95 tackles, and DE Bryce Fisher had a team-high 8.5 sacks. Seattle's ability to create turnovers, coupled with St. Louis' inability to force them, might play an important role in the game.

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Specail Teams

Seattle K Josh Brown was solid, but the Seahawks were forced to go with a several different punters. Donnie Jones, perhaps the least effective of those punters, will handle the duties against the Rams. Seattle was effective on punt and kick coverage. St. Louis K Jeff Wilkins' 2004 stat-line didn't come close to his incredible 2003 season, but he remains one of the NFL's top kickers. He hit four of five from 50-plus yards. The Rams allowed one punt return for a touchdown, but only averaged 4.8 yards on their returns.

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Ultimate Edge

St. Louis defeated the Seahawks twice during the regular season, but Seattle has home-field advantage. Neither team has shown consistency this season. Matt Hasselbeck is the key in this game. All signs point to him stepping up with a big performance.

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Senor Capper · Jan 4, 2005

The Edge AFC Playoff Analysis
DENVER

Seed: 6 AFC
Record: 10-6

How they got here: The Broncos and Colts will meet for the second consecutive week. Denver needed a 33-14 win over Indianapolis in Week 17 to secure the No. 6 seed. However, the Broncos won without having to face the league's likely MVP, Colts QB Peyton Manning.

INDY

Seed: 3 AFC
Record: 12-4

How they got here: The Colts secured the No. 3 seed before Week 17, which allowed the team to rest its key players, including Manning and Edgerrin James. The Colts won the AFC South while leading the league with an incredible 522 points scored.

Offense

Broncos QB Jake Plummer has had to endure intense pressure from the fans and local media, which wasn't thrilled with his high interception rate (20 INTs) in 2004. Coach Mike Shanahan stood by his quarterback and will continue to do so. Shanahan also had to defend his offensive line, accused of applying cut blocks as a means of opening up holes for the running backs. Reuben Droughns (1,240 yards; 4.5 avg.) stepped up his game after Denver lost Quentin Griffin to a season-ending injury. WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie each had more than 1,000 yards in receiving. Manning, expected be named league MVP, broke Dan Marino's single-season record for TD passes with 49, and only had 10 INTs. Edgerrin James appears to be back at full strength (334 carries, 1,548 yards) and is a threat either rushing or receiving the ball. The Colts had three WRs -- Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley -- with at least 10 TD receptions and more than 1,000 yards receiving.

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Defense

The Broncos have one of the few defenses that could slow down the Colts attack. Rookie D.J. Williams led the team with 114 tackles, Reggie Hayward had 10.5 sacks and newcomer Champ Bailey snatched three interceptions. The Broncos gave up the ball more than they forced turnovers, and that proved to be an important factor in several close games. If they can force more turnovers against Indianapolis, the Colts have the type of defense that can shut down teams. The Colts defense gave up a lot of yards, but it could afford to do so given how spectacular Indianapolis? offense is. Plus, teams were forced into throwing the ball on the Colts, who scored easily and often. The defensive secondary recorded 19 picks, including two that were returned for touchdowns. CB Jason David led the team with four interceptions, including one returned for a TD. DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney combined for 26.5 sacks.

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Special Teams

Denver punt and kick returner Rod Smith failed to break a big one in 2004. K Jason Elam has been solid for several years, and this season was no different. Micah Knorr knocked 12 punts inside the opponents' 20, and had a reasonable net average of 34.2. Indianapolis' Mike Vanderjagt wasn't as essential as he was in 2003, but thanks largely to Manning's ability to throw TD passes, field goals haven't been as necessary. The Colts' Hunter Smith had a terrific season punting the ball. Dominic Rhodes had a great season returning kickoffs (24.4 avg., 1 TD).

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The Ultimate Edge

It has been said "defense wins titles" -- but that might not be the case in this game. The Colts have one of the most explosive offenses in the past five years. Manning has several weapons, which will present too big a problem for the Broncos' capable defense. With home-field advantage and a defense that creates more turnovers than it gives up, the Colts should be a ****.

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Nyj @ SD

N.Y. Jets
Seed: 5 AFC
Record: 10-6

How they got here: The Jets locked up the No. 5 seed based on a better record against common opponents with Denver; N.Y. was 5-0, Denver 3-2. The Jets clinched a playoff berth when the Steelers defeated the hard-charging Bills in the season finale. New York opened the season 6-1 but finished losing three of four games.

Chargers
Seed: 4 AFC
Record: 12-4

How they got here: The Chargers are one of the league's biggest surprises this season. Few people expected them to finish with a winning record, let alone as AFC West champions. Despite owning an identical record as the Colts, Indianapolis is the No. 3 seed based on a victory over the Chargers in Week 16. With the No. 4 seed secure, San Diego used the final week to rest key players, including quarterback Drew Brees.

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Offense

The Jets are powered by 31-year-old RB Curtis Martin, the league's leading rusher with a personal high of 1,697 yards. Martin shows no signs of slowing down and is healthy entering the playoffs. QB Chad Pennington missed three games this season and had a hot-and-cold relationship with the New York media. He has been inconsistent, which makes people wonder which Pennington will show up against the Chargers. He does have a lot of weapons and will work the ball around to several players, highlighted by WR Santana Moss. The strength of the Chargers' attack rests with three players -- QB Drew Brees, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates. Brees, who'll be a free agent after the season, should earn a large paycheck based on his outstanding play in 2004. Gates, a former college basketball player at Kent State, also had a breakout season. The second-year player had 13 TD catches and is Brees' favorite target. Tomlinson is a workhorse who carried the ball 339 times, averaging 3.9 yards a carry. He did score 17 rushing TDs and is terrific in short-yardage situations.

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Defense

The Jets have one of the league's top defenses, led by rookie LB Jonathan Vilma. He had a terrific season and has quickly established himself as a force. Vilma had 107 tackles, two sacks and three interceptions, returning one for a touchdown. LB Eric Barton put up similar numbers, and recovered an impressive four fumbles this season. John Abraham and Shaun Ellis, who combined for more than 20 sacks, will look to pressure Brees. Abraham (strained right knee ligament) is questionable. Chargers LB Donnie Edwards led the team in tackles and interceptions, and will be counted on heavily to slow down the Jets' offensive attack. LB Steve Foley, who led the team with 10 sacks, has been battling a stomach virus but probable for Saturday night's game

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Special teams

Jets kicker Doug Brien missed some makeable field goals this season, but he did connect on a 53-yarder. Jets punter Toby Gowin only supplied a 33.5 net average, which isn't too impressive. New York was solid on punt coverage but did allow a touchdown on a kickoff return by the Chargers' Tim Dwight in Week 2. However, the Chargers allowed two kickoff returns for TDs -- something that doesn't bode well for them. San Diego kicker Nate Kaeding hit three field goals from over 50 yards but also missed some chip-shots from under 30 yards. Chargers punter Mike Scifres was very impressive this season, averaging a 38.4 net. He put 29 punts inside the 20.

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The Ultimate Edge

San Diego has the home-field advantage and momentum on its side. One can't ignore the Chargers won 11 of 13 games to complete the regular season. However, they did lose to the Jets at home in Week 2. The Jets, meanwhile, have been inconsistent down the stretch, and don't resemble the team that started with a 6-1 record. New York has a strong defense, but it has struggled offensively.

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Senor Capper · Jan 4, 2005

Eric Allen's Prognosis (nyj @ sd)
It's easy to look at this game and make some parallels between both teams. Both look to establish the run and have excellent offensive lines. The one aspect the Jets must be worried about is their personnel. They have excellent players at every position, but it seems that the Chargers are just a little bit better at every position except for in the secondary. For instance, QB Chad Pennington has had a great season, but Chargers QB Drew Brees has been phenomenal. Also, while RB Curtis Martin is the leading rusher of the NFL, I'd still take Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson and we won't even talk about the tight end position.

Eric Allen's Prognosis: The Jets won't be able to handle the Chargers' balanced offensive attack that features Tomlinson, Brees and TE Antonio Gates

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Eric Allen on (Denver @ Indy)

On paper, this looks like a great shootout, but in reality Denver has struggled lately. The Broncos haven't really built consistency on either side of the ball and that's going to cost them in this game. The Broncos will struggle to stop the Colts because their best cover man (Champ Bailey) isn't playing well. That doesn't bode well for the Broncos. The Colts have the most explosive offense in the league and opposing teams have to be able to keep up with them offensively.

Eric Allen's prognosis: The Colts are simply too explosive for the Broncos to be able to stop them. The Colts will win this game going away.

