i saw that bet yesterday as well (i believe youre referring to the bet at carib)
i actually was tempted to play the opposite (no #1 seed wins the tourney at +225)
playing "no" gets you maryland, duke, kansas, and pittsburgh. (as well as the other sleepers, but they wont come into play)
heres how i look at it.
would you lay almost 3:1 odds that maryland, duke, kansas or pitt WONT win?
you really think oklahoma, texas, arizona, or kentucky are THREE TIMES BETTER than maryland, kansas, pittsburgh, and duke?
i dont believe that.
i know sometimes that "all value can buy you is a 99-cent cheeseburger at mcdonalds" but i dont see how there "value" in laying 3-1 basically against those 4 teams (mary,duke,kans,pit)