Wk 4

[Cie]

20-15 +13.32U ytd


Wk 4 leans:

Mia -2.5 [-115]
Tulsa +20
UNC +13
ECU +25
Army +29
Ole Miss +21
UGA +3.5
Tol +3.5
UL-L +10.5
Buff +4.5
NT +6.5
Marsh +22
Indy +2.5
Iowa +7
Cocks +16.5
UNLV +8.5


GL:weed:

 

[Cie]

Played 3 early:


Mia -2.5 -115 x2 Unranked fav system play. Canes should be able to run vs. Aggies, who are playing their 1st road game of the season.


Toledo +3.5 x2 Toledo playing with revenge, while Iowa St is in a sandwich spot after beating Iowa with Neb on deck. Toledo is 36-4 SU and 24-10 ATS @ home L7 seasons, including 5-0 ATS as a home dog. Rockets knocked off Kansas @ home LY.

Iowa +7 x2 Iowa has revenge in mind, and the Hawkeye front should be able to control Wisky ground game. I am not impressed w/ Wisky. D seems slow to me:shrug:

I will definitely play Ole Miss, but I am guessing this line will grow:shrug: Also trying to hold out for UNC +14.

Other likely plays include:

ECU +25
Army +28.5
Buff +4.5
UL-L +10.5
UGA +3.5

Still need to look into these sides:

UNLV +8.5
Col St +6.5
Marshall +22
Indy +2.5



GL:weed:

 

[Cie]

As for S Carolina @ LSU, SC jumped out at me, especially w/ the opening line @ +16.5. I then noticed that SC offense didn't play well vs. only solid defense (UGA) they've facd. Cocks were held to 310 yds and 1-11 on 3rd down conversions in that game. Also, I'm thinking that LSU will be able to run well, which could spell trouble for SC.

 

[dawgball]

I like SCarolina in this spot.

I also think that +3.5 at Birmingham is an odd line. Alabama is definitely one of the team's that is getting a lot of public hype behind it, and with Georgia looking pretty poor against the Cocks I thought the line would be higher. With that being said, a Georgia play fits in well with the anti-sentiment rule.

 

[Cie]

I like SCarolina in this spot.

What advantages do you feel SC has? Had they lost to UGA, I would like SC more this week. That win should definitely keep LSU from coming in overconfident. Just trying to get another opinion. Thanks.

 

[Corley1011]

Keep up the good work Cie... Why do you like Ole Miss this weekend?

 

[Cie]

Keep up the good work Cie... Why do you like Ole Miss this weekend?

Fla is in a nice spot for a letdown. Playing @ Ole Miss off of the blowout of Tenn @ home with a revenge game next week vs. Auburn. It will be very easy for Fla to take this game lightly and coast to a 31-17 type of win.

GL:weed:

 

[taoist]

I agree wholeheartedly with the Ole Piss play.... I've faded them all year and I am 3-0, but i guess I'll back them this week. That one jumped off the page and grabbed me by the throat, as one of the old posters around here used to say. LOL


I think that you should get +24 or more by game day.... Every Joe Public player will be all over Florida after the beat down they put on Tennessee and with Ole Miss losing to Vandy.... With Florida in a sandwich, as you said and Ole Piss with nothing to play for besides an unlikely upset...at least they are at home in the Grove. Ole Piss + the points is the way to go.

:SIB

 

[Sam Bone]

What advantages do you feel SC has? Had they lost to UGA, I would like SC more this week. That win should definitely keep LSU from coming in overconfident. Just trying to get another opinion. Thanks.

Why does everyone on this site insist on betting against LSU? First everyone had Miss State, then VT was the underdog game of the year, and a few had MTSU last week saying they would score a few points because of what they did against Louisville. LSU has given up 7 points in three games with like 128 yds per game. Two shutouts. They seem to put up points at will, so for me any LSU game all season will be for them or a no play. There are plenty of better games to bet than this one against LSU. The talking heads on ESPN still like USC as #1 and I believe that will drive LSU every week. I think there defense has the mind set that they will not allow someone to score. South Carolina may very well cover, but I sure wouldn't bet on it especially with LSU at home.

 

[Cie]

Why does everyone on this site insist on betting against LSU? First everyone had Miss State, then VT was the underdog game of the year, and a few had MTSU last week saying they would score a few points because of what they did against Louisville. LSU has given up 7 points in three games with like 128 yds per game. Two shutouts. They seem to put up points at will, so for me any LSU game all season will be for them or a no play. There are plenty of better games to bet than this one against LSU. The talking heads on ESPN still like USC as #1 and I believe that will drive LSU every week. I think there defense has the mind set that they will not allow someone to score. South Carolina may very well cover, but I sure wouldn't bet on it especially with LSU at home.

I can't answer why everyone bets against LSU because I try to speak only for myself. I played against LSU all 3 weeks so far because I felt all were good plays. It is obvious that you have never made this type of mistake, and for that I commend you.

Last week I played against LSU because I knew that Will arnold and Matt Flynn wouldn't play. I did not expect Perriloux to be as sharp as he was. In fact, Perriloux looks far more advanced a this stage than Jamarcus was which is great news for myself and the rest of the Tiger faithful. I did not feel MTSU would move the football against LSU, but I did not expect LSU to score in the 40's.

I will post a play against LSU in a little while, but need to receive a call back from a friend in Baton Rouge. Let's just say that I think LSU might lose this week:scared

GL

 

[Cie]

I just played 2 units on South Carolina +17 -115 (bought hook from +16.5 [-105]).

