Will they find the plane this weekend?

JOSHNAUDI

JOSHNAUDI

That Guy
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WhatsHisNuts said:
Bravo on posting that airliners.net site. It's a fascinating read.
Click to expand...

I've got a shitload of work to do but just spent an hour on that site

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6025081/1/
"""""
**** SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER: rcair1 (Post 77 from thread 23) ****

First - synopsis
- The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing

- The last ACARS transmission was about 01:07 local. This does not mean ACARS was shut off - just that was the last transmission of ACARS data (See ACARS below)

- The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local

- It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.

- The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.

- There are some reports of a descent and turn based on primary radar. The descent was on the order of 3000 ft to 29,500.

- There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight.

- Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - we do not know that it is the accident a/c.

- We STILL do not know if it was a track (multiple returns) or a few points returns.

- We have 'reports' of SATCOM system pings for some hours after LOS (loss of signal)

- There is confusion (and argument) about the content of those pings and if those pings can provide location information (See SATCOM below)

- We have no ELT signal detected.


ACARS
- ACARS is an automated aircraft health management system that transmits a/c maintenance information to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.

- ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight - it is a maintenance system

- ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.

- ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.


ACARS data from MH370
- MH370 sent 2 ACARS (or rather Engine Health) reports to Rolls Royce. The last was approximately 1:07

- Rolls Royce's would have expected only 1 more transmission at landing - that was never received.

- NOTE: this fact is in dispute - some reports say a transmission every 20 minutes or so was expected - however I believe that to be incorrect.

- The fact that the last ACARS was sent some time before the transponder signal was loss does not mean ACARS was turned off at that time. ACARS transmissions on this ship are not continuous


SATCOM
- SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.

- SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.

- The last communication via SATCOM was the last ACARS message at 1:07


SATCOM Pings.
- The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here." They are often called "keep alive" signals.

- SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel.

- There are reports that SATCOM pings were heard for up to 4 or 5 hours into flight (or after LOS)

- NOTE: to those complaining it took to long to report this - remember the SATCOM pings are deep in the communications protocol and not what people would normally look at. How often do you look at the basic network traffic on your router?

- There is speculation that the SATCOM pings contain altitude, heading, speed. From a communications standpoint that does not make sense.

- I believe what is really happening is that experts in this system are trying to derive some location, speed, etc. information from the nature of the pings For instance, what satellites did they hit, when and how strong. Much like GPS, you may be able to derive information about location.


Way-point Tracks:
- There are reports and maps today of a track following way-points.

- The source (Radar? Satcom? Visual?) and veracity of this information is not confirmed.

- At this point I cannot state any factual data related other than it is being discussed in the press


Airworthiness Directive
- The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.

- The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna


Search Areas Based on this information - authorities are searching:
- Along the planed route

- West over the Malacca straight

- North west of Malacca straight

- Near the islands of Andaman and Nicobar. Indian a/c report nothing found in this area.

- Unconfirmed: in the Indian Ocean. Initial reports were the US was sending the KIDD there, but I believe those were wrong


Conspiracy Theories:
- There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.

- We have no data to support any of them.

- The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the 'government is hiding it' aspects

- It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.


Mobile phones
- We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there.

- We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider.


We have lots of complaints about incompetence.
- I've been in and in command of large emergencies and been the one responsible to communicate to large groups.

- Even in the best situations, with cooperating agencies - it is easy to portray incompetence when what is really going on is hard work that is not providing the desired result.

- Complaints continue and will despite what any authority does till something happens.


We have had a lot of "false" sightings. I can not keep up.
- This is common and we need to investigate the credible ones. Most will be false.

- The Chinese Satellite data has not resulted in any findings.

- Indian aircraft have searched (some) near Andaman and Nicobar and nothing found


----------------------
In summary
We KNOW 4 things.
- The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.

- There is some evidence that it traveled west. But that evidence is not conclusive or sure.

