Atlanta team total over 25 (1.90)
Atlanta are in a very strong trend spot (14-3 ats) that suggests they will score big and win. (Av. 28.4 ppg).
Also the physical nature of this game has the number one rushing team, av. over 200 y/g @ 5.8 per carry, going against the NFL's 4th worst rushing D (Cleveland allow 4.8 y/c).
I think taking the Falcons team score is the best way to go, as their secondary is in a TERRIBLE state, down to the bare minimum, and as such they have allowed 27+ in each of their last 4 games.
I'm not sure if Cleveland can really take advantage of that to force the game 'over', and I also can't trust the Falcons to cover a big spread with such a weak D.
NO @ Pits under 45.5
League: 5-15 under (Av. total 42.9...av. score 35.7) home 3+ fav, off an ats loss as home 3- fav, if total is > 40. [Pits]
2-9 under (Av. total 44.3...av. score 35.7) if total > 42.5
0-6 under (Av. total 45.4...av. score 31.2!!) if total >44.5
League: 2-10 under (Av. total 40.2...av. score 31.0) off a 14+ ats win as away 3- fav. [NO]
Two very strong under trends here...actually it was one of those totals which even looks way too high.
I pointed out beofre the Baltimore game how easy NO's schedule had been... (Balt was the first team they had played in the top 15 for total D!)...now Pittsburgh is the first team they have played in the top 12 for pass D. (Steelers 9th, and 8th total D).
If we discount two scoring explosions by Pits v. KC and Atl, they have scored just 20, 13, 13, 20 & 0 in their last 7....and NO have the 5th best pass D.
There is a strong possibility of heavy rain aswell, which should keep scoring down.
Detroit -6
League: 36-68-3 (Av. loss 11.3) away 3+ dog, off a 10+ ats win as home 3+ dog. [SF]
5-15-1 (Av. loss 15.4) if opp is off a 10+ ats win.
3-10 (Av. loss 16.1) if opp is off a 14+ ats win.
0-4 (Av. loss 23.5!!) if opp is off a 21+ ats win.
SO, it's pretty clear that SF are being over-rated after their upset win last week, but Detroit are playing very well right nw, and will be a FAR different proposition than a bumbling Minnesota team.
SF have only played 3 games on the road so far, and lost all 3 by an av. of 26.3!!
They allow over 49% 3rd down conversions and are 4th last in total D.
Detroit score big here and really should win by more than a TD.
Carolina v. TB under 37
Was all set to take this at 36.5, and can't really belive it went to 37 so easily....people taking too much notice of the first meeting I guess.
But, Carolina are a totally different team at home...esp. as home favs inside the Div, where they are now 0-10 under since 2000!
It's a high total for TB anyway. They are 2nd last in scoring @ just 12.8 ppg, and have the 2nd worst total O....They are also 2-10 under in their last 12 road games.
Neither defense is all that special, but both teams (esp. Carolina) need this game, so should be another very conservative game at home for the Panthers.
I also show a pretty good 'over' in Philli, but weather might scare me off from playing...also Dallas/Zona over, but Glenn is doubtful, and so that might hurt Dallas' production.
Good Luck all :coo:
Atlanta are in a very strong trend spot (14-3 ats) that suggests they will score big and win. (Av. 28.4 ppg).
Also the physical nature of this game has the number one rushing team, av. over 200 y/g @ 5.8 per carry, going against the NFL's 4th worst rushing D (Cleveland allow 4.8 y/c).
I think taking the Falcons team score is the best way to go, as their secondary is in a TERRIBLE state, down to the bare minimum, and as such they have allowed 27+ in each of their last 4 games.
I'm not sure if Cleveland can really take advantage of that to force the game 'over', and I also can't trust the Falcons to cover a big spread with such a weak D.
NO @ Pits under 45.5
League: 5-15 under (Av. total 42.9...av. score 35.7) home 3+ fav, off an ats loss as home 3- fav, if total is > 40. [Pits]
2-9 under (Av. total 44.3...av. score 35.7) if total > 42.5
0-6 under (Av. total 45.4...av. score 31.2!!) if total >44.5
League: 2-10 under (Av. total 40.2...av. score 31.0) off a 14+ ats win as away 3- fav. [NO]
Two very strong under trends here...actually it was one of those totals which even looks way too high.
I pointed out beofre the Baltimore game how easy NO's schedule had been... (Balt was the first team they had played in the top 15 for total D!)...now Pittsburgh is the first team they have played in the top 12 for pass D. (Steelers 9th, and 8th total D).
If we discount two scoring explosions by Pits v. KC and Atl, they have scored just 20, 13, 13, 20 & 0 in their last 7....and NO have the 5th best pass D.
There is a strong possibility of heavy rain aswell, which should keep scoring down.
Detroit -6
League: 36-68-3 (Av. loss 11.3) away 3+ dog, off a 10+ ats win as home 3+ dog. [SF]
5-15-1 (Av. loss 15.4) if opp is off a 10+ ats win.
3-10 (Av. loss 16.1) if opp is off a 14+ ats win.
0-4 (Av. loss 23.5!!) if opp is off a 21+ ats win.
SO, it's pretty clear that SF are being over-rated after their upset win last week, but Detroit are playing very well right nw, and will be a FAR different proposition than a bumbling Minnesota team.
SF have only played 3 games on the road so far, and lost all 3 by an av. of 26.3!!
They allow over 49% 3rd down conversions and are 4th last in total D.
Detroit score big here and really should win by more than a TD.
Carolina v. TB under 37
Was all set to take this at 36.5, and can't really belive it went to 37 so easily....people taking too much notice of the first meeting I guess.
But, Carolina are a totally different team at home...esp. as home favs inside the Div, where they are now 0-10 under since 2000!
It's a high total for TB anyway. They are 2nd last in scoring @ just 12.8 ppg, and have the 2nd worst total O....They are also 2-10 under in their last 12 road games.
Neither defense is all that special, but both teams (esp. Carolina) need this game, so should be another very conservative game at home for the Panthers.
I also show a pretty good 'over' in Philli, but weather might scare me off from playing...also Dallas/Zona over, but Glenn is doubtful, and so that might hurt Dallas' production.
Good Luck all :coo:
