6-2
Very early I know, but i) It's Tuesday night and I'm bored...and ii) Not sure I'll get better lines than these, so I may aswell take them now and hope for no injuries or suspensions during the week! :scared
Little bit pissed about losing the TB/NO under...the 'extra' 3 points was from an absolute NO give up...going for 4th and 10 on their own 20 with more than 5 mins to play. :nono:
But, I guess hitting an over in which both teams individually top the total makes up for it! :drinky: :mj07:
Carolina -3.5
League: 9-28-1 (av. loss 10.8) any home dog, total <38, off any ats win as away 10+ dog. [Atl]
(0-2 last season: Tenn 14-45 Dal @ +10, NYJ 0-10 Chic @ +6)
1-10 (av. loss 13.1) as any home dog off an ats win as away 10+ dog, if opp is off a 14+ ats loss. (Team scores 9.8ppg)
and 0-8 (av. loss 14.5) if total is <38. (Team scores 8.2)
Throw in that the Panthers are 9-2-1 (Av. win 9.5) on the road inside the Div since 2003...
Not sure what it is about Carolina, but they do seem to play better on the road...but it shouldn't be too difficult here anyway as Atlanta have scored just 3 and 7 points in the first 2 weeks.
They won last year at Atlanta 10-63 as 6 point favs...with Weinke at QB, and he threw the ball a whole 7 times!!! :scared
They dominated on the ground, holding the ball for over 41 minutes...so imagine what they can do with a decent ground game and a QB who will throw the ball to one of the best WR in the game right now, against a D giving up an NFL second worst 9.1 y/play!!
Public look to be all over it, but can't see why not.
Dallas @ Chicago under 42
League: 7-17 under (av. total 40.8...av. score 33.3) away dog, off a 10+ ats win as away 3+ fav. [Dal]
2-8 under (0-10 this no...av. total 40.8...av. score 29.0!) if TOP was 34+ mins last game.
...also 0-5 under (and ats!) if opp last went 'under'...
...which is why I liked this game anyway.
Dallas have played 2 pretty bad D's so far (Miami gave up a heap of yards in wk. 1 too...8.2 y/pass allowed in 3rd worst), now get Chicago who allow a league best 2.4 y/rush (having already played LT and LJ!!) and have given up 10 and 14 points.
The problem being (for the Bears anyway!) they just can't get anything going with the ball.
3 points and 20 last week, but 7 of those was an INT returned.
Grossman throwing at just 5.3 y/pass...3.6 y/play overall! (second worst only behind SF)...I think both teams will be happy to run the ball in this one, but the Bears' D won't wear down like Miami last week and won't allow the big pass plays.
(oh, and if anyone wants a prop bet on how many catches TO takes in the middle of the field, let me know
)
3 team, 6 point teaser:
Indi +0.5, Baltimore -2 & KC/Minni under 39 @ 2.80
League: 11-0 SU (Av. win 9.9) away 3+ fav, total 40.5+, off a 1-3 SU win as away 3+ fav. [Indi]
League: 6-38 SU (Av. loss 13.0) away 7+ dog off a 1-3 SU win as a home dog. [Zona]
(0-4 in 2006: Tenn 6-34 Dallas @ +13; TB 3-17 NYG @ +9; Wash 3-27 Phil @ +8; Cleve 7-27 Pits @ +7.5)
League: 12-0 SU (Av. win 12.6) home 7+ fav off a 1-3 ats loss as home 7+ fav. [Balt]
Just not sure how the Cards get anything going here at all.
Baltimore are 18-1 SU as home 7+ favs since 2000, and 10-1 SU as home non-conf favs in the same time.
They've allowed just 2.5 y/rush so far, so Edge won't get things his own way like weeks 1 & 2.
Surely the offense can do enough to win by a FG!
Indi, well, they're Indi. Houston will go alright this year, but haven't really had a big test so far. They were actually the last team to beat the Colts, so there might even be some revenge factor here...
...either way, history suggests that a close 'scare' last week will be enough to keep Manning and co. on their toes this week, so I don't think they'll let this one slip.
I said I'd be following KC unders all year...and then promptly missed out last week!
Back on here tho. 3 and 10 points...a coach that wants to run more, despite going exactly 50/50 last week...not that he has much choice with the lack of talent at QB!
First week Vikes scored 24...with TWO INT returns and a 60 yard screen pass with about 10 missed tackles.
17 last week, but with a fumble recovery TD!
SO the offense av's 10 a week.
I still think the KC D is under-rated, so it's pretty tough to see high 30's scored here, providing there's not a whole world of ST/D scoring.
