I think these are different teams than in years past.
The last 3-4 years Indiana was rebuilding their program under Crean after they were hit with the sanctions. Thus being way less talented than many teams in the league.
Wisconsin also just isn't as talented as they were then either. They lack a consistent scorer and go to guy. Alando Tucker and Jordan Taylor (might be missing one) were those guys and could take over games and put the team on their back.
I haven't watched as much of this team as usual but they didn't impress me early on.
Bo Ryan has a knack for coming up and surprising people when they are doubting his team though and they seem to always finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten, somehow someway. This year though I just can't see it with Michigan, Indy, Minny and Mich State being contenders.
Indiana is at home and I think the number is pretty close to right. They're a great home team and I think they're way more athletic than UW. I will say if Wisconsin finds a way to make some 3s in the first half and keep it close at halftime I can see them covering, but if they are down early they have a tough time coming back, especially in that environment.
Good luck with your play! I will be rooting for Bucky!