...well, at least I can't go .55 playing 5 games!...
San Diego ML (3.89)
This is the best, most balanced team that Indi has faced all season by a long way.
Indi haved played just 3 teams in the top 15 for total offense...Cinci scored 37, NE scored 21, St. L scored 28 (were up 17-0 before losing Bulger).
SD are 8th, and have the running game to keep Manning off the field, and also the abilty to pass downfield for big plays. (SD are 3rd for scoring...Cinci are 4th)
The thing that seperates SD from the other teams here is their ability to play defense as well. They are no. 1 at stopping the run, which will force Manning to throw the ball more than he has had to so far, and will make it tough for Indi to convert 3rd downs to keep possession.
Indi won this meeting last year 34-31 @ home as -7 favs...but...SD were 15 points up in the last quarter, before Indi got a TD from a kick-off return, and then scored a TD and 2 pt coversion with 56 seconds left to tie the game...they won in OT.
With only 3 games left SD really need a win here to stay in the play-off race...I really do believe they are the better team in this game, and the price is huge. (Although predictable enough!)
TB @ NE under 36
As mentioned last week, just 2 of Tampa's road games have been higher than this...both have been indoors....their games av. 31.6 away.
NE's defensive worries have been well documented this season, but throughout their run D has held firm, allowing just 3.7 ypc.
Again, as mentioned last week, Tampa have real problems scoring when their run game doesn't get going.
Game time temp will be below freezing, so expecting a tough, low-scoring game between two tough defenses.
Jets @ Miami under 35.5
Continuing to ride the Jets road under train! The total is inflated by the Jets scoring 26 last week...but a) it was at home, b) against a crappy defense.
Again, in 4 games on the road Bollinger has put up 3, 14 (v. Atl who have a terrible run D), 3, 0 & 3.
Because of his struggles on the road, the team relies on a solid running game, but Miami allow just 3.7 ypr and should be able to hold the Jets in check.
The first meeting this season @ NYJ was 17-7 (with Pennington) and last years meeting @ Miami was 9-17.
No reason to suspect any fireworks here either.
Chicago -3 (1.83)
Atlanta just can't stop teams running...they allow 4.7 ypr...and that's what Chicago do best, run the ball and play very tough D.
The Bears will run the ball down Atlanta's throats all day, and keep the run-oriented Falcon offense quiet...they allow just 8 ppg at home so far...they will have enough success running and making plays when they have to to win this one comfortably.
Cleveland @ Oakland under 40.5
High total for a Cleveland game, as only 3 of their games have gone over this number all season.
For some reason the Oakland offense continues to get over-rated each week...they've scored 21+ in 3 games, KC, Tenn and Buff who are all in the bottom 8 in the NFL for y/play allowed. Cleveland is 13th.
Cleveland have also allowed less TD's than FG's this season.
Cleveland don't really have an explosive offense to take advanatge of Oakland's weak D, so expecting another relatively low scoring Browns game.
Good Luck all
San Diego ML (3.89)
This is the best, most balanced team that Indi has faced all season by a long way.
Indi haved played just 3 teams in the top 15 for total offense...Cinci scored 37, NE scored 21, St. L scored 28 (were up 17-0 before losing Bulger).
SD are 8th, and have the running game to keep Manning off the field, and also the abilty to pass downfield for big plays. (SD are 3rd for scoring...Cinci are 4th)
The thing that seperates SD from the other teams here is their ability to play defense as well. They are no. 1 at stopping the run, which will force Manning to throw the ball more than he has had to so far, and will make it tough for Indi to convert 3rd downs to keep possession.
Indi won this meeting last year 34-31 @ home as -7 favs...but...SD were 15 points up in the last quarter, before Indi got a TD from a kick-off return, and then scored a TD and 2 pt coversion with 56 seconds left to tie the game...they won in OT.
With only 3 games left SD really need a win here to stay in the play-off race...I really do believe they are the better team in this game, and the price is huge. (Although predictable enough!)
TB @ NE under 36
As mentioned last week, just 2 of Tampa's road games have been higher than this...both have been indoors....their games av. 31.6 away.
NE's defensive worries have been well documented this season, but throughout their run D has held firm, allowing just 3.7 ypc.
Again, as mentioned last week, Tampa have real problems scoring when their run game doesn't get going.
Game time temp will be below freezing, so expecting a tough, low-scoring game between two tough defenses.
Jets @ Miami under 35.5
Continuing to ride the Jets road under train! The total is inflated by the Jets scoring 26 last week...but a) it was at home, b) against a crappy defense.
Again, in 4 games on the road Bollinger has put up 3, 14 (v. Atl who have a terrible run D), 3, 0 & 3.
Because of his struggles on the road, the team relies on a solid running game, but Miami allow just 3.7 ypr and should be able to hold the Jets in check.
The first meeting this season @ NYJ was 17-7 (with Pennington) and last years meeting @ Miami was 9-17.
No reason to suspect any fireworks here either.
Chicago -3 (1.83)
Atlanta just can't stop teams running...they allow 4.7 ypr...and that's what Chicago do best, run the ball and play very tough D.
The Bears will run the ball down Atlanta's throats all day, and keep the run-oriented Falcon offense quiet...they allow just 8 ppg at home so far...they will have enough success running and making plays when they have to to win this one comfortably.
Cleveland @ Oakland under 40.5
High total for a Cleveland game, as only 3 of their games have gone over this number all season.
For some reason the Oakland offense continues to get over-rated each week...they've scored 21+ in 3 games, KC, Tenn and Buff who are all in the bottom 8 in the NFL for y/play allowed. Cleveland is 13th.
Cleveland have also allowed less TD's than FG's this season.
Cleveland don't really have an explosive offense to take advanatge of Oakland's weak D, so expecting another relatively low scoring Browns game.
Good Luck all
