12-6-1 (+5.14)
Cleveland -3 (2.15) (Just might buy this one down to 2.5 yet...it's 2.5 (1.87) @ Centrebet anyway)
League: 12-3-2 (Av. win 10.3) away fav of 3 or less off a 3- SU loss as any 7- dog. [Cle] (1-0 last season. Cinci 31-23 Tenn @ -3)
4-0-1 (Av. win 16.0!!) if they were a home 'dog.
Despite an 0-3 start to the season, the Browns have definately shown more than I expected...and definately more than the Raiders!!
In fact the 0-3 might be a bit misleading, as the 3 teams they've played are a combined 9-0!!...but still, this is more about Oakland!
0-2...6-55 total score! Dead last in total offense at just 2.7 y/p!! Walter at QB...nasty!
The Browns won 9-7 @ Oakland last season, held Collins to 132 yards and were -1 in TO's, so you'd think they could beat a far worse Oakland unit by at least a FG this time around.
SL v. Det under 43.5 (1.98)
League: 2-16 under (Av. total 45.0...av. score 36.3) home 3+ fav, off a 3- SU win as away 7- dog, if total is >42.5 [SL]
0-7 under (Av. total 44.2...av. score 35.6) if opp is off a SU loss.
League: 11-31 under (Av. total 46.1...av. score 41.5) away 7- dog off a 10+ ats loss as home 7- fav, if total >42.5 [Det] (0-1 under last season. Min 8-37 Cinci @ 47)
Just too high of a total for two teams who struggle to score. Detroit ALWAYS struggle to score on the road (as long as I have been following them anyway!)...in 8 away games last season they av'd just 12.5 ppg!
I know things are a bit different with Kitna rather than a totally inept Harrington, but one thing remains constant...the lack of any real running game. Again this year, in 3 games they have av'd just 63 y/g on the ground at just 3.5 y/c.
...but on the other side of the coin, their run D is the team's only real strength!
In 3 games they are 2nd best in the NFL in stuffing the run, allowing just 2.8 y/c, so they should be able to hold a more conservative/run based Rams offense in reasonable check.
Speaking of the Rams O, they have scored just 2 TD's all season, and av'd just over 15 ppg...with 2 games being against 2 reasonably weak defenses, and are (insurprisingly) 0-3 under so far.
Philli v. GB over 46.5 (1.87)
League: 10-1 over (Av. total 46.5...av. score 57.0!) home 10+ fav, off a 7+ ats win as away 7- fav, if total is >44.5. [Philli]
Four weeks into the season and here's my first over!...and it looks probably the best play of the week.
I know it's a Monday Night game, but I'm getting on now, as it's as high as 48 already. The only real problem about betting this far out is potential bad weather, but there should be a middle chance by the time that looks likely anyway.
A few things we know about Philli. They have the No. 1 ranked offence in the NFL @ over 420 yards/game & 6.7 y/play!! Despite a 'commitment' to running the ball more, they still throw nearly 60% of the time, and in 3 games they have yet to score <24 @ 28.6 ppg.
Green Bay? Well, their defense is rubbish!!...2nd worst to Houston actually...allowing 5.9 y/play, and haven't allowed less than 24 @ 28ppg.
They also have Brett Favre, who will keep attacking and throwing the ball until the bitter end! They throw the ball more than any other team, more than 40 times a game, and after a terrible week 1, they have scored 27 and 31 last 2 weeks.
This should be an old fashioned shoot-out, with balls flying all over the place...and hopefully a few scores along the way.
Carolina -7 (1.91)
League: 4-16-1 (Av. loss 12.9) away 3+ dog, off a 21+ ats win as home 3+ dog. [NO] (0-1 last season. Mia 7-17 Jets @ +5.5)
0-8 (Av. loss 18.5!) as a 7+ dog.
The line opened at -9/9.5, and fell to 7 after NO's big win on Monday Night, but that just makes it easier to play the Panthers!
Terrible spot for NO, coming off a MASSIVE game and build up (likened to a Super Bowl week!!), and a big win over probably their fiercest Div rival...
now they have to try to follow that with another Div game on the road. Tough!
The final score in both games last week were misleading too...NO obviously scored their first TD off a blocked punt...and Carolina really dominated TB, depsite having to pull it out at the end.
373 yards to 219.
22 FD's to 13...but 3 lost fumbles kept Tampa in it after being down 17-0 early.
Forget the first 2 weeks, it's obvious how much better this offense functions with Smith involved, and I think they will simply have too much fire-power for the slightly less motivated this week Saints.
They are my 4 definate plays....
...still thinking about...
Dallas -9.5. Lot of points to give on the road obviously, but Tennesee are pretty bad!
League: 3-12 (Av. loss 12.2) any home dog off a 3- SU loss as away 10+ dog. [Tenn] (0-1 last season. Balt 9-21 Cinci @ +3)
1-9 (Av. loss 14.8) if total <40...just backs up what we all already know, that the Titans couldn't score in a brothel.
Tempted...but also tempted to tease down to -3 with either KC or Atlanta who are both in (historically anyway!) strong situations.
(Atl in a 12-4 ats spot...'Zona 7-26-1 SU, and 2-12-1 SU)
(KC 20-2 SU spot...SF 12-80 SU situation!!)...
...so you'd think they're both big chances to at least win, if not cover.
Also like Baltimore to win SU...gave some reasons in Geno's thread which I won't bother repeating unless I put the $$ down.
