Wk. 15.

[MrChristo]

53-54-1 (-5.26)

NYG @ Cinci over 43

Both defenses giving up some big plays and plenty of points. In fact in the last 4 weeks, Cinci have allowed 35.5 , and the Giants 32 ppg.
After a very shaky start, Eli looked a lot better last week, after working with the coaching staff to call more plays that he was comfortable with.
Barber should have a big day and this will help Manning out all the more.

Both Palmer and Kitna are capable of putting up points for the Bengals.

Like the over at a nice number.

 

[MrChristo]

Green Bay @ Minni over 55.5

High total, but too low.

2 high powered offenses?2 terrible defenses playing for their play-off lives should amount to a lot of points here.
Both around the 50% mark for 3rd down conversions. Both gain (and allow) more than 4.6 y/carry. GB gain 7.11 y/pass, Minni 8.18!
Also shouldn?t be too many FG?s?both teams over 2-1 ratio of TD?s to FG?s.

The last meeting in Green Bay went 34-31, with the Min offense not at full strength with Moss out!
Now back indoors where Green Bay have gone ?over? 9 of their last 10 on turf, (and 12 of last 16 ?over? v. inside div.) this one should be over pretty comfortably.

Oakland @ Kansas City over 59

Even higher total, but still not high enough!!
Last 3 weeks KC have scored 31, 34, 49 and 45..And now face Oakland allowing 7.88y/pass?They should have another pretty huge day.
In fact, the Oakland defense has only allowed less than 20 points ONCE this season, and they allow an av. of 30 on the road!
Oakland have given up trying to run the ball, throwing nearly at a 2-1 ratio and they should also have some success against the NFL?s worst pass D, giving 8.35 y/pass!!

These ?meaningless? games always tend to be shoot-outs (see Tenn @ Oak last week!), and 2 decent passing teams with the 2 worst pass D?s should have some scoring fun on Christmas Day!

KC Trends: 10-2 over in December last 3 years, and 12-4 over inside div.


Houston @ Jax under 38

Only 2 Jacksonville home games this season have gone over this number?v. Indi and the OT v. Detroit. Even the game v. KC ended 22-16.
Houston average less than 17 ppg on the road, and only scored 24 @ Chicago last week with the help of 5 turnovers.
Jacksonville only allowing 14 ppg at home, and will still be playing hard with a play-off berth at stake.
The first meeting this season was 20-6 @ Houston, with an INT returned for a TD late.

Nice number here for the under.

 

[Kdogg21]

nice write ups. good luck this week Christo

 

[MrChristo]

Pittsburgh -5 (1.99 @ Pinnacle)

League: 16-4 (av. win 15.8!!) home 3+ fav off any ats loss as away 10+ fav. [Pits] (1-0 season...Indi v. Balt last week!)
9-1 (Av. win 17.1!!) if opp off any ats loss.

League: 5-10 (4-11 this no...Av. loss 7.6) away 3+ dog off 3- ats loss as away 7+ dog. [Balt] (0-1 this season...Mia @ Buff)
1-5 (0-6 this no...Av. loss 17.0!!) if total <37


Baltimore don?t score enough points on the road to push the Steelers. They have only topped 20 in regulation once, and av. 12.3 ppg! (And scoring only 10 v. a poor Indi D is not a good sign!)

Pittsburgh D will be fired up after getting torched last week?And they still have plenty to play for, especially after NE?s defeat on Monday.

All stats are similar except passing?Pits av. 7.63 y/pass to Baltimore?s 4.91 (better only than Chicago)

Pittsburgh won this meeting @ home last year 34-15?passing for 260 yards and 3 TD?s, to 151.

The Steelers come out with something to prove in this game and get it done by a TD or more.


Washington -2


League: 11-5 (this no...Av. win 3.7) away 3- fav off 10+ SU win as away 7- fav. [Wash]
4-1-1 (5-1 this no...Av. win 8.7) if opp off any ats win.

League: 6-15 (Av. loss 4.2) home 3- dog off ats win but SU loss as away 10+ dog. [Dallas]
2-9 (Av. loss 5.0) if opp off any ats win.


Washington dominated the first meeting this season, despite losing the game 18-21, and despite having Brunell as QB!

21 FD?s to 14 and over 100 more total yards.

Now Tony Romo is likely to get significant playing time...He will face a very stiff Washington D, allowing only 3.1 y/rush, 5.76 y/pass and 16 ppg.

Dallas defense allows 4.2 y/rush and 7.24 y/pass, so Portis should be able to have a decent game and keep the pressure off Ramsey.

 

[bombercoops]

Like the calls christo. All the best this week mate!
BTW, can't wait to see what eade does with the doggies this season!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Good luck this week mate and have a great X-mas!!

...you to Bomber (will call you when i get up to QLD in January)

:thumb:

 

[bombercoops]

Pawa, where have you been mate?? That xmas shopping and work must be keeping you busy in the 'off season'. Have a good xmas also and I look forward to a few beers in jan!

 

[baby johnson]

thanks mc, happy holiday

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys. :thumb:

Hope we all have a happy and safe Christmas.

Who needs Queensland, PAWA??...It's about 30 dg's and humid as hell here atm!!

Absolutely perfect beer drinkin' weather

 

[bombercoops]

That XXXX is good stuff christo isn't it! :142lmao: Be honest, you know you love it about as much as the redskins play this week!

 

[MrChristo]

I love it as much as I love the GB/Minni over, bomber! (I can say that now it's over )

Still got nothin' on the old Boags Premo's...But as a 'budget' beer goes....:drinky:

Having a decent day actually....(Speaking of Q'land!)...found a nice 750ml square bottle under the tree this morning! :clap: :tongue

 

[bombercoops]

The square bottle was that of...Bundy Rum I'm guessing! Wish they sold that over here. Oh well, 5 days till I'm home so I guess I can hang off! Nice hit on the GB/Minn over christo.

 

[trolln4walii]

Nice research on your games MrC. Paid off today on your GB total. Congrats. With you on the Steelers. GL on the rest of your picks . Have a Merry Christmas

 

[MrChristo]

Buffalo @ San Fran under 44

Got a nice number on this one...See it's down to 41.5 @ places.

Rain and high winds forecast....San Fran should struggle to score anyway.
Hopefully the Bills don't get too excited themselves!

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on the plays Mr. C!


toy

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

GL with the totals MrC. GO PITT

 

[RexBudler]

gl to you today