- We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

- We have a better idea were it is NOT

**** SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER: rcair1 (Post 77 from thread 23) ****


Malaysian official says missing plane hijacked

Missing Malaysia plane MH370 said to be traced to sea off Australia




A REMINDER <acronym title="President Airlines (Cambodia)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help;">TO</acronym> <acronym title="Albenga (Villanova d'Albenga) (- Clemente Panero) (ALL / LIMG), Italy" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help;">ALL</acronym> OUR MEMBERS:


**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

**** Please do not repeat questions and scenarios that were covered and discussed in previous threads and which do not contribute in a constructive manner towards the real topic any longer. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

**** PLEASE <acronym title="Aircompany Tavria-Mac (Ukraine)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">BE</acronym> RESPECTFUL TOWARDS OTHER USERS <acronym title="Anderson - Regional (County) (AND / KAND), USA - South Carolina" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">AND</acronym> KEEP THE FORUM RULES <acronym title="Anderson - Regional (County) (AND / KAND), USA - South Carolina" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">AND</acronym> REGULATIONS<acronym title="MAT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">IN</acronym> MIND WHEN POSTING <acronym title="MAT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">IN</acronym> THE FORUMS. SHOULD THERE <acronym title="Aircompany Tavria-Mac (Ukraine)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">BE</acronym> ANY RULE VIOLATIONS, PLEASE BRING THIS<acronym title="President Airlines (Cambodia)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">TO</acronym> THE ATTENTION <acronym title="Transports et Travaux A?riens de Madagascar" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">OF</acronym> THE MODERATORS <acronym title="OLD: Britannia Airlines (United Kingdom), NEW: Thomsonfly (United Kingdom)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">BY</acronym> MAKING USE <acronym title="Transports et Travaux A?riens de Madagascar" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">OF</acronym> THE ?SUGGEST DELETION FUNCTION?. ****

**** WHEN STATING FACTS, STATISTICS <acronym title="Air Comores and Crimea Air (Ukraine)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">OR</acronym> NEWSWORTHY BULLETINS, PLEASE <acronym title="Aircompany Tavria-Mac (Ukraine)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">BE</acronym> SURE <acronym title="President Airlines (Cambodia)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">TO</acronym> INCLUDE <acronym title="Ansett Australia" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">AN</acronym>HTML LINK <acronym title="Air Comores and Crimea Air (Ukraine)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">OR</acronym> REFERENCE <acronym title="President Airlines (Cambodia)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">TO</acronym> A PUBLICATION. <acronym title="Great China Airlines and Italy First" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">IF</acronym> YOU ARE MERELY PROVIDING <acronym title="Ansett Australia" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">AN</acronym> OPINION, PLEASE MENTION THIS <acronym title="MAT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">IN</acronym> YOUR POST. <acronym title="Albenga (Villanova d'Albenga) (- Clemente Panero) (ALL / LIMG), Italy" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">ALL</acronym> MEMBERS ARE RESPONSIBLE <acronym title="President Airlines (Cambodia)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">TO</acronym> AVOID ARGUMENTS BASED <acronym title="Air Nauru" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">ON</acronym>RUMORS <acronym title="Air Comores and Crimea Air (Ukraine)" style="border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dotted; border-bottom-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); cursor: help; text-decoration: none;">OR</acronym> MISINFORMATION



Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

[SIZE=-4][Edited 2014-03-15 03:27:59]

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When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual ? Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
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Lumi

Lumi

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Aug 30, 2002
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In the shadows
FDC
Is behind this caper
Plane is at Top Secret Air Base in New Mexico
FDC has a World Wide fishing trip planned

Hey every other explanation has been brought forth,
Why not this?
 
JOSHNAUDI

JOSHNAUDI

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http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6025442/2/462375310#221

I think a recap of known facts and then some possibilities. We know:

- ACARS and the plane's transponder were turned off / disabled. The Malay PM described these as deliberate acts.

- The plane turned to a new flight path after ceasing all communication. The subsequent routing has been described as deliberate and not as the consquence of break up of the plane or break down of systems.

- Radar blips and other data available have been studied by the FAA, NTSB and AAIB as well as the Malay authorities and all of them (working independently) say that the radar blips were MH370 as it flew back over the Malay peninsular and into the Malacca Strait.

- The plane flew from 1:07 am to at least 8:10 am (all Malaysian time) based on attempts to ping Inmarsat's satellites. Further study of available data is being made to determine a more precise location.

- That equates to another seven or so hours flying time.

- Investigators have deduced from data that two potential 'corridors' of flying fit the data tracks, north to potentially the border of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan or somewhere before there, and south over Indonesia into the souther Indian Ocean.

- Flying across the Indian Ocean to Africa, or Diego Garcia is not in consideration by the investigators.

- We don't know how much fuel was on board and whether the suggested flying time was essentially as far as it could go.

- We don't know what was in the hold, and some reports have said that some cargo was not screened.