Good Luck all
Cleveland -3 (2.15) (Just might buy this one down to 2.5 yet...it's 2.5 (1.87) @ Centrebet anyway)
League: 12-3-2 (Av. win 10.3) away fav of 3 or less off a 3- SU loss as any 7- dog. [Cle] (1-0 last season. Cinci 31-23 Tenn @ -3)
4-0-1 (Av. win 16.0!!) if they were a home 'dog.
Despite an 0-3 start to the season, the Browns have definately shown more than I expected...and definately more than the Raiders!!
In fact the 0-3 might be a bit misleading, as the 3 teams they've played are a combined 9-0!!...but still, this is more about Oakland!
0-2...6-55 total score! Dead last in total offense at just 2.7 y/p!! Walter at QB...nasty!
The Browns won 9-7 @ Oakland last season, held Collins to 132 yards and were -1 in TO's, so you'd think they could beat a far worse Oakland unit by at least a FG this time around.
SL v. Det under 43.5 (1.98)
League: 2-16 under (Av. total 45.0...av. score 36.3) home 3+ fav, off a 3- SU win as away 7- dog, if total is >42.5 [SL]
0-7 under (Av. total 44.2...av. score 35.6) if opp is off a SU loss.
League: 11-31 under (Av. total 46.1...av. score 41.5) away 7- dog off a 10+ ats loss as home 7- fav, if total >42.5 [Det] (0-1 under last season. Min 8-37 Cinci @ 47)
Just too high of a total for two teams who struggle to score. Detroit ALWAYS struggle to score on the road (as long as I have been following them anyway!)...in 8 away games last season they av'd just 12.5 ppg!
I know things are a bit different with Kitna rather than a totally inept Harrington, but one thing remains constant...the lack of any real running game. Again this year, in 3 games they have av'd just 63 y/g on the ground at just 3.5 y/c.
...but on the other side of the coin, their run D is the team's only real strength!
In 3 games they are 2nd best in the NFL in stuffing the run, allowing just 2.8 y/c, so they should be able to hold a more conservative/run based Rams offense in reasonable check.
Speaking of the Rams O, they have scored just 2 TD's all season, and av'd just over 15 ppg...with 2 games being against 2 reasonably weak defenses, and are (insurprisingly) 0-3 under so far.
Philli v. GB over 46.5 (1.87)
League: 10-1 over (Av. total 46.5...av. score 57.0!) home 10+ fav, off a 7+ ats win as away 7- fav, if total is >44.5. [Philli]
Four weeks into the season and here's my first over!...and it looks probably the best play of the week.
I know it's a Monday Night game, but I'm getting on now, as it's as high as 48 already. The only real problem about betting this far out is potential bad weather, but there should be a middle chance by the time that looks likely anyway.
A few things we know about Philli. They have the No. 1 ranked offence in the NFL @ over 420 yards/game & 6.7 y/play!! Despite a 'commitment' to running the ball more, they still throw nearly 60% of the time, and in 3 games they have yet to score <24 @ 28.6 ppg.
Green Bay? Well, their defense is rubbish!!...2nd worst to Houston actually...allowing 5.9 y/play, and haven't allowed less than 24 @ 28ppg.
They also have Brett Favre, who will keep attacking and throwing the ball until the bitter end! They throw the ball more than any other team, more than 40 times a game, and after a terrible week 1, they have scored 27 and 31 last 2 weeks.
This should be an old fashioned shoot-out, with balls flying all over the place...and hopefully a few scores along the way.
Carolina -7 (1.91)
League: 4-16-1 (Av. loss 12.9) away 3+ dog, off a 21+ ats win as home 3+ dog. [NO] (0-1 last season. Mia 7-17 Jets @ +5.5)
0-8 (Av. loss 18.5!) as a 7+ dog.
The line opened at -9/9.5, and fell to 7 after NO's big win on Monday Night, but that just makes it easier to play the Panthers!
Terrible spot for NO, coming off a MASSIVE game and build up (likened to a Super Bowl week!!), and a big win over probably their fiercest Div rival...
now they have to try to follow that with another Div game on the road. Tough!
The final score in both games last week were misleading too...NO obviously scored their first TD off a blocked punt...and Carolina really dominated TB, depsite having to pull it out at the end.
373 yards to 219.
22 FD's to 13...but 3 lost fumbles kept Tampa in it after being down 17-0 early.
Forget the first 2 weeks, it's obvious how much better this offense functions with Smith involved, and I think they will simply have too much fire-power for the slightly less motivated this week Saints.
They are my 4 definate plays....
...still thinking about...
Dallas -9.5. Lot of points to give on the road obviously, but Tennesee are pretty bad!
League: 3-12 (Av. loss 12.2) any home dog off a 3- SU loss as away 10+ dog. [Tenn] (0-1 last season. Balt 9-21 Cinci @ +3)
1-9 (Av. loss 14.8) if total <40...just backs up what we all already know, that the Titans couldn't score in a brothel.
Tempted...but also tempted to tease down to -3 with either KC or Atlanta who are both in (historically anyway!) strong situations.
(Atl in a 12-4 ats spot...'Zona 7-26-1 SU, and 2-12-1 SU)
(KC 20-2 SU spot...SF 12-80 SU situation!!)...
...so you'd think they're both big chances to at least win, if not cover.
Also like Baltimore to win SU...gave some reasons in Geno's thread which I won't bother repeating unless I put the $$ down.
Good Luck all
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