..of 50/50 action....
KC @ Dallas under 43.5
League: 4-11 under (Av. total 39.3...av. score 36.0) any away dog, off a SU win as home 3- dog, if opp was last a 3- dog. [KC]
1-5 under (Av. totao 43.4...av. score 37.7) if total 40+
League: 9-20-1 under (Av. total 39.2...av. score 35.4) any home fav, off an ats loss as away 3- dog, if opp is off any ats win as a dog. [KC] (0-2 under this season)
[0-8 under (Av. total 45.1...av. score 38.2) if total 40+]
2-10 under (Av. total 38.3...av. score 32.1!) if opp won ats as a home dog.
1-10 under (0-11 under this no...av. total 38.5...av. score 31.3!) if team is 7- fav.
Dallas play strong D at home, allowing just 13.5 ppg...Their pass D is second only to Chicago, allowing just 5.77 ypp.
KC will know that they will have more success moving the ball on the ground, which has been Dallas' weakness, but it will make for some long, time-consuming drives.
Parcell's has said during the week that the best way to keep KC from scoring is to keep their offense off the field, so expect plenty of long, slow drives from Dallas as well.
also.....IRVING, Texas (AP) - Bill Parcells put the Dallas Cowboys through a practice that was structured differently from all the other midweek workouts they've had this season....."I wanted to try to do a little something that I thought would help us in dealing with Kansas City's offense and defense," he said Wednesday. "....
....translated means; "I want to stop them running, and be able to run ourselves".
Carolina -5.5 & under 37.5
League: 8-2 (Av. win 11.6) home 7- fav, off a 14+ ats win as home 3- fav, if opp is off any ats win. [Caro] (2-0 this season)
League: 1-11-1 (Av. loss 8.7) any away dog, off any ats win as away fav, if opp was last a 3- fav. [TB]
also 3-10 under (Av. total 39.5...av. score 36.5) ...team av. score 13.9.
5 of 6 TB road games have been under this number, @ 31.8 ppg, but even more than that the thing that stands out is that when Tampa don't (can't!) run the ball, the don't score.
In their 4 losses so far, they have rushed for;
84 yards @ Jets, lost 12-14
43 yards @ SF, lost 10-15
108 yards v. Chic, lost 10-13
& home to Carolina, they ran for just 44 yards and scored 14.
It's no coincidence that Carolina have the 3rd best run D, allowing just 3.5 ypc...and, in the last 5 meetings, Carolina are 5-0, allowing TB to run for just 44, 46, 62, 89 and 60 yards.
Seattle -16
Big spread, but the gap between these two teams is huge...in fact, I think the spread is lower than it should be because of the last meeting @ SF, which Seattle won by just 2 points....But, SF scored the last 13 points, and more importantly, Alex Smith wasn't @ QB!
On the road this season, SF has lost by 39, 17, 35, 8 & 11.
Smith has QB'ed in 5 games this season, they have lost by 39, 17, 25, 35 and 7 last week v. Arizona.
He has 0 TD's, 8 INT's for a QB rating of 28.1!
The SF D give up 35 ppg on the road, and their pass D is the worst in the NFL, allowing 8 ypp.
Seattle won 34-0 at home last season as -10 favs.
Playing for home field throughout the play-offs, Seattle will come out firing and put this one away early.
Baltimore @ Denver over 40
Basing this on the same theory as the game @ Cinci 2 weeks ago...Baltimore D is surprisingly bad on the road, allowing 27ppg...30.4 if we take out the fact that Chicago scored just 10.
Denver av. 29.2 ppg at home....Again, the 14.5 is a large spread to cover, so I'll go with the fact that Balt should only have to score 14+ to send this game over.
As bad as they've been offensively, they have scored 14+ in 6 of their last 9...the 3 they didn't were against 2 of the best D lines in the game (Chic and Jax who are no's 4 and 5 for sacks...Denv just 27th), and Bollers first game back off a long lay-off.
40 should be well within reach here.
Washington @ Arizona under 40.5
High total for Washington, as only 3 of their games have gone over this number all season. Their only deep threat, Santana Moss is questionable after leaving practice on Wednesday with a strained hamstring.
Either way, I think they will be happy to pound the ball at a Cards D allowing 4.3 ypr, so plenty of running and short passing.
Arizona will have trouble moving the ball on this strong Washington D. They have no running game, and the Washington pass D is one of the best in the business.
Add that Arizona lost their Centre for this game, making an already shaky O-line worse still.
They struggle big-time in the red-zone, scoring just 19 TD's to 35 FG's, which always helps the under.