- There is no Iranian connection reported other than the two folk alledgedly seeking asylum on false passports.

- The Malays say that only now are they searching the flight deck crews homes (only the Captain mentioned so far).

- The investigators are leading us to assume, without saying so explicitly, that this was a hijack. We don't know if the flight deck crew were in on that.

- No debris, anywhere, has been sighted - the initial search areas have been well covered, but also no other debris has been reported as even possible anywhere (although some possibilities in terms of the potential corridors are very remote). Even planes such as AF447 that hit the sea intact left a lot of debris.

- Most importantly, still, we don't know the fate of the 237 people on board. This must be excrutiating if you are close to any of them.

If, as we're lead to believe, it is a highjacking then I do not believe it is a suicidal mission. Highjackers have demands and usually their wish is to live to see their demands met. So let's assume this is not a suicide mission by the crew, nor a 911 like event in the immediacy (since there hasn't been one, yet). It must relate then to another demand that we're yet to learn of or hasn't yet been made. Alternatively as some have suggested, it is a theft - there is someone, something or something else on the plane that is so valuable to someone or some organization as to plan and execute this event. Perhaps it is people or cargo, or even the plane itself to use in another way. Either way, this must have taken considerable planning and execution capability as to not be an act of a rogue group (in the sense of individual lunatics), but a well resourced and capable group. Further, that surprises me in that no 'chatter' has been picked up - or at least we don't know that either.

The magnitude of some of the possibilities is mind blowing, I bet that intelligence agencies the world over are drinking a lot of coffee at the moment. Even if it is a theft, probably the least worrisome outcome, that still leaves the people and covering up the location of the aircraft - and that implies a large network of support, even to state level.
Click to expand...
 
U

UGA12

Registered User
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Jul 7, 2003
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Between The Hedges
There are really only two things that make sense IMO if everything we know now is actually true.

1) The plane was flown(or at least trying to be flown) by one or more of the planes crew to a location and landed.

2) The plane was hijacked by either crew or passengers, and an attempt was made to take the plane back leading to a crash.


The thing that makes zero sense is intentionally flying 6 extra hours just to run out of gas and crash.

Here's to hoping we hear some demands for the release of the passengers in the near future!
 
Snafu

Snafu

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saint said:
To think that plane is anywhere but on the bottom of the ocean is crazy.
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99?% what i think, but until they find it, that ?% is so crazy to even think about

(but so was 9/11 before it actually happened)


:0008
 
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kickserv

kickserv

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pug said:
I will be live on CNN with Erin Burnett tomorrow night at 7:00PM to discuss this very incident.
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Gotta love when a Madjacker gets on CNN.........epic shit right there....epic:shocked:
 
saint

saint

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Okay I've come to amend my original post. There just may be some plausibility in the stolen plane theory.

I think someone else rightly pointed it out earlier in the thread...why go through all of these evasive maneuvers only to ditch the plane in the ocean? It doesn't really make sense. The biggest question is, why hijack a 777? If they wanted it for a payload of some sort (explosive, chemical), there have got to be graveyards full of functioning, retired airplanes. I'm sure there is a black market for that. Perhaps it would be the expense issue but the major terror groups are well-funded. I guess the theory would be cut the tracking devices, ascend rapidly to cause all passengers to pass out/expire if that is possible, drop down to low level flying to evade radar systems and park the plane somewhere in target zone.

For someone to be that calculating and intelligent, it just doesn't make sense to do all of those things and then ditch it in the ocean.
 
JOSHNAUDI

JOSHNAUDI

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saint said:
Okay I've come to amend my original post. There just may be some plausibility in the stolen plane theory.

I think someone else rightly pointed it out earlier in the thread...why go through all of these evasive maneuvers only to ditch the plane in the ocean? It doesn't really make sense. The biggest question is, why hijack a 777? If they wanted it for a payload of some sort (explosive, chemical), there have got to be graveyards full of functioning, retired airplanes. I'm sure there is a black market for that. Perhaps it would be the expense issue but the major terror groups are well-funded. I guess the theory would be cut the tracking devices, ascend rapidly to cause all passengers to pass out/expire if that is possible, drop down to low level flying to evade radar systems and park the plane somewhere in target zone.

For someone to be that calculating and intelligent, it just doesn't make sense to do all of those things and then ditch it in the ocean.
Click to expand...

It is what I have found fascinating - every plausible explanation has holes in it.
 
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