KC @ Cinci over 38
Teams with a combined 5 wins, should finally be able have some fun against each others' awful D's.
On the surface Cinci have been very poor offensively, but 6 of 7 home games this year have been against teams in the top 12 for total D!!
...including THE top 5!! :scared
Kansas are 31st.
Just when I thought the Kansas offense had stalled, they pulled out 31 points and nearly 500 yards last week agaisnt Miami.
Indi v. Tenn under 38.5 (1.97)
Two teams simply going thru the motions this week. Both starting QB's will be giving way to Sorgi and Young...
...LenDale White looks like he'll miss, Harrison and Addai for the Colts...
...both starting Centres...
In an almost identical situation last season, Tenn won 16-10 with only about 550 total yards.
Houson -3 (2.09)
League: 15-0 SU (11-2-2...Av. win 16.5) at home, total 44.5+, off a SU los as away 3+ fav, if opp ha <30 mins TOP at home. [Houston]
7-0 SU and ats (Av. win 25.1!!) if non-Div.
Great match-up for the Texans at home where they av. 25 ppg, and 270 yards passing @ 8.0!...up againsnt the 28th ranked Chicago pass D.
Bears wins on the road have come agaisnt Detroit, St. Louis and a very rusty Indi in week 1.
Houston just 2 losses at home...Baltimore and Indi, both with 10+ wins, and both in the top 10 for pass D.
This line has a bit extra built in for Chicago "needing" to win, but Houston have plenty of motivation themselves trying to avoid a losing season.
NO v. Carolina over 51 (1.95)
No problems with taking the high number here. NO with no play-off chance, but Brees needing 402 yards to break Marino's season record, so LOTS of balls in the air...and every chace he has some success.
They av. 32 ppg, and 9.3 ypp at home as it is, now face a Panthers' D who allow 26 ppg on the road...30.1 ppg if we take out a crappy Oakland's 6.
More problems for Carolina with some defensive injuries...two guys signed of the practice squad will start.
They hve been on fire with the ball tho, av'ing over 31 ppg in their last 6 and haven't scored under 28!
Washington @ SF under 37.5
It's a Washngton game afterall! On a 0-10-1 under run, topping 37 just twice in that run.
A spluttering, ineffective offense...a defense with a chip on it's shoulder, having the 4th best overall record and not one Pro-Bowl selection.
SF on a 0-4 under run themselves, holding teams to under 12 ppg, and have had a reasonably strong run D all season, allowing just 3.7 ypr.
Score just 17 last week against a pretty bad Rams' D...and probably no coincidence their last 2 games have score just 9 and 17 without Gore.
San Diego v. Denver under 50.5 (2.00)
League: 4-16 under (-3.7) Div 7+ fav, off a 14+ ats win as a 3+ dog, with 30+ mins TOP [SD]
0-6 (-7.4) if total is 40+
Monster total for a couple of reasons...obviously a 38-39 game last meeting, and also SD's 41 point game last week...although they totalled just 370 yards, and LT was again held under 100 yards.
Chargers are a different team at home tho. Allowing under 20 ppg, and have only had a game top 50 once.
3 of the last 4 meetings @ SD have been under, including a 23-3 game last year with the total @ 47.
A genuine meaningful game, I think this one sneaks under a high total.
Jacksonville @ Baltimore under 37.5 (1.94)
Two D's in the top 12, two offenses in the bottom 12. Ravens game last week effectively had 21 "extra" points in the last 3 minutes that wouldn't have happened in 99% of games...
...holing teams to 10 ppg at home on the season.
Jax have played just 1 top 10 D on the road this season, and scored just 10 @ Tenn.
Baltimore have some decent numbers at home, but 3 games against bottom 10 's (Cleveland, Cinci and Oakland) 10 v. Tenn, 9 v. Pits, and 23 non-offensive points out of 60 v. Philli and Wash!
Jax are 2-5 under on the road on the season, with overs at Detroit and Indi...
...they don't figure to score much, and even with one freebie score, 27-10 still looks a lot.
Pits -11
Probably a bit of a square pick, but not sure how Cleveland score enough to keep this close.
6, 6, 9, 3, 0 offensive points last 5 games, now Gradkowski gets the start, who's last game @ Pittsburgh was a Tampa start for a 3-20 loss.
Steelers have played 2 of the very best D's last 2 weeks...in fact they've had a tough schedule...10 games have been played against top 12 D's!!
They've still av'd nearly 22 ppg at home, and the last 4 home games v. the Browns, they have scored 31, 27, 34 & 34!
Even going through the motions this game shouldn't be close.