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Eric Allen on (Minn @ GB)

Mike Tice's effort this season was rewarded with a contract extension and I hope he enjoys it because I don't see the Vikings changing their colors. This team consistently plays poorly late in the season. This week their mission is to go into Green Bay and defeat the Packers and I don't see it happening. They are too reliant on their passing game and have multiple problems defensively. It's going to be exceptionally difficult for the Vikings to stop the Packers' running game.

Allen's prognosis: The Vikings defense hasn't come up with a big play all season and I don't see that changing as they lose in Green Bay.

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Eric Allen on (STL @ Seattle)

This is the third time this season these two teams are going to hook up with the Rams having swept the Seahawks during the regular season. There are two ways to look at this game. One is that these are two professional football teams and it should be difficult to beat an NFL team three times in a season. That should give the Seattle faithful some hope. From a football standpoint, the Rams have more momentum because they beat two playoff teams in consecutive weeks to make the playoffs. They also seem to have found their speed offensively and are getting valuable assistance from backup running back Steven Jackson. Also, QB Marc Bulger seems to be playing with extra incentive as he rounds into playoff shape.

Eric Allen's prognosis: The Rams are playing well and will completely sweep the 'Hawks this season.

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baby johnson · Jan 4, 2005

thanks senior, greta writewups

jr capper

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

NFL?s Final 12

COLLISION COURSE? Green Bay?s Ahman Green is corraled by the Eagles? Brian Dawkins in last year?s NFL playoff contest. The teams could meet again in this season?s playoffs, which begin Sat.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------01/04/2005 - by Jim Feist

It?s here! The NFL playoffs begin this weekend ? and it?s about time.

Beginning Saturday, the last 12 standing teams will fight it out for the right to compete in the Super Bowl on Feb. 6.

It?s time to forget about teams sitting key players to rest up for the post-season or bad teams packing it in. Now we?re going to witness teams going all-out for the full 60 minutes ? and more, as some games will likely find overtime. Here?s a close-up look at this weekend?s opening round action.

Jets at Chargers -6: All right, Chad, this is another big game you have a chance to save face. The Jets have struggled badly against strong teams, losing to the Ravens, Steelers, Patriots (twice), averaging 9 points in those defeats (0-3-1 ATS). The Jets come into the playoffs 0-2 SU/ATS, losing to the Patriots and Rams as a favorite each time.

On the plus side, the Jets played the Chargers in Week 2 in San Diego and won 34-28. In that game, the Jets had 380 total yards while San Diego mustered 327. However, the Chargers got red-hot after that defeat, winning the AFC West going 12-0-2 ATS.

Both these teams are in the top 10 in rush defense in the NFL, so quarterback play may be the difference. San Diego has great balance offensively with quarterback Drew Brees (27 TDs, 7 INTs), tight end Antonio Gates, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and midseason pickup receiver Keenan McCardell. San Diego is 7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS at home and 5-0 ATS as a favorite.

Broncos +10 at Colts: D?j? vu all over again! A year ago, the Broncos ripped the Colts late in the season, 31-17, to secure a playoff spot. Their reward was a trip to Indy, where the Colts returned the favor in a 41-10 playoff rout. That defeat helped Coach Mike Shanahan realize he needed a shut-down corner, so Clinton Portis was dealt for Champ Bailey. Denver gets another shot after securing a playoff spot after beating the Colts on Sunday.

They will need Bailey to be at his best. Indianapolis has the No. 1 offense in the NFL, behind record setting Peyton Manning (49 TDs, 10 INTs). The Colts won seven of eight games at home, where the offense averages 36 points. Combined with a shaky defense, the Colts went 6-2 "over" the total at home.

Vikings +6 at Packers: Minnesota comes into the playoffs on a roll, albeit a bad one. The Vikings are 3-7 SU/ATS the last 10 games. Offense isn?t a problem, as they rank third in the NFL. Defense is another story, as this bunch will not remind anyone of the Purple People Eaters. The Vikings have allowed 27 points or more in eight of the last 13 games. Needing a win to clinch a playoff spot, the Vikings lost 21-18 at Washington in the finale, but still backed into the postseason. Minnesota went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road, giving up 29 points and is 0-3 SU as a dog.

Conversely, Green Bay is on a roll, going 9-3 SU and 7-4-1 the last 12 games. The Packers have veteran quarterback Brett Favre running the show and running back Ahman Green providing balance to the offense. Green Bay was just 2-6 ATS at Lambeau Field. These teams met twice this season, with Green Bay winning both, 34-31. Each meeting sailed "over" the total.

Rams +4 at Seahawks: On a wing and a prayer! Not to mention a wild overtime victory over the Jets in the finale, which helped the Rams squeeze into the playoffs. The Rams are one of several lousy NFC teams still playing, with the second-worst run defense in the league. St. Louis (8-8) is a poor 6-10 ATS. As an underdog, the Rams went 2-4 ATS while allowing 29 points per game.

Seattle also has problems, carrying a 6-7 SU and 2-11 ATS record into this game. They?ve had defensive problems and injuries much of the season, and are 11-2 "over" the total the last 13 games. Seattle is 4-9 ATS as a favorite and 1-7 ATS at home! On the other hand, the Rams are poor on the road (2-6 SU and ATS).

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Stl @ Seattle

Why To Watch

A win over Atlanta in the regular-season finale gave Seattle its first NFC West title in franchise history, and it also may have saved head coach Mike Holmgren's job. Holmgren has now led the Seahawks into the postseason three times in six years, but his team has yet to win a playoff game and St. Louis has beaten the Seahawks the last three times these teams have met.

Seattle's formula for success will be a strong commitment to the run, taking advantage of red-zone opportunities, and protecting the football. Conversely, St. Louis should use its passing game to set up the ground attack, as Mike Martz's team lives and dies by the big play and isn't afraid to take risks in search for one. Will the more conservative Seahawks move on to the second round of the playoffs for the first time under Holmgren or will Martz's no-risk, no-reward Rams end their NFC West rival's season on yet another disappointing note?

When the Rams have the ball

Rushing:

Jackson

Starting RB Marshall Faulk has been hindered by a nagging knee injury, so backup Steven Jackson should continue to get the majority of the carries. Jackson possesses a good combination of size and speed. His ability to bring his own block and the second gear he shows in the open field makes him an excellent fit for a one-back, spread scheme.

St. Louis will frequently run out of its multiple-receiver sets when he is in the game consequently. Spreading the field will stretch Seattle's run defense horizontally, forcing its linebackers to line up wider and cover more ground. It effectively weakens the interior run defense and creates lanes for Jackson between the tackles. As a result, the Rams should be able to keep the Seahawks honest with their running game.

However, there are two reasons to believe St. Louis won't have a big day running the ball despite the fact Seattle's run defense is giving up an average of 4.5 yards per carry. LOG Tom Nutten is likely out with a knee injury and rookie Larry Turner is expected to replace him. Turner's lack of ideal experience is a concern and it could lead to some breakdowns in the blocking scheme that limit Jackson's production between the tackles. Also, Faulk clearly isn't as explosive as he was earlier in the season. He should be able to keep Jackson fresh and make a valuable contribution in the passing game, but don't look for him to break many long runs.

Passing: QB Marc Bulger finished the regular season with two strong performances and head coach Mike Martz has made it clear that he has a tremendous amount of confidence in his signal-caller. Look for the Rams, who opened up the game with 13 passes the last time these teams played, to come out throwing the ball as a result.

Bulger

St. Louis should have most of its success attacking the middle of the field, as the Seahawks have banged-up linebackers and lack ideal experience at safety. In addition, nickel back Bobby Taylor, who has missed the last six games with a knee injury, could return to the lineup and the Rams will want to test him should he play. Spreading the field will create favorable single-coverage matchups and St. Louis can take advantage by running some crossing routes as well quick-slants with its slot receivers.

No. 3 and No. 4 WRs Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald both have the burst to get open quickly and their ability to catch the ball in-stride makes them very dangerous after the catch. Once Curtis and McDonald start to draw the safeties' attention toward the middle, Bulger will have an easier time finding WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce downfield.

Of course it won't matter how open the Rams' receivers are if Bulger doesn't get enough time to go though his reads and set his feet. It's also important to note that Bulger will try to make too much happen at times and doesn't always make good decisions under pressure, so quality pass protection will be critical. The problem is that will be easier said than done. Seattle defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes can be very aggressive and should regularly blitz Bulger in an effort to prevent the streaky quarterback from getting into a rhythm.

When the Seahawks have the ball

Rushing: The Seahawks run a version of the West Coast offense and they too commonly spread the field, but expect a run-heavy attack. RB Shaun Alexander has dominated a St. Louis run defense that been among the worst in the league, as he has averaged over seven yards per carry the last two times he's played against the Rams.

