Winners and losers

[lostinamerica]

Seattle(-3)(-125) over Washington (1*)
- - The reasons why I should sit this game out are probably as solid as the reasons that have me going back and forth and back and forth on making a pick.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2013 NFL Playoffs YTD: 3-1 (+2.40*)
NFL Regular Season YTD: 44-28 (+16.41*)
2012 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)
2012-2013 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 13-7 (+5.70*)
Top Plays (included above): 16-7 (+13.68*)

Seattle(+3)(-131) over Atlanta (1.5*)
- - With Seattle now riding the momentum of overcoming a 14 point deficit, I won't be riding Atlanta as the team primed to dictate the outcome here.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Denver(-9) over Baltimore (1*)
Baltimore/Denver(Ov45) (1*)
- - The Denver defense under Jack Del Rio has been a strong suit of the team all season, and I expect they will be look like a fresh group today. On the other hand, after rising up for an exceptionally emotionally charged effort last week, the Ravens defense, which was on the field for 86 plays, now has to initiate and sustain for 60 minutes that same crescendo of intensity off a short week while traveling to a mile high playoff environment, while being pushed in the process by Manning and his no huddle tempo. I guess I see a big difference between the tasks facing the two defenses . . . While Baltimore is a consistently tough out in the playoffs, and Flacco has won more than his share of playoff games on the road, and Manning has to perform in some frigid conditions with less zip on his passes than two years ago, I have to give any lean to the Denver offense as well.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Green Bay(+3)(-115) over San Francisco (1 Biscuit)
- - I made my observation on SF QB Colin Kaepernick three weeks ago, and as I watched the Seattle game from start to finish, I became more and more convinced of the accuracy of my observation:

Seattle(-2') over San Francisco(1*)
- - I definitely believe this has been the best analyzed game of the week. I'll just add the observation that Kaepernick is showing a reliance on throwing quick to his first objective without the savvy to go through his progressions . . .

So afterwards I went looking for some scouting reports on Kaepernick, and the most complete one I found was from before the draft in April of 2011, and included the following highlights: ?Great athlete. Exception speed, quickness, and agility . . . Strong arm . . . Smart with the football, doesn't make many stupid decisions . . . Can throw on the run well . . . Never has had to read progressions. If first receiver isn't open, he always pulls it down . . . Footwork is all over the place . . . Cannot fit the ball into tight spaces with regularity . . . Does not put good touch on his passes . . . does not have the ability to "Throw his receiver open" . . . doesn't do a good job hitting his receivers right out of breaks, and on top of that, has never really taken the ball out from Center? . . . While Kaepernick has had some time and good coaching since college to develop in all of these areas, and SF excels at running lots of formations designed to get a specific route wide open, for a team earning favoritism all season to be making a Super Bowl run, IMO it was quite a big roll of the dice for the franchise to anoint him as ready to lead this year?s team on that Super Bowl run through 3 or 4 playoff caliber defenses, and while GB has some history of struggling to contain mobile QBs, DC Dom Capers definitely mixes up his defenses in ways that surprise even veteran and elite QBs . . . Green Bay learned a valuable lesson against Seattle when Aaron Rodgers was sacked eight times in the first half, and Jon Gruden picked up on it before the end of the 3rd quarter; Green Bay came out throwing and throwing some more, and their offensive lineman were always back pedaling and ended up getting beaten on every play, but they came out in the second half and drove the Seattle defenders off the ball with some power running, and low and behold they held the Seattle rush to zero sacks in the second half. With the caveat of the lesson learned in Seattle, and flu or no flu, Green Bay needs to unleash Rodgers in this game, ala the Super Bowl against Pittsburgh, to give them their best chance to advance, and in doing so Rodgers will lead more than a few of his teammates to similar heights in their performances . . . I think SF is in error if they believe they are going to ?get physical? with some "pikers" that can?t play that way, and believe they will be able to shut down the GB receivers with the clutching and grabbing the whining HC Harbaugh unleashed on the replacement refs on opening weekend of the season (let?s just say I?m not mis-remembering on that point) . . . Simply put, unleash Rodgers.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2013 NFL Playoffs YTD: 5-3 (+2.65*)

Seattle(+3)(-131) over Atlanta (1.5*)
- - With Seattle now riding the momentum of overcoming a 14 point deficit, I won't be riding Atlanta as the team primed to dictate the outcome here.