Good Luck all
Teams with a combined 5 wins, should finally be able have some fun against each others' awful D's.
On the surface Cinci have been very poor offensively, but 6 of 7 home games this year have been against teams in the top 12 for total D!!
...including THE top 5!! :scared
Kansas are 31st.
Just when I thought the Kansas offense had stalled, they pulled out 31 points and nearly 500 yards last week agaisnt Miami.
Indi v. Tenn under 38.5 (1.97)
Two teams simply going thru the motions this week. Both starting QB's will be giving way to Sorgi and Young...
...LenDale White looks like he'll miss, Harrison and Addai for the Colts...
...both starting Centres...
In an almost identical situation last season, Tenn won 16-10 with only about 550 total yards.
Houson -3 (2.09)
League: 15-0 SU (11-2-2...Av. win 16.5) at home, total 44.5+, off a SU los as away 3+ fav, if opp ha <30 mins TOP at home. [Houston]
7-0 SU and ats (Av. win 25.1!!) if non-Div.
Great match-up for the Texans at home where they av. 25 ppg, and 270 yards passing @ 8.0!...up againsnt the 28th ranked Chicago pass D.
Bears wins on the road have come agaisnt Detroit, St. Louis and a very rusty Indi in week 1.
Houston just 2 losses at home...Baltimore and Indi, both with 10+ wins, and both in the top 10 for pass D.
This line has a bit extra built in for Chicago "needing" to win, but Houston have plenty of motivation themselves trying to avoid a losing season.
NO v. Carolina over 51 (1.95)
No problems with taking the high number here. NO with no play-off chance, but Brees needing 402 yards to break Marino's season record, so LOTS of balls in the air...and every chace he has some success.
They av. 32 ppg, and 9.3 ypp at home as it is, now face a Panthers' D who allow 26 ppg on the road...30.1 ppg if we take out a crappy Oakland's 6.
More problems for Carolina with some defensive injuries...two guys signed of the practice squad will start.
They hve been on fire with the ball tho, av'ing over 31 ppg in their last 6 and haven't scored under 28!
Washington @ SF under 37.5
It's a Washngton game afterall! On a 0-10-1 under run, topping 37 just twice in that run.
A spluttering, ineffective offense...a defense with a chip on it's shoulder, having the 4th best overall record and not one Pro-Bowl selection.
SF on a 0-4 under run themselves, holding teams to under 12 ppg, and have had a reasonably strong run D all season, allowing just 3.7 ypr.
Score just 17 last week against a pretty bad Rams' D...and probably no coincidence their last 2 games have score just 9 and 17 without Gore.
San Diego v. Denver under 50.5 (2.00)
League: 4-16 under (-3.7) Div 7+ fav, off a 14+ ats win as a 3+ dog, with 30+ mins TOP [SD]
0-6 (-7.4) if total is 40+
Monster total for a couple of reasons...obviously a 38-39 game last meeting, and also SD's 41 point game last week...although they totalled just 370 yards, and LT was again held under 100 yards.
Chargers are a different team at home tho. Allowing under 20 ppg, and have only had a game top 50 once.
3 of the last 4 meetings @ SD have been under, including a 23-3 game last year with the total @ 47.
A genuine meaningful game, I think this one sneaks under a high total.
Jacksonville @ Baltimore under 37.5 (1.94)
Two D's in the top 12, two offenses in the bottom 12. Ravens game last week effectively had 21 "extra" points in the last 3 minutes that wouldn't have happened in 99% of games...
...holing teams to 10 ppg at home on the season.
Jax have played just 1 top 10 D on the road this season, and scored just 10 @ Tenn.
Baltimore have some decent numbers at home, but 3 games against bottom 10 's (Cleveland, Cinci and Oakland) 10 v. Tenn, 9 v. Pits, and 23 non-offensive points out of 60 v. Philli and Wash!
Jax are 2-5 under on the road on the season, with overs at Detroit and Indi...
...they don't figure to score much, and even with one freebie score, 27-10 still looks a lot.
Pits -11
Probably a bit of a square pick, but not sure how Cleveland score enough to keep this close.
6, 6, 9, 3, 0 offensive points last 5 games, now Gradkowski gets the start, who's last game @ Pittsburgh was a Tampa start for a 3-20 loss.
Steelers have played 2 of the very best D's last 2 weeks...in fact they've had a tough schedule...10 games have been played against top 12 D's!!
They've still av'd nearly 22 ppg at home, and the last 4 home games v. the Browns, they have scored 31, 27, 34 & 34!
Even going through the motions this game shouldn't be close.
Good Luck all
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