Alexander

Expect Seattle to give Alexander somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 carries in an effort to control the clock and limit Bulger's opportunities to put points on the board. Staying committed to the running game will set up the play-action package and should create shorter third-down conversion attempts that help keep the Rams off balance. It will also help keep St. Louis' front four on its heels and the Seahawks should focus on pounding the ball right at LDE Leonard Little with that in mind.

Little is an explosive pass rusher who will give ROT Floyd Womack plenty of problems when Seattle drops back to pass, but he is undersized and vulnerable to wearing down over the course of the game. Womack has the bulk to tire Little out if the Seahawks consistently run behind him and that should buy QB Matt Hasselbeck a little more time to find the open receiver when he drops back to pass in the second half.

However, Seattle must make sure to seal the back side whether it does it with a back, tight end or Womack when it runs behind the left side of the offensive linemen. Little possesses rare closing speed for a defensive end and he excels in pursuit. It's also important to note that Alexander fumbled inside the red zone the last time these two teams played and he can't afford to make the same mistake.

Passing: Although the Seahawks have had success moving the ball between the 20s against the Rams, they have struggled to punch into the end zone. In fact, their five trips inside St. Louis' red zone the last time these teams played produced just three field goals. With the Rams moving SS Adam Archuleta, who excels in run support, into the box when Seattle gets inside the 20-yard line, Alexander is having a harder time finding seams. As a result, the Seahawks will have to keep St. Louis' red zone defense honest with some passes when it gets near the goal line.

Stevens

Seattle doesn't have great height at receiver, but 6-7 TE Jerramy Stevens is versatile enough to line up on the perimeter and he has caught a touchdown pass in two of the last three games. He is capable of winning any jump balls in the end zone, making him extremely effective running fade routes, and Hasselbeck needs to continue to take advantage of that strength.

Seattle will also help Hasselbeck by rolling him out of the pocket and giving him the option of either throwing or running at times. This will put pressure on a Rams linebacker corps that can be overaggressive. If it fills in run support before he crosses the line of scrimmage, Hasselbeck should be able to find an open receiver underneath. He is quick enough to pick up a few yards when the linebackers stay in coverage too long.

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Scouts' Edge

It's very difficult for any organization to beat one team three times in the same year. Furthermore, defenses that have problems stopping the run generally don't last long in the playoffs, and this game will be played in Seattle. None of that bodes well for St. Louis.

However, the Seahawks blew a 17-point lead when these teams met in Seattle earlier this year and they have not experienced success in the playoffs under Holmgren. In addition, Bulger appears to be hitting stride at exactly the right time.

Both teams have been extremely inconsistent. How well each handles the pressure of postseason play remains to be seen, making the outcome that much harder to predict.

Seattle suspended WR Koren Robinson for the Miami game in Week 11 for violating team rules and the league suspended him for the following four games for violating its substance-abuse policy. Robinson returned to the lineup two weeks ago but he failed to catch a pass in that game and the Seahawks didn't activate him for the regular-season finale because of disciplinary reasons.

Now head coach Mike Holmgren will consult with his players' committee before making a decision concerning Robinson's status for this game. While Seattle will still have excellent depth at receiver should it bench Robinson, he would be sorely missed. Robinson, who is averaging 16 yards per catch, is the Seahawks' best big-play threat on the perimeter. They simply won't be as effective opening up their underneath routes by stretching St. Louis' defense vertically without him in the lineup.

That's important because WRs Darrell Jackson, Jerry Rice and Bobby Engram are all at their best running short-to-intermediate routes. In the event Robinson plays, expect Seattle to look for him downfield early in the hopes of forcing the Rams' safeties to play a little deeper. This would effectively create space for Jackson, Rice and Engram.

It's critical that Seattle's defensive linemen get their hands up when they aren't going to get to QB Marc Bulger because it will increase their chances of generating a turnover in three ways. The first is Bulger tends to lose the strike zone when he doesn't set his feet, and obstructing passing windows forces him to move around the pocket more often.

Secondly, Bulger will have to hold onto the ball a little longer while trying to find a quality passing window. That will give the pass rush more time to get to him and he has fumbled five times this year. Finally, the Seahawks' defensive linemen getting their hands up could result in some passes getting tipped at the line of scrimmage. This could create some jump-ball situations that give the linebacker corps and secondary a better opportunity to make a play.

Wistrom

Seattle RDE Grant Wistrom had hoped he would be able to return from a knee injury that has forced him to miss the last three games, but he is listed as doubtful and it's highly unlikely he plays. With Wistrom and DT Marcus Tubbs, who has missed the last four games with an ankle injury, on the sidelines the front four will have some problems holding its own against the run. In addition, the lack of depth caused by their absences could cause the Seahawks' defensive line to wear down over the course of the game.

RB Shaun Alexander ruffled some feathers around the league when he made it known that he was unhappy with finishing a yard behind Jets RB Curtis Martin in the race for this year's rushing title. He was particularly upset with a quarterback sneak call that put Seattle ahead late in the fourth quarter.

The Seahawks need to avoid any distractions if they expect to beat St. Louis for the first time this year, especially from the player who should carry the bulk of the offensive workload. To the credit of Holmgren and Alexander's teammates, Seattle did well to diffuse the situation by downplaying it rather than allowing it to turn into a problem.

The transition from former Rams defensive coordinator Lovie Smith's schemes to new defensive coordinator Larry Marmie's schemes has been painful at times. However, players have gradually become more comfortable with their roles and responsibilities, so it's should be no surprise that St. Louis' defense has played far better in recent weeks.

With the Rams' defense playing with more confidence and making fewer mistakes, the Seahawks won't get as many opportunities to make the big play. They'll need to be consistent consequently and that could be a problem. Seattle's receivers have dropped some passes they should have caught and Matt Hasselbeck hasn't always found the open man this year.

Jackson

It's important the Seahawks get off to a strong start. St. Louis beat Philadelphia and the Jets to get into the playoffs. Two recent wins over playoff teams combined with Bulger playing at a high level and the development of rookie RB Steven Jackson gives the Rams a great deal of momentum coming in.

However, it's important to note that St. Louis finished the regular season with a 2-6 road record and the Eagles rested several of their starters. If Seattle can build an early lead and prevent Bulger from getting into a rhythm, the Rams could quickly lose their swagger.

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Look for the Seahawks to get physical with St. Louis' receivers. The Rams' passing game is predicated on timing and there are times that Bulger throws to spots on the field rather than the receiver. Seattle can disrupt that timing by pressing the receivers at the line and that could cause Bulger to make what appear-to-be errant throws.

The Seahawks' pass defense is ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of average yards allowed per game but only two teams have more interceptions. In addition, Seattle has returned three interceptions for touchdowns and Bulger has thrown 14 picks in 14 games. As a result, St. Louis' offense must stay alert and be ready to play defense. The offensive linemen, backs, tight ends and receivers must fight through blocks and make sure to wrap the ball carrier up upon contact if and when Bulger throws an interception.

The Rams didn't practice on Monday or Tuesday and head coach Mike Martz is expected to modify the schedule for Friday. Martz obviously wants his players to be as fresh as well as healthy as possible and he can afford to give them some practice time off because of their familiarity with Seattle. The Seahawks will also adjust their schedule, but they practiced some on Tuesday and Holmgren made a point of mentioning the importance of a good week of practice during his press conference on Tuesday.

Morris

FB Mack Strong is one of the best lead blockers in the league, but he isn't very dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield, so Seattle will line backup RB Maurice Morris up at fullback in certain passing situations. Morris generally releases on a route into the flat and has the second gear to turn the short gain into the big play.

Meanwhile, Alexander will usually wait to see if any defenders come free before releasing into the flat in the opposite direction and he too is very dangerous after the catch. It's imperative that St. Louis' outside linebackers tackle well in the open field consequently.

The first part of this matchup discusses the Seahawks playing TE Jerramy Stevens at receiver to mask their lack of size on the perimeter when they get close to the goal line. One of the other ways Seattle will try to open up its passing game in the red zone is running some three-receiver bunch formations. At the snap of the ball all three receivers head in different directions and the motion of the play could confuse the Rams. This formation and routes could also cause defenders to run into one another.

The Seahawks did a terrible job of tackling last week and they'll have to do a far better job of limiting St. Louis' production after contact. However, that will be easier said than done. Jackson runs with great power and the Rams' receivers excel at making defenders miss in the open field.

Special Teams

Last week Atlanta blocked one of Ken Walter's punts and Seattle's punt cover unit has to make sure it doesn't release downfield too early. The Seahawks can't afford to give St. Louis quality starting field position or worse points by making a critical mistake on special teams.