That's it for me this week I reckon... so good to you all
Very early I know, but i) It's Tuesday night and I'm bored...and ii) Not sure I'll get better lines than these, so I may aswell take them now and hope for no injuries or suspensions during the week! :scared
Little bit pissed about losing the TB/NO under...the 'extra' 3 points was from an absolute NO give up...going for 4th and 10 on their own 20 with more than 5 mins to play. :nono:
But, I guess hitting an over in which both teams individually top the total makes up for it! :drinky: :mj07:
Carolina -3.5
League: 9-28-1 (av. loss 10.8) any home dog, total <38, off any ats win as away 10+ dog. [Atl]
(0-2 last season: Tenn 14-45 Dal @ +10, NYJ 0-10 Chic @ +6)
1-10 (av. loss 13.1) as any home dog off an ats win as away 10+ dog, if opp is off a 14+ ats loss. (Team scores 9.8ppg)
and 0-8 (av. loss 14.5) if total is <38. (Team scores 8.2)
Throw in that the Panthers are 9-2-1 (Av. win 9.5) on the road inside the Div since 2003...
Not sure what it is about Carolina, but they do seem to play better on the road...but it shouldn't be too difficult here anyway as Atlanta have scored just 3 and 7 points in the first 2 weeks.
They won last year at Atlanta 10-63 as 6 point favs...with Weinke at QB, and he threw the ball a whole 7 times!!! :scared
They dominated on the ground, holding the ball for over 41 minutes...so imagine what they can do with a decent ground game and a QB who will throw the ball to one of the best WR in the game right now, against a D giving up an NFL second worst 9.1 y/play!!
Public look to be all over it, but can't see why not.
Dallas @ Chicago under 42
League: 7-17 under (av. total 40.8...av. score 33.3) away dog, off a 10+ ats win as away 3+ fav. [Dal]
2-8 under (0-10 this no...av. total 40.8...av. score 29.0!) if TOP was 34+ mins last game.
...also 0-5 under (and ats!) if opp last went 'under'...
...which is why I liked this game anyway.
Dallas have played 2 pretty bad D's so far (Miami gave up a heap of yards in wk. 1 too...8.2 y/pass allowed in 3rd worst), now get Chicago who allow a league best 2.4 y/rush (having already played LT and LJ!!) and have given up 10 and 14 points.
The problem being (for the Bears anyway!) they just can't get anything going with the ball.
3 points and 20 last week, but 7 of those was an INT returned.
Grossman throwing at just 5.3 y/pass...3.6 y/play overall! (second worst only behind SF)...I think both teams will be happy to run the ball in this one, but the Bears' D won't wear down like Miami last week and won't allow the big pass plays.
(oh, and if anyone wants a prop bet on how many catches TO takes in the middle of the field, let me know
)3 team, 6 point teaser:
Indi +0.5, Baltimore -2 & KC/Minni under 39 @ 2.80
League: 11-0 SU (Av. win 9.9) away 3+ fav, total 40.5+, off a 1-3 SU win as away 3+ fav. [Indi]
League: 6-38 SU (Av. loss 13.0) away 7+ dog off a 1-3 SU win as a home dog. [Zona]
(0-4 in 2006: Tenn 6-34 Dallas @ +13; TB 3-17 NYG @ +9; Wash 3-27 Phil @ +8; Cleve 7-27 Pits @ +7.5)
League: 12-0 SU (Av. win 12.6) home 7+ fav off a 1-3 ats loss as home 7+ fav. [Balt]
Just not sure how the Cards get anything going here at all.
Baltimore are 18-1 SU as home 7+ favs since 2000, and 10-1 SU as home non-conf favs in the same time.
They've allowed just 2.5 y/rush so far, so Edge won't get things his own way like weeks 1 & 2.
Surely the offense can do enough to win by a FG!
Indi, well, they're Indi. Houston will go alright this year, but haven't really had a big test so far. They were actually the last team to beat the Colts, so there might even be some revenge factor here...
...either way, history suggests that a close 'scare' last week will be enough to keep Manning and co. on their toes this week, so I don't think they'll let this one slip.
I said I'd be following KC unders all year...and then promptly missed out last week!
Back on here tho. 3 and 10 points...a coach that wants to run more, despite going exactly 50/50 last week...not that he has much choice with the lack of talent at QB!
First week Vikes scored 24...with TWO INT returns and a 60 yard screen pass with about 10 missed tackles.
17 last week, but with a fumble recovery TD!
SO the offense av's 10 a week.
I still think the KC D is under-rated, so it's pretty tough to see high 30's scored here, providing there's not a whole world of ST/D scoring.
That's it for me this week I reckon... so good to you all
