winning at baseball $$$$

[RAYMOND]

baseball is better . number one you do not have to win by point spreads, your team have to win thats all.
run lines are a sucker bet , very hard to win do not play them.

handicapping baseball starts with the pitcher , i like to look at alot angles first of all , the pitchers last three start his era and his average hits and walks ratios . thats average hits and walks.
the pitcher career vs the team. how the pitcher pitches at home or the road or day or at night.

pitchers pitch count is very important , for fatigue factors.

bullpens i look at the bullpen era and a ahw and the strength

hitters i look at the teams power rating. how teams hit
lefties and righties. some teams can not hit lhp
example: royals vs lefties last year on the road at nite avg 3 runs per games and were 5-17 vs lhp

seattle vs righties -82-34 vs rhp last year avg almost 6 runs per games. if you betted seattle every time they face a rhp you would have been up over $3500 for the year at a $100 bet on each game.

hot and cold streaks , i will ride a hot team sometimes until they lose a game . or a cold team until they win a game.

some teams play very well on the road at nite .
example oakland avg 6 runs on the road at nite vs rhp and make a nice profit in that set up.

tb was 2-13 vs lhp on the road at nite and avg 3.0 runs per games.

sd vs rhp on the road day games avg 7 runs per game.

sf giants vs lefties at home at nite 10-2 last year and for a $100
bet . you would have been up over $900 in that roll.

bottom line you need to known the game inside and out.
you should do your homework and known the facts and know the numbers, it all a number game. do not bet blind

watch and win i will clean house once again this year. i wish that
baseball was all year long$$$$

 

[taoist]

...thanks for taking the time to post some good info for those of us who don't play bases all that often. I'll be watching you guys in here this summer...and will probably jump on your coat-tails from time to time.... Keep up the hard work.

 

[FUZZY NUTZ]

raymond, great information!! thanks for taking the time to share your insight. i can't wait till the season starts and look forward to winning some $$ with you!

 

[wormdog]

kick some ass raymond the wormdog will be watching you! you confident bastard!

 

[rrc]

Ray, Do you use flat betting like Fletcher? Thanks for all you hard work.

 

[fletcher]

ray covered most everything i see it the same but with add things that i look for from an ex-player and coach that would be to hard to explain and half the people wouldnot understand what the hell i am talking about,like take away, wrapping,and flat roation,there are a few that would but not going to give a crash course in baseball 101,it would really mess you up.

i see things and know it will effect a player and team at times that most people don't pick up or understand wondo would he know what i am talking about.

and this might effect the team or player in the next game or weeks to come. so i follow body movement and also still have lots of friends so i hear locker roomtalk at times also.and no not about fixing games,just talks with friends and ex-players and good info comes from that. just have to listen and they donot give me info we talk as friends and get the night life scoop and dirt off the field. in friendley talks when i get to talk to my friends,this helps out also with guys that get brought up to pitch from aa or aaa, i know what to expect because i still am in the circle of friends that scout and coach in the minors,and i see guys from jucos for them and high school kids,info is always good to have.

 

[goldcupsports]

"run lines are a sucker bet "

Ray,

run lines are no more of a sucker bet than parlays in baseball. They are good for scalping but I wouldn't go as far as saying they are a sucker bet.

 

[saint]

Raymand

I hope this question doesn't offend you, but how many units do you think you average up in a baseball year with your system?

 

[Leggyguy]

Well, it isn't a system, as far as I can see. He just simply handicaps the games. The things he lists are the things he gives most importance to when capping.

 

[RAYMOND]

chris you don't have a clue, mind your own bussiness.
go ahead and play run lines, let see how far you go

 

[goldcupsports]

Thanks for the kind response ray. All I am saying is that runlines are not any harder than parlays that's all. I thought this was a public forum not RAY's forum. Sorry Ray I will never post in your thread again GEEZ!!

 

[RAYMOND]

first of all, i did not talk about parlays in my write up.
what does that have to do with run lines
:shrug:

 

[Felonious Monk]

Ray,

I've been anticipating baseball for a while now and I've always done well in the past.

Having you in the driver's seat will even help me out more. Fletcher too!

Let's kick some ass this year guys! :toast:

 

[Nick Douglas]

Thanks for the writeup, Ray. I wrote up something on my Free Picks page, maybe some of you guys might want to check it out.

I would add that everyone should really consider getting the MLB extra innings package so that you can watch as many ballgames as you can. You can get a great feel for teams, hitters and pitchers many times. Sometimes you may see a pitcher whose gas is a few miles an hour too slow and take advantage. For instance in games where Livan Hernandez throws an 88 mph heater, he was much more effective than games where is stayed around 84 mph. This is even more true for closers. Anyone who saw Matt Anderson throwing 101 mph gas in August and September knew that nobody was gonna hit him so the Tigers were an 8 inning team, giving some good dog value in meaningless games.