St. Louis' special teams also finished the regular season on somewhat of a down note, as Jets KOR Jerricho Cotchery returned a kickoff 94 yards for a score. He also averaged 39.6 yards over five kickoff returns in that game. Morris has been somewhat of a disappointment as a return man this year, but he has the big-play ability to take advantage of any breakdowns in the Rams' kickoff coverage.

Matchups

Seattle RB Shaun Alexander vs. St. Louis MLB Robert Thomas

Seattle ROT Floyd Womack vs. St. Louis LDE Leonard Little

St. Louis WR Torry Holt vs. Seattle CB Ken Lucas

St. Louis ROT Blaine Saipaia vs. Seattle LDE Chike Okeafor

Seattle WR Darrell Jackson vs. St. Louis CB Jerametrius Butler

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 24

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Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Nyj @ SD ++++++++

Why To Watch

Saturday night's AFC wild-card matchup between the Jets and Chargers in San Diego is actually a rematch of a Week 2 meeting in which the Jets won 34-28. Much has changed since then, however, as the Jets went 5-6 down the stretch compared to a Chargers team that won nine of its last 10 games.

QB Drew Brees, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates lead a balanced offensive attack and the Chargers' front seven has developed into one of the fiercest units of its kind in the NFL. If the Jets, who "back-doored" their way into the playoffs with consecutive losses to finish the season, are to pull off the sizeable upset, they'll need a career performance from QB Chad Pennington and his receiving corps, as record-setting 32-year old RB Curtis Martin simply won't be able to shoulder the offensive load as usual against the league's third-ranked run defense.

When the Jets have the ball

Rushing: This is the facet of the game that potentially could be devastating to the Jets. Coordinator Paul Hackett's offense is dependent on the running game to set up the pass. For the most part the unit has been successful in doing so with Martin finishing as the NFL's oldest running back to lead the league in rushing. However, against upper-echelon run defenses such as the one the Jets faced in Week 14 against the Steelers and Week 16 against the Patriots, the unit has failed to maintain its blueprint for success.

The problem the team has is that it struggles to work in the opposite direction with the pass setting up the run. It also lacks the depth and speed at wide receiver to spread opposing defenses out in order to loosen up big, physical front sevens like the one it will face in San Diego. The Jets have one of the bigger, stronger and better run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. OC Kevin Mawae is a crafty veteran who still ranks among the elite run blockers at his position and OGs Pete Kendall and Brandon Moore are classic maulers who typically overwhelm opposing defensive tackles with their power and leverage.

Martin

The problem is that the Chargers' defensive front three seems to get its job done even against the biggest and toughest offensive lines in the business. The scheme doesn't require playmaking skills from the Charger defensive linemen but it does call on NT Jamal Williams and DEs Igor Olshansky and Jacques Cesaire to play with discipline and occupy gaps.

If that group can continue to successfully execute its assignments against the interior of the Jets' offensive line, it will make sledding tough for Martin and LaMont Jordan against a linebacker corps with a good mix of size, athleticism, toughness, instincts and tackling skills with Randall Godfrey and Donnie Edwards inside and Ben Leber and Steve Foley outside.

Passing: The Chargers finished the regular season tied for third-to-last in the NFL with just 29 sacks and 31st in the league in overall pass defense. As good as the Chargers' front three has been in terms of taking up space versus the run, there isn't a playmaking pass rusher among them. Foley is the unit's best pass rusher with 10 sacks, but there isn't enough complementary help around him.

Due to the Chargers' lack of range at the safety position (Terrence Kiel and Jerry Wilson), along with the inconsistent play of RCB Drayton Florence and nickel CB Sammy Davis, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips simply can't afford to take many chances with the blitz. The big question, however, is if the Jets can exploit their opponent's biggest weakness in this game. Judging by past results, film study and individual matchup analysis, the answer has to be no.

Pennington

For starters, Pennington's shoulder clearly is still less than 100 percent. He has never had good arm strength and now it has become a liability, as defenses are "pinching" him inside and forcing Pennington to make throws outside the numbers that exploit his lack of velocity. WRs Santana Moss and Justin McCareins flash vertical potential, but neither has been as consistent as expected. Secondly, with Pennington struggling to drive the ball downfield, Moss and McCareins' potential for big-play production is severely limited.

Finally, Pennington is one of the best in the business when it comes to selling play-fakes and spreading the ball underneath to his backs and tight ends against linebackers that are caught taking false steps. However, against a veteran linebacker corps with one of the league's elite cover linebackers manning the middle on passing downs, those dump-off routes won't be as readily available.

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Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Overall, if the Jets could establish a running game in order to set up the play-action passing series, it would create a lot of potential mismatches for Pennington to attack. However, if the Jets are unable to force the Chargers to overextend a safety in run support or if they are forced to abort the run completely in an effort to throw from behind, then Pennington simply doesn't have the arm or the array of weapons to efficiently operate the Jets' offense in this road game.

When the Chargers have the ball

Rushing: San Diego's offense is balanced. It has proven capable of beating opponents in the air, on the ground and with a mix of both. Against a Jets defense that has been considerably more successful defending the run than it has been versus the pass, look for the Chargers to pass in order to set up the run. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has done a good job of mixing up formations and personnel groupings in order to keep opponents on their heels, and the flexibility that Gates provides at the tight end position has a lot to do with that.

Gates

Gates spends a good majority of the time in-line as a traditional tight end, but he has been equally effective as a receiver and run blocker when "flexed" out as a slot receiver-type. In order to generate some mismatches in the passing game, as well as to limit the amount of defenders the Jets can use inside "the box", look for Gates to spend a lot more time "flexed" out.

The Jets use a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defensive front alignment, but the personnel essentially remain the same with Shaun Ellis at LDE, Jason Ferguson at NT and Dewayne Robertson at either DT in the 4-3 or DE in the 3-4. The Jets have been getting very good penetration from their defensive front and their linebacker corps has been active, tough and aggressive. The unit has gotten surprisingly effective play from fill-in starting SLB Mark Brown, and WLB Eric Barton and rookie MLB Jonathan Vilma show very good range and athleticism.

If the Chargers simply try to line up and pound away at the Jets front seven with Tomlinson on the ground they'll be unpleasantly surprised with the results. However, if the Chargers can do a good job of spreading the Jets out through the air early on in order to force the Jets into nickel personnel as their base package, it will leave the Jets susceptible to the run later on.

Passing: The Jets will really miss RDE/OLB John Abraham if he's unable to make his return in this game. Without him, the Jets' only consistent pass rusher has been Ellis, who recorded three sacks against the Rams in the team's regular-season finale. After studying that film, the Chargers will give him more attention by sliding their pass-blocking scheme and by chipping him with backs and tight ends.

Abraham

The catch-22 the Jets will have without Abraham is that they leave themselves exposed underneath against Tomlinson and Gates, who combined for 134 receptions this season, if they blitz too often. However, if they sit back with seven defenders in coverage and give Brees time to set up, make his progression reads and step into his throws, the matchups in the secondary aren't not very promising for the Jets.

San Diego doesn't have any elite playmakers on the perimeter, but its versatility and array of pass-catching weapons make it extremely difficult to defend the entire field. Because Tomlinson and Gates are such prominent figures in the passing attack, the Jets will be forced to give Tomlinson more linebacker attention and Gates more safety attention than they would like. Barton and Vilma are two very good athletes in coverage, which will help the Jets matchup underneath against Tomlinson, but neither can be consistently left alone one-on-one.

Furthermore, Gates has a significant size advantage over SS Reggie Tongue and would be a big matchup problem for the veteran safety if left alone to frequently. That means the Jets will have to play more "soft" cover-2 zone than coordinator Donnie Henderson would wants in order to limit Tomlinson underneath and Gates down the seams.

With Eric Parker, Keenan McCardell, Kassim Osgood and "tweener" TE/WR Ryan Krause rounding out a deep and surprisingly productive receiving corps, the Chargers should also be able to spread the field with a lot of multiple-receiver sets in order to flood areas against the Jets' zone coverage, as well as generate mismatches against the below-average cornerback trio of David Barrett, Donnie Abraham and Terrell Buckley.

Scouts' Edge

So much has changed since these teams met 16 weeks ago that it's not even worth it to dust off the film when breaking down Saturday's wild-card matchup. The Jets can be an effective team when they chew up clock and wear an opponent down with Martin on the ground, but that won't be an option against one of the league's elite run defenses.

Pennington is extremely effective when working out of the play-action passing package, but he doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons at wide receiver and tight end to fully exploit the Chargers' only weak link on defense, which is their secondary. The Jets lack the pass rush and secondary play to throw Brees' timing off. Once the Chargers open up a lead, Tomlinson can act as the closer in the second half against a Jets defense that already looks tired and should wear down easily after a cross-country trip in much warmer conditions than it is used to back in the northeast.