Houston(+10)(-125) over New England (1*)
- - Houston was finishing a three game road trip on their last visit, while last season New England was on a mission against Denver to win their first playoff game since the 2007 season. Today, I see a scrap.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

San Francisco(-2')(-125) over Atlanta (1*)
- - No way can I see Atlanta denying San Francisco.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2013 NFL Playoffs YTD: 5-4 (+1.40*)
NFL Regular Season YTD: 44-28 (+16.41*)
2012 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)
2012-2013 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 13-7 (+5.70*)
Top Plays (included above): 17-7 (+15.18*)

San Francisco(-2')(-125) over Atlanta (1*)
- - No way can I see Atlanta denying San Francisco.

San Francisco(-2')(-125) over Atlanta (1*)
- - I stand by what I posted in this thread before the Packers game in my scouting report on Kaepernick. Green Bay failed time and again in strategy and execution in keeping Kaepernick in the pocket and forcing him to beat them by reading coverages, and instead they let him run hog wild, after which the defense was left guessing and they couldn?t slow down a damn thing in the passing game either (not that Green Bay would have prevailed any way, because unleashing Rodgers was the biggest key, and despite fine protection, Rodgers frankly didn?t play any better than he did when he misfired against the Giants in the same round last year). In any event, I would certainly expect Atlanta to employ a better strategy and execution against Kaepernick, regardless of their level of struggles against mobile quarterbacks . . . My capping this week comes down to liking the 49ers in many championship areas across the board, first in coaching, then in defense, then in situational factors (redemption still to be earned from last year vs. a team that almost put an entire franchise and fan base into meltdown before snatching a victory from the jaws of defeat, although WR Crabtree is a big comfort for the young SF QB, and his troubling legal development this week could strip away the edge he played with in his biggest game ever last week), then in the running game, to let Atlanta carry my cash in a championship cauldron with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line . . . If this game was in San Francisco, I would fully expect SF to slap Atlanta around pretty good. In Atlanta, I think -2' is a fair impost and no way can I see Atlanta denying San Francisco unless Kaepernick plays pretty bad.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Baltimore(+8) over New England (1*)
- -My first thoughts from last weekend had me wondering how much Baltimore has left in the tank after a double overtime donnybrook in Denver after the 86 plays on defense against Indy . . . But going back to the Giants game, the Ravens have really been trending well since the changes along their OL, and Flacco and his weapons have all been stepping up. On defense, Ray Lewis is back AND playing at a high level, and he seems to have infused a high level of accountability among all his teammates that has clearly energized the not so tired Ravens . . . I believe Baltimore has won 7 playoff games in 5 years, most of them on the road, and I don?t think Baltimore was the first or second choice of teams New England wanted to face with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line . . . I thought I wanted New England at -7, but it turns out I wanted Baltimore at +9.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Baltimore(+4') over San Francisco (1*)
- - I doubt if I decide I'd rather be laying 4'.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2013 NFL Playoffs YTD: 7-4 (+3.40*)
NFL Regular Season YTD: 44-28 (+16.41*)
2012 NCAA Regular Season YTD: 50-33 (+11.71*)
2012-2013 NCAA Bowl Season YTD: 13-7 (+5.70*)
Top Plays (included above): 17-7 (+15.18*)
Overall: 114-72 (61.3%) (+37.22*)


Super Bowl XLVII:

Without using any great effort, just here and there trying to get a feel for the game over the last 10 days, 3 items I?ve come across that I feel are the most worth sharing:

(1) The focus of the first item is the play of QB Joe Flacco, but IMO there is more to be gleaned from the article:
http://theredzone.org/BlogDescription/tabid/61/EntryId/32325/Ravens-plan-to-retain-Jim-Caldwell-in-offensive-coordinator-role/Default.aspx

(2) The focus of the second item is on the advantages of the 49ers pistol offense:
http://www.nola.com/superbowl/index.ssf/2013/01/san_francisco_49ers_pistol_for.html