Ealry Doucet, who was a late scratch for the MTSU game will not be playing according to what I heard this morning and was just confirmed. This affects the LSU offense very much, as he is the only experienced receiver on the team, and the best blocker by far. He has played in BIG games, and excelled. This type of leadership is not replaced easily, even though his backups run 4.4's and were all big time prospects out of High School and CC. Anyway, this ine will drop imo, so I grabbed it while I could. I may middle off of this play down the line, but for now I'm on SC. GL to all.

From AJC:

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 09/17/07 Steve Spurrier says he wants to achieve a lot of "firsts" in his time at South Carolina. On Saturday, Spurrier will get another chance when the Gamecocks go to No. 2 LSU (3:30 p.m., CBS). In its 100-plus years of playing college football, South Carolina has never beaten a team ranked higher than No. 3.
Spurrier, a voter in the USA Today coaches poll, told reporters on Sunday he had LSU No. 1 on his ballot.
"Between LSU, Oklahoma and Southern Cal it's pretty much a coin flip," Spurrier said. "But since LSU is in the SEC and we're playing them this week, I voted them No. 1."
? It's safe to say the South Carolina offensive line is in Spurrier's doghouse. And quarterback Blake Mitchell is keeping them company. Spurrier ripped into his offensive line, which gave Mitchell little protection in a 38-3 win over South Carolina State. Mitchell threw three interceptions and Spurrier just ran the ball in the second half.
"Our right guard just whiffed on a guy," Spurrier said. "Didn't slow him down. Then the quarterback starts getting a little gun shy."
Someone pointed out that LSU, which features All-America defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, is not the team you want to play if your offensive line is not playing well.

 

[dawgball]

Cie -- sorry that I can't provide more sound reasoning. My plays are primarily based on feel of the public. I liked LSU versus Miss St. in the first week, and have not had an opinion the last two games. This is not so much a bet against or for either team. Just against the hype.

Sam Bone makes a very good point, though, that LSU does not get the credit they deserve from national media. I think based on their results so far, it is hard for them not to be #1. If they roll through the SEC, they will have to replace USC at some point, I would think. But the SEC is pretty weak this year, so it may be to the detriment.

Ole Miss is another play I like due to the same reasons.

 

[Sam Bone]

Cie -- sorry that I can't provide more sound reasoning. My plays are primarily based on feel of the public. I liked LSU versus Miss St. in the first week, and have not had an opinion the last two games. This is not so much a bet against or for either team. Just against the hype.

Sam Bone makes a very good point, though, that LSU does not get the credit they deserve from national media. I think based on their results so far, it is hard for them not to be #1. If they roll through the SEC, they will have to replace USC at some point, I would think. But the SEC is pretty weak this year, so it may be to the detriment.

Ole Miss is another play I like due to the same reasons.

I wouldn't say the SEC is pretty weak this year just yet. My Auburn Tigers are the only team letting the conference down so far. No one else has really lost to someone they should have beaten. Plus Alabama and Kentucky look pretty good. SEC has 6 ranked teams right now and that is tops. When good teams play each other someone has to lose. That's just the way it goes in this conference.

 

[dawgball]

I wouldn't say the SEC is pretty weak this year just yet. My Auburn Tigers are the only team letting the conference down so far. No one else has really lost to someone they should have beaten. Plus Alabama and Kentucky look pretty good. SEC has 6 ranked teams right now and that is tops. When good teams play each other someone has to lose. That's just the way it goes in this conference.

Outside the top 2 teams, I feel the conference is a little disappointing this year.

As stated before the season started, Georgia is going to struggle. Tennessee is pathetic. South Carolina and Kentucky are in our top 5?? Can you believe that? UK is my second team (was born and raised there, then went to UGA), so I'm glad to see that they are pretty legit.

Just sucks to see only two teams worthy of any national hype. I don't expect more contenders, but there really isn't a lot of appeal for the teams other than LSU and Florida.

 

[Sam Bone]

dawgball,

I agree that LSU and Florida are the only two teams that will get a lot of national hype for now, other than Alabama. They always get theirs. But there really isn't another conference with more than two either.

Sorry Cie for using your thread to do all this SEC talk. This is the end of it for me.

Good Luck this week on your plays. Always like to see your opinion.

 

[Cie]

Added:

UGA +3.5 [-105] x2
UNC +14 [-105] x2

Updated card:

UGA +3.5 [-105] x2
UNC +14 [-105] x2
South Carolina +17 -115 (bought 1/2 from +16.5 [-105])
Mia -2.5 -115 x2
Toledo +3.5 x2
Iowa +7 x2
Army+28 x2

 

[stwoody]

Cie.....agree with your early thoughts. I have never been a SEC tout (thats why I lose hats..lol)....LSU and Gators appear to be real deal. I think +17 is too many points, but I think I will stick with the under in this game as Spurrier's offense has been offensive.

I'm liking Miami too...

Good luck Sir!!

 

[Cie]

Added:

Army +28 [-105] x2




GL:weed:

 

[AR182]

we're on a few of the same sides...except i think i may take wisconsin....good luck this week cie...

 

[Cie]

we're on a few of the same sides...except i think i may take wisconsin....good luck this week cie...

Glat we agree on a few. I'm pissed I jumped on Iowa when I did. Could have held on for +8.


Looking at these unders:

Mia un46.5
UVA un40.5 I don't have a line on this one yet, or I would have already played it.


glta