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Jets DE John Abraham (knee) has been practicing and is expected to play a situational role in Saturday's game. Even if Abraham can only participate on 15-20 plays, it will be an unexpected and much-needed boost for this unit. The Jets' only legitimate pass-rushing weapon along the defensive line during Abraham's absence has been LDE Shaun Ellis, who had three sacks in the season finale versus the Rams.

Ellis

Ellis certainly provides a mismatch against Chargers ROT Shane Olivea, but because the Jets have very little complementary help, the Chargers would be able to double team Ellis or at least shift their blocking schemes his way. With a fresh Abraham on the field in certain passing-down situations, the Chargers either will have to account for both Ellis and Abraham on the perimeter, which should open up more room for DTs Dewayne Robertson and Jason Ferguson while also creating more gaps for Jonathan Vilma to blitz up the middle.

Building on the last point, getting front-four pressure on QB Drew Brees will be one of the biggest keys for Jets' defense. TE Antonio Gates demands more than single coverage. The Jets will need to press him with a linebacker a good majority of the time at the line of scrimmage and then give that linebacker (likely SLB Mark Brown) safety help over the top from SS Reggie Tongue.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson also demands more respect as a receiver than most running backs in the NFL, which is why the Jets will likely need to play a lot of zone-underneath coverage with WLB Eric Barton and MLB Vilma handling one-half responsibility. Because of how prevalent Gates and Tomlinson are in the passing game, the Jets would be leaving their defense extremely vulnerable if they got into a situation where they had to blitz too much in order to get more consistent pressure on Brees.

Despite resting several key starters in last week's meaningless game, the Chargers' wide receiver corps and return specialist group enter the playoffs banged up. Keenan McCardell (hamstring), Tim Dwight (toe) and Eric Parker (ribs) are all listed as questionable. Reche Caldwell (knee) has obviously been out since October, which takes away from the depth of the unit, as well. Robb Butler, a safety who has helped return kickoffs down the stretch, should play but could be affected by a toe injury.

Dwight

The team misses Dwight the most in the return game, as it simply lacks the same explosive potential in that facet. Dwight is expected to play on Saturday, but his role/effectiveness in the return game is very much up in the air. It should be fine if McCardell and Parker are able to play at a relatively high level because Kassim Osgood and TE/WR Ryan Krause can provide good depth as sub-package contributors behind those two. However, if McCardell and/or Parker fail to play to expectations or if one or both is unable to finish the game, it would give the Jets' much-maligned secondary a huge break.

The other situation the Chargers are dealing with is the flu that DE Igor Olshansky has come down with. The rookie DE missed significant practice time during the middle of the week and it is unknown how much that will affect his playing time and/or effectiveness. Olshansky has been one of the underrated players in the NFL this season, as his discipline, strength and leverage versus the run have played a big part in the Chargers' excellence versus the run.

If he isn't as dominant as he was during the second half of the regular season, it will cause depth issues and force the smaller and less powerful DeQuincy Scott into a role that he isn't cut out for. One thing is for certain, playing a day early this week isn't working in Olshansky's favor.

Jets offensive coordinator Paul Hackett has to be more creative and aggressive and his receivers have to respond with some big plays in the vertical passing game. The Jets simply will not be able to rely on RB Curtis Martin and the ground attack as much as they have become accustomed to this season. The Chargers are aggressive in run support, they like to blitz a lot, and they play a lot of press coverage on the perimeter with CBs Quentin Jammer and Drayton Florence.

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Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

The Chargers aren't nearly as talented as the Eagles at cornerback or effective in terms of their blitz package, but they play a similar scheme, as they expect their cornerbacks to smother receivers at the line in order to give the pass rush time to get to the quarterback. If the Jets don't take more shots vertically early on and if QB Chad Pennington isn't able to exploit the mismatches that WRs Santana Moss, Justin McCariens and Wayne Chrebet represent, the Charger defense will continue to tighten as the game progresses.

Chrebet

Chrebet's return to the lineup after missing time due to another concussion shouldn't be overlooked. For starters, the Jets' lack of depth is a glaring weakness. Teams with three and four talented receivers have been most successful against the Chargers this season because that depth at the position allows them to spread the Chargers out and to attack their biggest area of concern, the secondary.

Secondly, the Jets seem to lack a go-to-presence in clutch situations because Moss and McCareins still tend to disappear from games too often. Chrebet doesn't offer much in terms of the vertical presence that Pennington will need in order to stretch the Charger's aggressive defense out vertically, but he is a security blanket for Pennington to target on critical third-down situations.

The poor play of their offensive line has been a big reason for the Jets' stumbles down the stretch of the regular season and it is a major concern as the team prepares to take on one of the most underrated defensive front sevens in the NFL. One thing that stands out on film is that this unit is made of massive mauling types that lack great athleticism to begin with and seem to be even more sluggish as they've worn down late in the season.

LOT Jason Fabini has struggled mightily in terms of pass protection and with penalties the last two weeks, and ROB Brandon Moore hasn't been nearly as efficient as he was in the middle of the season. The Jets gave up six sacks versus the Rams last week and, if they don't do a better job of communicating versus blitzes and stunts against an aggressive 3-4 scheme of the Chargers, Pennington could spend a lot more time on his back this Saturday.

Special Teams

The Jets have a considerable edge on special teams and the emergence of Jerricho Cotchery as a legitimate threat as a kickoff return specialist is one of the reasons why. The rookie Cotchery was inconsistent when first taking over the job, but he has made significant strides recently and had a breakout game last week with a 94-yard touchdown return.

The Chargers have been inconsistent in terms of covering kicks and Nate Kaeding's directional problems haven't helped. The team has turned to PT Mike Scifres in that department, which has helped down the stretch. However, if the Chargers aren't careful in this facet of special teams, it will help the Jets keep things closer than they should be in this game.

With Tim Dwight unlikely to resume his role as the team's return specialist in the playoffs, the Chargers don't have nearly the explosive potential in the return game that the Jets possess. Eric Parker is averaging just 8.8 yards per punt return and seems to be worn down with his dual responsibility. The team is likely to continue with a committee at the KOR position with Robb Butler and Jesse Chatman probably handling most of the returns.

The Chargers still aren't great in the kicking game but they have at least improved. Kaeding has connected on five of his last six field goal attempts after missing four of his first 19 attempts on the season. He has clearly settled in down the stretch, but it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of kicking in his first NFL playoff game. Scrifes has been much more consistent throughout the season, but he is also a youngster (second year pro) kicking in his first NFL postseason.

The Jets don't have the strong legs that the Chargers possess in the kicking game, but PT Toby Gowin and PK Doug Brien form a much more experienced and reliable tandem. Brien has connected on 24 of 29 field goal attempts on the season with a long of 53 yards. Gowin hasn't had nearly as consistent of a season with an average of just 38.2 yards per punt, but he is battle-tested and does possess very good directional skills.

Matchups

San Diego TE Antonio Gates vs. N.Y. Jets SS Reggie Tongue

San Diego WR Eric Parker vs. N.Y. Jets RCB David Barrett

San Diego ROT Shane Olivea vs. N.Y. Jets LDE Shaun Ellis

N.Y. Jets WR Santana Moss vs. San Diego LCB Quentin Jammer

N.Y. Jets OC Kevin Mawae vs. San Diego NT Jamal Williams

Prediction: Chargers 23, Jets 17

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Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Den @ Indy +++++

Why To Watch

Familiarity adds an element of intrigue in this matchup. Not only do these teams face off for the second week in a row, but this is the second-consecutive year the Colts play host to the Broncos in the AFC wild-card round. The outcome will depend largely on the team that is able to dictate the tempo of play.

The high-powered, yet balanced Colts' offense will look to spread the Broncos out and attack by air and by ground with Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison leading the charge. Denver, on the other hand, knows its only chance of keeping up is to play keep away with strong dedication to the run with Reuben Droughns and Tatum Bell. The Broncos' defense matches up better against Indy's offense than most, but can quarterback Jake Plummer limit his mistakes in order to give his team a chance to pull off the upset?

When the Broncos have the ball

Rushing: This is where the game will be won or lost for Denver. The Broncos' only chance of keeping things close is to control the clock and field position with an overwhelmingly methodical and successful running attack. Their offensive line has the right combination of size, strength and athleticism to eventually where down an undersized but extremely active and disruptive defensive front seven of the Colts.