As far as run lines go, I personally feel that runlines are generally a sucker bet giving at -1 1/2. You are usually betting down a big fave, say PK -180 to -1 1/2, -110 or something like that. The problem is that you are often betting a great pitcher and teams get up to face great pitchers and great pitchers often find a way to squeak out 1 run wins. In my personal opinion, the -1 1/2 bet is better if you are taking an all around better team to pound a bad team with an average pitcher ont he mound for both teams. I am no run line expert, though. That is just my opinion.

The other thing about run lines is you are being greedy by betting them. If you are a $100 bettor, instead of trying to win $100 by laying $100 on a -1 1/2 line, just bet the PK and take a $60 or $65 profit instead off your $100 wager.

Parlays are not something that I know much about. I really only bet them if I have two big dogs that I really feel good about. I will throw $100 on a parlay and try to get a big hit. I usually do this maybe 10 times a year, tops. Most people put chalk bets in parlays. Ray does that a lot and he does well with it, but in my personal experience I have found that to be a tough way to make money long term. Like I said, I am not knocking the way Ray plays it, I am just saying that style is not for me. I am a dog player so I just stick to straight underdog bets.

 

[wondo]

My personal opinion... FWIW. I bet some sports but not baseball, so make what you want of this......

Don't know if it was in this thread or if it was somewhere else, but at some point it was mentionned that going against Pedro Martinez was a sure-fire winner in the long haul.

Could be true in the past, but look for an utter domination by Pedro this year. He has re-affirmed (perhaps affirmed for the first time) his desire to be the best pitcher in the game and more than a blip on the baseball history radar. For once he has, by all accounts I've heard, adhered to a strong offseason regimen of training.

In addition to gaining in his individual strength and attributes, it has also endeared him to a more personable Red Sox clubhouse. A couple potentially bad apples are dealt to other teams and what's left in Beantown is a happy Pedro and a happy supporting cast.

My understanding, which very well could be wrong and I do not wish to argue my point here --- so take it or leave it --- is that Pedro's teammates did not do their best to support him offensively. I think that this will change this year. One of the best pitchers W/L-wise was Christy Mathewson, and besides Matty's talents, he also had any of his teammates break their neck for him each and everytime he was on the mound. They wanted him to win and wanted to play behind him. Look for that same atmosphere each time that Pedro is on the bump this year.

He's worked hard, his teammates are appreciative, and the combination will make him the best pitcher in the game, in my opinion. Before this year he would have come and gone as a blip on the radar, so to speak, but he will win this year and solidify himself as not only a great talent, but a great player. As the equation goes: tools + performance = player; and I think this year he will put it together, with the help of his teammates.

From a betting standpoint, I can't put a number on when it loses value going against him, but if I were in your shoes I'd pass rather than go against.

 

[Shack]

Pedro

Pedro

Wondo,

I agree with your comments, I just want to add that based on what I'm reading in the local papers, it appears that the Red Sox are worried about Pedro's shoulder. Yes, he did more in the off season to be ready for this year, and that will only help, but, the stories in the papers hint that Pedro will likely be on a stricter pitch count than in years past. My point is that we might not get many seven, eight or nine inning efforts from Pedro this year.

Shack

 

[Stewy]

The reason going against Pedro is a good idea

The reason going against Pedro is a good idea

You are getting +200 knowing that the unpredictable Boston Bullpen will be trying to close out the game. Plus Boston never gives Pedro any run support. I wouldn't always go against him but there are games when you should.

 

[Valuist]

I feel run lines are a sucker bet IF you bet predominantly favorites. I avoided them until last year and started playing dogs on the run line and did well. I didn't bet them every day but I feel there are several circumstances where getting the run and a half is very beneficial.

First, many baseball games are decided by one run. Secondly, the road team will always get its 9 at-bats. Third, since the moneylines are based primarily on the starting pitchers, teams with poor hitting can be great go againsts when they are laying 1.5 runs. I look at the Cubs last year, who had a great record in 1 run games. They had one great hitter in their lineup before getting McGriff. They won a lot of 3-2 and 4-3 games, esp at home when the wind was blowing in and runs are at a premium. My rules of thumb? If you play run lines, you use them primarily for road dogs who are facing weak hitting favored home teams.

 

[infinii]

"hot and cold streaks , i will ride a hot team sometimes until they lose a game . or a cold team until they win a game."

Ray,

I've always had a question about betting into streaks. After how many wins/losses do you consider the streak to start? I'm always afraid that after I notice a team winning or losing 4 or 5, that it's too late. I can't begin to count the number of times I watched the Mariners win 6 straight and I'd tell myself that they were due for a loss so I'd lay off only to watch them win a few more. You know the saying, lots of coat-tailers lose because they tail someone who's gone 12-2. Well averages say that that person is going to lose soon so the guy coat-tailing is essentially too late.

Also, what is "flat wagering"?

thanks, all this advice is really appreciated. Most people simply post plays during the season and I'm not one to demand an explanation as to how you come to your conclusions but seeing as the season hasn't started and we have some time, this tutelage is helpful.

 

[RAYMOND]

hot and cold streaks, sometime you just know , you can see the writing on the wall so to speak