(3) The third item was an ESPN radio discussion about the two Harbaughs and the leadership on their teams, and expanding on some of those ANGLES is where I?m taking my analysis . . . The Ravens have vocal leaders on their team, and a chemistry of strong personalities, it?s hard to argue with that. John Harbaugh has a comfort level with the identity the Ravens have built in their locker room on this journey. Jim Harbaugh is THE leader of the 49ers; the entire team takes their cues from him. If he?s uptight for this contest, there?s a good chance his team is uptight . . . It?s old hat for Baltimore to become road warriors in the post season, and they thrive in the role of underdog. San Francisco has almost no experience away from home for these games, even if it is a corporate crowd at a neutral site, and building from the start of the season, the pressure lies heaviest on the shoulders of the favored 49ers and their 5 for 5 legacy, it?s hard to argue with that . . . This group of Ravens have been fighting longer and harder to get to this Super Bowl than this group of 49ers. The free wheeling Ravens have a lot of momentum off their wins against Denver and New England . . . I think the 49ers have been built like a championship team, and have played like a championship team all season. With two weeks to prepare and get fresh, I think John Harbaugh has a team that can give his brother fits. Baltimore can carry my cash as a live dog . . . For two small props, I like Kaepernick throws a pick(-125), and I think both teams want to establish control in a lot of areas that will help them win in the 4th quarter, so if the teams have some success in that regard, I like the total points at Under47'.

Baltimore(+4') over San Francisco (1*)

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

For the record:

2003 - 2012/2013 All Games (10 seasons): 1005-947 (51.5%) (-26.10*)


2012 NCAA Regular Season: 50-33 (+11.71*)
2012-2013 NCAA Bowl Season: 13-7 (+5.70*)

2011 NCAA Regular Season: 35-48 (-18.79*)
2011-2012 NCAA Bowl Season: 9-12 (-4.77*)

2010 NCAA Regular Season: 49-45 (-3.40*)
2010-2011 NCAA Bowl Season: 14-10 (+4.15*)

2009 NCAA Regular Season: 51-46 (-2.64*)
2009-2010 NCAA Bowl Season: 10-11 (+0.12*)

2008 NCAA Regular Season: 42-52 (-11.95*)
2008-2009 NCAA Bowl Season: 12-9 (+2.25*)

2007 NCAA Regular Season: 27-36 (-13.95*)
2007-2008 NCAA Bowl Season: 6-7 (-2.40*)

2006 NCAA Regular Season: 43-39 (+0.26*)
2006-2007 NCAA Bowl Season: 8-7 (+0.00*)

2005 NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
2005-2006 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)


2012 NFL Regular Season: 44-28 (+16.41*)
2012-2013 NFL Postseason: 8-4 (+4.40*)

2011 NFL Regular Season: 48-48 (-3.58*)
2011-2012 NFL Postseason: 4-7 (-4.05*)

2010 NFL Regular Season: 37-46 (-14.65*)
2010-2011 NFL Postseason: 9-4 (+4.32*)

2009 NFL Regular Season: 57-45 (+8.40*)
2009-2010 NFL Postseason: 7-6 (-0.80*)

2008 NFL Regular Season: 32-25 (+5.80*)
2008-2009 NFL Postseason: 6-5 (+0.55*)

2007 NFL Regular Season: 25-33 (-10.70*)
2007-2008 NFL Postseason: 6-5 (+0.35*)

2006 NFL Regular Season: 19-33 (-16.70*)
2006-2007 NFL Postseason: 7-5 (+1.35*)
2006 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Postseason: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Postseason: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)


2009-2013 Top Plays (a new category) (4 seasons):
(NFL & NCAA) (included above): 42-35 (+3.27*)
(Note: This is the one record that has not been precisely tracked.)


Inside the numbers . . .

- - I'm sure I've made a few errors in my record keeping over 10 years, but the errors would have "washed themselves out", so I'm confident in saying it would be a very short list of people that have maintained a record of their posted football wagers that is as reliable as mine.

- - Generally $40 per unit, so that's a loss of about $1040./10 seasons = $100. per year. My little parlays, and $2-$10 "action" bets, rarer and rare, and not posted, probably take the 10 year total to closer to -$1250. On the other hand, in Madjack's contests I won $500 in the Monday night contest, about $400 and $200 in two of the NCAA contests, and I've received several hundred dollars of free plays and deposit bonuses at the offshores.

- - Like I tell my family and friends, I tread water in football, but I win at golf.

- - The 2007 season (-26.70*) and 2011 season (-31.19*) were disasters.

- - Mad props to the excellent crew of cappers here at Jack's place that I generally lean on seven days a week in arriving at my decisions.

:toast:


******************************

Don't believe everything you think.

The Journey is the Reward.

******************************

GL