Until they can exploit the Colts via the air, the Broncos will have to get used to blocking against eight-man fronts with SS Mike Doss cheated up as a fourth-linebacker type. Because the Broncos lack of depth at wide receiver, they'll spend most of their time in either two-back sets or two-tight end sets, which means this matchup will essentially be played in a phone booth. The Broncos are famous for their zone-blocking running scheme, which allows their offensive linemen to block an area rather than matching up one-on-one. Within that scheme, cutting backside defensive linemen and making second-level blocks against backside linebacker and/or safeties are crucial in order to set up cutback lanes for Droughns and Bell to exploit.

Morris

The Colts should receive a boost with the return of MLB Rob Morris, who missed significant time in the final month of the season due to two concussions. Morris doesn't have great speed or athletic ability, which makes him a target in the passing game, but he is the Colts' biggest, strongest and toughest linebacker. With eight-man fronts and two of the faster OLBs in the NFL manning the perimeter in David Thornton and Cato June, running east-west won't be an effective means of establishing the run.

In fact, if the Broncos are going to slow the tempo down and keep Manning off the field, their best bet is to go with a heavy dose of the bigger and more powerful Droughns early on in order to best utilize his north-south running style, and then get the faster and more explosive Bell involved later on when the Colts' defense begins to wear down.

Passing: Plummer might be the biggest individual "X-factor" in this game. He has always been a scrappy, competitive quarterback who is capable of getting into a "zone" and making a lot of plays in a big game like this. The problem, however, is that his mental mistakes and critical errors can overshadow the plays he does make and, if things start to go poorly early on, Plummer is the type of quarterback who will self-implode. His role in this game is two-fold: 1) limit drive-killing mistakes and turnovers, and 2) exploit man-coverage when the Colts get caught being overaggressive.

Plummer

The passing attack will take a backseat to the run, but balance will also be critical in order to keep the Colts honest on defense and to exploit them for some big plays when they get caught cheating. The play-action passing package is where Plummer does his best work and it should be available throughout Sunday's game ? particularly on first and second downs. When the Colts do move Doss up into "the box" they'll be left with three defenders to cover the deep one-thirds of the field ? either man-to-man or in cover-3 zone fashion.

Either way, CBs Jason David and Nick Harper go from being protected downfield by their safeties to being responsible for turning and running against WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie, respectively. When the Colts are left exposed in those situations, Plummer has to do a great job of looking off FS Bob Sanders and making throws that put his receivers in position to make plays against the Colts' overmatched corners.

Smith should be a reliable short-to-intermediate option for Plummer throughout the game but Lelie has the speed and playmaking skills to provide the home run. Because the Colts are so athletic at outside linebacker they should be able to keep the Broncos' running backs and tight ends in check. That's why Plummer's ability to make perimeter throws to Smith and Lelie is critical.

When the Colts have the ball

Rushing: Denver has quietly had one of the stouter run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 94.5 yards per game on the ground during the regular season. For starters, Champ Bailey's presence on one side of the field has afforded the team the luxury of cheating one of their two safeties ? John Lynch and Kenoy Kennedy ? up into the box on early downs.

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Secondly, as rookie WLB D.J. Williams' instincts and recognition skills have improved, so too has the overall range of the second-level defense. Finally, even without LDE Trevor Pryce throughout almost the entire regular season, the Broncos' front four has played with discipline across the board and its depth at defensive tackle with Monsanto Pope, Mario Fatafehi and Ellis Johnson has allowed the interior to stay fresh, strong and active.

Clark

As a result, the Colts will need to spread the Broncos out with multiple-receiver sets and throw in order to set up the run. The one advantage the Colts have in this game is that even Bailey will need occasional help in coverage against Harrison. With WRs Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley also demanding attention and with TE Dallas Clark providing a vertical presence down the middle, the Broncos will often be relegated to nickel and dime personnel and rarely will be able to crown the line of scrimmage in support of the run.

With Pryce back to add depth to an already deep and solid defensive line and with MLB Al Wilson and Williams covering ground versus the run from sideline-to-sideline, James won't have much room to run even against the Broncos' six-man fronts. However, if the Colts can get into a rhythm via the air and keep the Broncos' front seven on its heels, James will play a critical role with approximately 15 carries on draws, counters and zone runs that catch the Broncos out of position.

Passing: There isn't a defense in the NFL that outmatches the Colts' passing attack from a personnel standpoint. However, the Broncos do match up better than most on this side of the ball. Because of Manning's uncanny ability to recognize the blitz and beat it by making quick, accurate throws to his "hot receivers" underneath, the only feasible way to pressure him is to do so with a four-man rush.

Hayward

For most defenses that is a problem, but for a Broncos unit that saw 16 different defenders recording at least one sack during the regular season, that shouldn't be a problem. RDE Reggie Hayward finished the season with a team-high 10.5 sacks, but he draws a tough assignment against LOT Tarik Glenn. If Hayward can't get the same type of pressure that this unit has come accustomed to him providing, a lot of the pressure will fall on the shoulders of Pryce, who is still rusty but has the size, strength and athletic ability to overwhelm ROT Ryan Diem on the perimeter.

Bailey, Wilson and Williams are the other three reasons why the Broncos should hold their own better than most defenses in this matchup. Bailey is going to need help from a safety over the top more than half of the game, but his potential to hold up on an island against Harrison will give defensive coordinator Larry Coyer some flexibility in terms of blitzing Manning and throwing some different combo-coverage looks his way.

Wilson and Williams are also athletic enough to keep James and Marcus Pollard in check in man-to-man coverage underneath, which should give the Broncos the numbers they need with five defensive backs covering Harrison, Stokley and Wayne. Manning will need to be patient throughout this game and he'll need a lot of support from his offensive line. He will still have matchups to exploit ? such as Reggie Wayne versus RCB Kelly Herndon and Stokley versus rookie nickel CB Roc Alexander, but the big plays might not be as readily available if the Broncos can get away with playing their nickel and dime personnel while rushing only four throughout the game.

Scouts' Edge

Throw last week's game out the window. The Colts have everything going for them in this matchup. They were able to rest their key players last week and were able to mask their offense and defense by playing vanilla schemes, while the Broncos sold out physically and schematically in order to earn a trip to "the dance".

The Colts are not only at home but they also benefit from playing on the fast track of the RCA Dome, which accentuates their speed advantage on both sides of the football. The Broncos do match up better on defense than most of the Colts' opponents this season because of Bailey at left cornerback, their speed at linebacker with Wilson and Williams, and their ability to generate a front-four pass rush. However, with Harrison, Wayne, Stokley, Clark and James spread out horizontally and vertically; Manning still has too many weapons for the Broncos to keep up.

Denver should be able to establish another solid time-consuming rushing attack with Droughns and Bell, but too many mistakes and a lack of efficiency from Plummer will lead to entirely too many opportunities for Manning. Expect a close first half but for the Colts to pull away with this one in the third and fourth quarters.

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

There's good news and bad news for the Colts on the injury front. The good news is that OG Rick DeMulling (ribs) should be back in the starting lineup after missing three games and CBs Nick Harper (back) and Joseph Jefferson (knee) will also be ready to play after they were held out of action last week.

The bad news, however, is that it doesn't look like TE Dallas Clark will be able to play following a concussion he suffered against the Broncos last week. The Colts still have solid veteran Marcus Pollard to rely on at the position, but Pollard isn't the vertical weapon that Clark is and, without Clark, offensive coordinator Tom Moore won't be able to use the two-tight end sets that he likes so much.

After QB Peyton Manning disassembled the Broncos' defense in this same forum a year ago, the Broncos elected to focus on upgrading their defense, most specifically with the trade of RB Clinton Portis for CB Champ Bailey. One year later it's now time to see if that move paid off. The Broncos are obviously huge underdogs but on paper they match up better defensively than most teams.

Harrison

Bailey

Perhaps the most important individual matchup is the one between WR Marvin Harrison and Bailey. The Broncos need to move Bailey around and let him mirror Harrison at all times. Bailey is used to playing on both sides of the field so footwork should not be an issue. Even then, the Broncos will need to account for Harrison's big-play capabilities with at least one and often two safeties deep in case Harrison, Reggie Wayne or Brandon Stokley gets over the top.

The Colts feed off of early scores because it forces opponents to abort the run, which feeds into the athletic nature of Indy's defense. Giving up a big play early in this game simply can't be an option for the Broncos.

Spreading the field with three-receiver sets and Pollard "flexed" out into the slot has to be the Colts' primary initiative on Sunday. Denver has the athletes at linebacker with Al Wilson and D.J. Williams to hold up better than most in man coverage. The Broncos also have a potential advantage if Bailey can do a good job of limiting Harrison in coverage.
However, the rest of the Denver secondary is a source of weakness that Manning can exploit.