Good Luck all
KC @ Dallas under 43.5
League: 4-11 under (Av. total 39.3...av. score 36.0) any away dog, off a SU win as home 3- dog, if opp was last a 3- dog. [KC]
1-5 under (Av. totao 43.4...av. score 37.7) if total 40+
League: 9-20-1 under (Av. total 39.2...av. score 35.4) any home fav, off an ats loss as away 3- dog, if opp is off any ats win as a dog. [KC] (0-2 under this season)
[0-8 under (Av. total 45.1...av. score 38.2) if total 40+]
2-10 under (Av. total 38.3...av. score 32.1!) if opp won ats as a home dog.
1-10 under (0-11 under this no...av. total 38.5...av. score 31.3!) if team is 7- fav.
Dallas play strong D at home, allowing just 13.5 ppg...Their pass D is second only to Chicago, allowing just 5.77 ypp.
KC will know that they will have more success moving the ball on the ground, which has been Dallas' weakness, but it will make for some long, time-consuming drives.
Parcell's has said during the week that the best way to keep KC from scoring is to keep their offense off the field, so expect plenty of long, slow drives from Dallas as well.
also.....IRVING, Texas (AP) - Bill Parcells put the Dallas Cowboys through a practice that was structured differently from all the other midweek workouts they've had this season....."I wanted to try to do a little something that I thought would help us in dealing with Kansas City's offense and defense," he said Wednesday. "....
....translated means; "I want to stop them running, and be able to run ourselves".
Carolina -5.5 & under 37.5
League: 8-2 (Av. win 11.6) home 7- fav, off a 14+ ats win as home 3- fav, if opp is off any ats win. [Caro] (2-0 this season)
League: 1-11-1 (Av. loss 8.7) any away dog, off any ats win as away fav, if opp was last a 3- fav. [TB]
also 3-10 under (Av. total 39.5...av. score 36.5) ...team av. score 13.9.
5 of 6 TB road games have been under this number, @ 31.8 ppg, but even more than that the thing that stands out is that when Tampa don't (can't!) run the ball, the don't score.
In their 4 losses so far, they have rushed for;
84 yards @ Jets, lost 12-14
43 yards @ SF, lost 10-15
108 yards v. Chic, lost 10-13
& home to Carolina, they ran for just 44 yards and scored 14.
It's no coincidence that Carolina have the 3rd best run D, allowing just 3.5 ypc...and, in the last 5 meetings, Carolina are 5-0, allowing TB to run for just 44, 46, 62, 89 and 60 yards.
Seattle -16
Big spread, but the gap between these two teams is huge...in fact, I think the spread is lower than it should be because of the last meeting @ SF, which Seattle won by just 2 points....But, SF scored the last 13 points, and more importantly, Alex Smith wasn't @ QB!
On the road this season, SF has lost by 39, 17, 35, 8 & 11.
Smith has QB'ed in 5 games this season, they have lost by 39, 17, 25, 35 and 7 last week v. Arizona.
He has 0 TD's, 8 INT's for a QB rating of 28.1!
The SF D give up 35 ppg on the road, and their pass D is the worst in the NFL, allowing 8 ypp.
Seattle won 34-0 at home last season as -10 favs.
Playing for home field throughout the play-offs, Seattle will come out firing and put this one away early.
Baltimore @ Denver over 40
Basing this on the same theory as the game @ Cinci 2 weeks ago...Baltimore D is surprisingly bad on the road, allowing 27ppg...30.4 if we take out the fact that Chicago scored just 10.
Denver av. 29.2 ppg at home....Again, the 14.5 is a large spread to cover, so I'll go with the fact that Balt should only have to score 14+ to send this game over.
As bad as they've been offensively, they have scored 14+ in 6 of their last 9...the 3 they didn't were against 2 of the best D lines in the game (Chic and Jax who are no's 4 and 5 for sacks...Denv just 27th), and Bollers first game back off a long lay-off.
40 should be well within reach here.
Washington @ Arizona under 40.5
High total for Washington, as only 3 of their games have gone over this number all season. Their only deep threat, Santana Moss is questionable after leaving practice on Wednesday with a strained hamstring.
Either way, I think they will be happy to pound the ball at a Cards D allowing 4.3 ypr, so plenty of running and short passing.
Arizona will have trouble moving the ball on this strong Washington D. They have no running game, and the Washington pass D is one of the best in the business.
Add that Arizona lost their Centre for this game, making an already shaky O-line worse still.
They struggle big-time in the red-zone, scoring just 19 TD's to 35 FG's, which always helps the under.
Good Luck all
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