Wayne vs. RCB Kelly Herndon and Stokley vs. Roc Alexander are the two biggest mismatches in the Colts' favor. Wayne's 71-yard touchdown last week versus Denver was the longest of his career and his team will be looking for more big plays from him this week because of the mismatch he represents against Alexander. Also, by spreading the field horizontally and vertically, it will prevent the Broncos from loading up versus Edgerrin James and the running game, while also limiting the Broncos' options when it comes to the blitz.

QB Jake Plummer is the player who will be under the brightest spotlight for Denver in this game. The Broncos are obviously looking to slow down the tempo with a strong dedication to the running attack, but in order to keep drives going and to keep the Indianapolis defense honest, Plummer has to be much more efficient than he was throughout the majority of the regular season.

The Broncos have some mismatches in the passing game they can target with WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie, as well as with TE Jeb Putzier. They also have an offensive line that has given up just 15 sacks this season and is capable of protecting Plummer against a Colts front four that has quickly developed into one of the most devastating pass-rushing groups in the NFL. However, Plummer's poor accuracy and inconsistent decision-making skills are what have to be concerning coach Mike Shanahan and his staff the most right now.

If Plummer is unable to convert on third downs and if he isn't efficient enough working against a Colts defense that is likely to be overzealous on several occasions because of its "stop-the-run-first" mentality, the Broncos will have no chance of keeping Manning & Co. off the field long enough to stay within striking distance.

Putzier

The Broncos need a big game from Putzier, who improved as the season has progressed and has become one of Plummer's favorite targets. Putzier is an above average athlete with solid hands. He isn't a huge vertical threat, but he does have enough speed to get down the seam and stretch the field. Against a Colts defense that will split most of its time between a cover-2 and cover-3 look, Putzier's role can't be overstated.

When working against the cover-2 with two safeties splitting deep-middle responsibility, Putzier must do a good job of getting down the field and making his presence known. If the Colts' safeties are caught cheating toward the sidelines, Putzier has to capitalize by finding the soft spot down the middle between the middle linebacker and the safeties.

Against a cover-3 with SS Mike Doss cheated up, Putzier needs to exploit Doss below-average man-to-man cover skills by using his quickness and athleticism to gain separation. Conversely, if Putzier is unable to provide consistency in the passing game for Denver, it will give the Colts a lot more flexibility to be aggressive with their safeties in coverage and in run support.

Special Teams

Denver's Jason Elam and Indianapolis' Mike Vanderjagt are two of the league's elite place-kickers and they provide a lot of confidence and stability for their respective teams as each heads into the playoffs. Elam has been the more consistent of the two this season. He finished the season strong, hitting all four of his field goal attempts against the Colts last week. Elam has hit 10 of his last 11 and finished the regular season 29-of-34 on FGAs.

Vanderjagt

Vanderjagt wasn't as consistent as usual this season, as he hit 20 of 25 FGAs overall and also missed two of his final eight attempts down the stretch. However, Vanderjagt does have a stronger leg than Elam and he also has been a better "dome kicker" throughout his career, which makes this a very even battle if it comes down to field goals.

After really struggling in the kickoff department, the Colts have seemingly solved their problems in that department thanks to the upgrade that Martin Gramatica has provided as the team's kickoff specialist. Gramatica has shown good distance, hang time and directional skills on his kickoffs, which has given the cover units a better opportunity to get downfield and make a play.

With Gramatica upgrading the kickoff unit and PT Hunter Smith having another brilliant season with an impressive 45.2-yard per-punt average, the Colts should have no trouble keeping Denver rookie RS Triandos Luke in check. Luke has been a pleasant surprise as a consistent and reliable return man both on kickoffs and punt returns, but in all reality the Broncos need an upgrade at both positions next season. Luke is sure-handed and protects the ball well but he lacks home run potential. He is averaging 20.4 yards per kickoff return with a long of only 32 yards and 7.1 yards per punt return with a long of just 21 yards.

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Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

The Colts have a chance to make an impact in the return game, as PR Brad Pyatt and KOR Dominic Rhodes show much more explosive potential than Luke flashes for the Broncos. Pyatt made a healthy return last week after missing nearly the entire season because of injury. He looked a bit rusty in his return and the team is likely to limit him to just punt returns on Sunday, but he does have big-play speed if he catches a crease.

The other reason why the Colts will leave Pyatt off the kickoff return team is because Rhodes is coming into his own. He started off slow but finished with a late-season, 88-yard touchdown return and an overall average of 24.8 yards per kickoff return. PT/KO Jason Baker, who struggled with an average of just 39.4 yards per punt this season, will need to do a much better job with his directional skills and accuracy on punts and kickoffs in order to prevent a big return from Pyatt and/or Rhodes.

Matchups

Denver WR Ashley Lelie vs. Indianapolis LCB Nick Harper

Denver RBs Rueben Droughns and Tatum Bell vs. Indianapolis MLB Rob Morris

Denver LOT Matt Lepsis vs. Indianapolis RDE Dwight Freeney

Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne vs. Denver LCB Champ Bailey

Indianapolis RB Edgerrin James vs. Denver MLB Al Wilson and WLB D.J. Williams

Prediction: Colts 30, Broncos 17

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

St. Louis Rams (8-8) at Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

Line: Rams +4

The Rams won both regular season meeting so why should I go against them now. This would mean my preseason pick for the NFC is gone but oh well life goes on. Expect the Rams to start off the 2005 playoffs with an exciting win.

Straight: Rams

Spread: Rams

New York Jets (10-6) at San Diego Chargers (12-4)

Line: Jets +4.5

Another game where it looks like one of my Super Bowl picks from the preseason will be ousted. I think the Jets can keep this close and win against the spread but the homefield advantage for the Chargers will put them over the top.

Straight: Chargers

Spread: Jets

Denver Broncos (10-6) at Indianapolis Colts (12-4)

Line: Broncos +9.5

The Colts did the right thing by not playing their starters last week because their hunch was right, they are facing Denver in the playoffs. Now the Colts get a full week of film study to prepare for what the Broncos will throw at them. This will be the blowout of the week as the Colts win by at least 20 points.

Straight: Colts

Spread: Colts

Minnesota Vikings (8-8) at Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Line: Vikings +5

The Vikings may have lost both of their regular season games against Green Bay on last minute field goals but it won?t matter in this game because the Vikings will not cover. The Vikings will find a new and creative way to lose this football game as Green Bay wins by a touchdown.

Straight: Packers

Spread: Packers

Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Rams at Seahawks

Time: 4:30 p.m. Sunday at Seattle, Wash.

Records: Rams (8-8); Seahawks (9-7)

The skinny: With a .500 record, St. Louis is in the playoffs for only one reason: The Rams beat Seattle twice during the regular season. Of course, the Rams also had to beat the Jets and Philadelphia Eagles - a pair of playoff teams - the past two weeks to garner one of the wild-card spots. And they had to go to overtime to beat the Jets, 32-29. If the Seahawks didn't beat Atlanta, 28-26, the Rams would have won the NFC West title. This is the fourth time in five seasons the Rams have been to the playoffs under Mike Martz. Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander (1,696), who lost the league rushing title by 1 yard to Curtis Martin, had three touchdowns in last year's playoff loss to the Packers. If he gets three again, he will be the first player in NFL history to have three touchdowns in back-to-back playoff games. And the Seadogs will win.

Prediction: Seahawks, 24-20

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Jets at Chargers

Time: 8 p.m. Saturday at San Diego, Calif.

Records: Jets (10-6); Chargers (12-4)

The skinny: New York somewhat backed into the playoffs, losing its final two regular-season games, but the Jets got some help when the Steelers beat Buffalo, knocking the Bills from playoff consideration. They will need all the help they can get against San Diego, one of the surprise teams of 2004. The Chargers have reversed their record from a year ago, when they were 4-12, and they've done it, basically, with some of the same personnel ... and same coach. Marty Schottenheimer is only the fifth coach in NFL history to lead three different teams to the playoffs, but he has never been to the Super Bowl. The Jets have to hope Curtis Martin, the NFL's leading rusher with 1,697 yards, can run against the league's No. 3 rush defense. Chad Pennington's arm will look inviting to a team that was third in the NFL with 23 interceptions.

Prediction: Chargers, 24-14

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Broncos at Colts

Time: 1 p.m. Sunday at Indianapolis, Ind.

Records: Broncos (10-6); Colts (13-3)

The skinny:If familiarity breeds contempt, the Indianapolis should have great disdain for Denver, its first-round playoff opponent for the second year in a row. This is the fourth time the Colts and Broncos have played in the past 12 1/2 months, and the Colts have won the games that mattered ... at least to them. The Broncos, though, won the game that mattered to them - 33-14 on Sunday, a victory they needed to get in to the playoffs as a wild-card entry. The Colts, though, rested most of their key players, including Peyton Manning. And this game is indoors, where the Colts are like Maurice Green on a rubberized track. A victory sends the Colts to New England for the second year in a row.

Prediction: Colts, 43-17

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Vikings at Packers

Time: 4:30 p.m. Sunday at Green Bay, Wisc.

Records: Vikings (8-8); Packers (10-6)

The skinny: Minnesota is making its first playoff appearance since 2000, and its stay should be short-lived. The Vikings haven't exactly steamrolled into the playoffs, losing their final two games, including 21-18 at Washington. Green Bay, on the other hand, won its third consecutive division title by winning its final two games - quite a comeback for a team that started 1-4. Brett Favre has been through this playoff procedure before. He needs two touchdown passes to join Joe Montana (45) as the only quarterbacks to throw 35 or more touchdowns in the postseason. The Packers have won the past three meetings with the Vikings, and it doesn't seem to matter where they play. The Packers have won the past two games by the same score, 34-31, the most recent being just two weeks ago.

Prediction: Packers, 34-31

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Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

San Diego Chargers -6'.

Marty ball has got the Chargers home field advantage. I will pay extra for that in the playoffs. On the other side, the Jets are playing their second road game in a row. Chargers may be slightly underrated at the moment since they haven't had anything to win in the last couple games, they may have held back a little bit. Jets had more to gain, and probably played closer to their true potential. Jets can't put the kind of points up they will need to stay in this game. Take the home field.

Sunday

Denver Broncos/Indianapolis Colts OVER 56.

This game has "shoot-out" written all over it. Both teams quite capable of putting up 30 points each. Don't let last weeks score fool you. This time the Colts will leave Peyton Manning at the controls for more than one series. Weather is not a factor in a dome. Play it this way and root for whoever has the ball.

Rams/Seahawks is a coin toss to me. Both teams belong in the "One and Done" category. After sweeping the series, seems like Rams should be the favorite, but I just don't jump up and go against home field with an 8-8 team. Vikings/Green Bay. Almost playable after Packers swept the series. My problem with this one is the Pack has played it's best football on the road this season. Second problem is the other two games were decided by a field goal. Not eager to lay 6 points this time.

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Senor Capper · Jan 7, 2005

Wild-card primer: Revved up for rematches
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Vinnie Iyer /
Posted: 19 hours ago

There is no lack of familiarity between the opponents of each playoff game in this weekend's wild-card round. In the AFC, New York beat San Diego way back in Week 2, and Denver got into the playoffs by beating Indianapolis' "B" team just last week. In the NFC, West rivals Seattle and St. Louis and North rivals Green Bay and Minnesota have both extended their respective season series to three games.

Although there are certain aspects of the previous matchups that give us an indication of what will happen this week, the playoffs provide a fresh chance for vindication. The Jets and Broncos will face much more potent offenses than what they saw before. Whatever mistakes the Seahawks and Vikings made in being swept by the Rams and Packers can be corrected.

So, in which games is history likely to repeat itself? And which teams will go tabula rasa? Let's find out. ...

Ryan Longwell twice hit game-winning field goals with no time left on the clock.

Rematch of the week I

Minnesota at Green Bay. If you live in Mankato or Waukesha and still have the teams' Week 10 and Week 16 games on your TiVo, you just might get the replays confused. The Packers won both at Lambeau and the Metrodome 34-31 as Ryan Longwell twice hit game-winning field goals with no time left on the clock.

With the teams both featuring explosive offenses and porous defenses, this matchup will have more of the pace of the Duke-North Carolina basketball rivalry, where many heated games come down to the last possession. Call the Vikes Duke ? they can burn you with the deep ball and still pound it inside. Call the Pack UNC ? they methodically work the four corners of the field with Brett Favre as point guard.

Both Favre and Daunte Culpepper can make game-winning shots at the end, so this game will be more about who controls the tempo in the first three quarters. The Packers won the time-of-possession arrow in both previous meetings, thanks to their steady running game.

Strangely, winning the assist-to-turnover battle in both games (plus-1 in each) didn't help the Vikings, despite the fact they even scored on an interception return in Minneapolis. Ball control will be key again ? you can't afford to give easy fast-break opportunities to either Favre or Culpepper.

The difference, late in this game, will come from the better secondary. With cornerback Antoine Winfield hampered and strong safety Corey Chavous out, the Vikes will be in trouble against Javon Walker and Donald Driver. The Pack, however, have gotten a boost from top corner Al Harris, and Randy Moss doesn't appear to be operating at full speed. It's far from a slam dunk, but I like Longwell to get nothing but net on the game-winning field goal again. Packers 34, Vikings 31.

Rematch of the week II

New York Jets at San Diego. In Week 2, the Jets' offense moved the ball at will with Curtis Martin's running and Chad Pennington's play-action passing. The Chargers' struggled early, which sent Drew Brees to the bench and gave Doug Flutie a chance to spark a late surge.

Fast forward four months, and it's Pennington who's feeling the heat with his bad shoulder and inconsistent play and Brees who is the toast of his town with his first Pro Bowl nod and first playoff start. That should lead to a quite different result this week.

The combination of LaDainian Tomlinson's explosive running, tight end Antonio Gates' uncanny athleticism and Brees' newfound big-playmaking arm has made defenses dizzy. The Chargers have consistently brought electricity, and now their Big Three is fully charged after a week off.

Everything the Jets do relies heavily on Martin and their ground game, which also plays to the strength of tackle Jamal Williams, inside linebacker Donnie Edwards and San Diego's stout 3-4 run defense. Their big bugaboo has been the lack of big pass plays downfield, which will give the Bolts' young secondary a big break. Expect a tough, well-played game on both sides, but all the personnel matchups favor the home team. Chargers 24, Jets 20.

Rematch of the week III

St. Louis at Seattle. It's the Inconsistency Bowl, brought to you by WhatwascoachMikethinking.com. The Rams swept the season series by doing what they do best ? passing the ball often with Marc Bulger. For the Seahawks to stop the skid when it counts the most, they need to do what they do best better this time around ? run the ball often with Shaun Alexander.

If Shaun Alexander doesn't get at least 25 carries this week, the Seahawks will lose again. (Elsa / GettyImages)

Alexander's vocal disappointment about falling a yard short of Martin's league-leading rushing total actually might affect coach Mike Holmgren's game-planning this week. Ever so slightly, it put in the coach's mind just how important Alexander has been to the team's success this season. If Alexander doesn't get at least 25 carries against St. Louis' Swiss cheese front seven this week, the 'Hawks will lose again.

It's strange, but although some Mike Martz critics say the Rams should run the ball more in a more balanced offense, I think they are better off when they just focus on max-protecting Bulger and then let him fire away downfield to Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald. Marshall Faulk no longer can carry the load, and it's hard to rely on rookie back Steven Jackson in such a big game, even against Seattle's own shaky front seven.

Both teams are capable of blowing out the other or blowing the game late. I'm still dumbfounded, however, that the Rams are in the playoffs with a league-worst minus-24 turnover margin. That, and the 'Hawks plus-8, is why I'm giving the slightest of edges to Holmgren's team. Seahawks 27, Rams 26.

Rematch of the week IV

Denver at Indianapolis. Note to Mike Shanahan: These are not Week 17's Colts. These are the Colts who came to be in last year's 41-10 wild-card playoff rout of your Broncos. These are the Colts with record-breaking Peyton Manning delivering the ball wherever he wants to Marvin Harrison, Brandon Stokley and Reggie Wayne. These are the Colts who can change gears whenever they want and pound the ball with Edgerrin James.

Look for Indianapolis to get off to a fast start on the fast track of the RCA Dome as Manning finds Stokley and Wayne for big plays off mismatches. Tony Dungy knows his team needs to build big early leads to help protect his young defense. He also knows once Denver can't afford to run the ball, they can't throw it effectively, either.

Once Indy isn't worried about Jake Plummer's play-action, their front four, led by end Dwight Freeney, will be in complete pass-rush mode to put pressure on Plummer. When that happens, Plummer will force bad passes into the coverage of the Colts' opportunistic defensive backs. The Broncos have a little big-play prowess of their own with Ashley Lelie and Rod Smith, but it won't happen enough to beat Manning in a shootout. Colts 42, Broncos 24.

Stats of the week

Week 17 record straight up: 10-6

Season record straight up: 157-99

Week 17 record vs. the spread: 10-6

Season record vs. the spread: 105-146-5

Locks (straight up): 16-2

Upsets (straight up): 6-11

Wild Card Weekend Various Analysis

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