A profitable 2-2 last week with the 3-team teaser getting home directly off Matt Stover's boot! :00hour
Makes 8-4 for the season.
Baltimore -3.5
Despite just reading (what seemed like) a 40 page novel warning me on the evils of taking "public" road favs...I think they will steamroll a crappy Brownies team here!
League: 8-2-1 (Av. win 8.6) away 3+ fav, off a SU win but ats loss as a 7+ fav, if opp is off a 1-3 ats win. [Balt]
(0-0-1 in 2006. Caro 20-12 Cleveland @ -8)
5-0 (Av. win 13.2) if they are off a 1-3 SU win.
League: 5-16-2 (Av. loss 11.5) home 3+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win as away dog, if the game went 'over'. [Cleve]
1-10-1 (Av. loss 14.4) if opp is off any ats loss.
( * 2 common games with the first Balt 'trend', so a combined 3-16-2)
Cleveland getting a bit too much respect after an ats win, and Baltimore not so after surviving a close one in the end.
The facts are that the Ravens are the far better team here. Cleveland 2nd worst overall D...a bit of that is still from the Cinci game, but they've allowed 34, 45 and 26 points.
Balti D took a bit of a hit last week with the late Warner rally, but 8th overall, and no. 1 in rush D (61 y/game @ 2.9).
Can Anderson light them up for the 20 or so points (likely) needed to stay in this game? Doubt it.
Atlanta v. Houston under 39
League: 9-17 under (av. total 38.9...av. score 36.2) away fav, off a SU loss as home 3+ dog, with <30 mins TOP. [Houst]
1-10 under (Av. total 38.8...av. score 28.8) if last game went 'over'
0-6 under (Av. total 38.3...av. score 26.0!) if opp last lost ats.
Big total for a team without it's best receiver and also it's 2 best RB's.
Last week 7 of their points came from returning the opening KO for a TD, and they converted a 4th and 9 late for 7 more.
Just 40 rushing yards last week, and Atlanta are surprisingly 8th overall in pass D (allowed just 165 yards last week).
Of course Atlanta are struggling to score as it is with just 30 points in 3 games.
Looks a 20-17 game at best to me.
Indi v. Denver over 46 (2.00)
League: 12-1-1 over (Av. total 40.6...av. score 49.9) away 7+ dog off a SU loss as a 3+ fav, with <26 mins TOP, if opp was last a 3+ fav. [Denver]
(2-0 in 2006. Wash 22-36 Indi @ 47.5; SF 26-23 Denv @ 40)
Before last week Denver were no. 1 in the NFL for total offense. Last week they simply didn't have enough of the ball to score. Converting yards into points has been a problem so far, but if they get 21 this week that should be enough.
Indi have scored 41, 22 and 30...Denver allowed 14 v. a terribe Buffalo, 20 and 24 to Oak and Jax, hardly explosive offenses themselves, there's no reason why the NFL's 4th best offense and 3rd highest scoring team can't go even better.
The last 7 meetings have gone over this number @ 56.5 ppg! inc. 34-31 last year.
Philli @ NYG under 47.5
League: 2-10 under (0-12 under this no...av. total 40.6...av. score 37.0) away fav off a 21+ ats win as home fav, if opp is off a 10+ ats win. [Phil]
(0-1 under this season. Indi 22-20 Tenn @ 46)
0-6 under (Av. total 44.7...av. score 38.9) if total is >40.5...
...and 0-5 under (Av. score 32.4) if last game was 10+ over.
Massive over-reaction to last week's score, imo. Coming off scores of 13 and 12, they smack a disorganised Detroit with a few long balls and suddenly the total is 47.5 for a Sunday Night division game?!
We also have to remember that their D is going along ok, giving up just 19 ppg.
They are just 1-6-1 under as road favs inside the Div since 2002, probably for that very reason.
The Giants D has been pretty bad, but held Wash to just 14 FD's last week.
I expect a much more conservative game-plan from the Eagles this week...besides, they are 2-9 under in their last 11 after scoring 30+.
...I don't expect it be a total slug-fest, but getting the under above 47 here I do like.
NE -7
League: 9-29-1 (Av. loss 12.7) any 3+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win as away 3+ dog, with 30+ mins TOP. [Cinci]
2-10-1 (Av. loss 13.5) if opp is off a 7+ ats win.
1-7-1 (Av/ loss 13.7) as any home dog.
I just don't see how Cinci can keep up in this one. Can they force one punt? It's the no. 1 offense v. the 4th worst D...NE also happen to be the number 1 defense, so they should be able to get a couple of stops at least.
This may be the squarest of picks, but NE are just about the best team in football right now, and really should do some damage against this Cinci D.
They've done just that the last 2 meetings in Cinci, a 38-13 win last season @ -5.5, and 23-13 @ -2.5 in 2005.
The venue doesn't worry them, and I don't think anything else they see during the night will either.
Also like the GB/Minni over, but maybe hoping to get it at 37? :shrug:
Good luck as always to all.
Makes 8-4 for the season.
Baltimore -3.5
Despite just reading (what seemed like) a 40 page novel warning me on the evils of taking "public" road favs...I think they will steamroll a crappy Brownies team here!
League: 8-2-1 (Av. win 8.6) away 3+ fav, off a SU win but ats loss as a 7+ fav, if opp is off a 1-3 ats win. [Balt]
(0-0-1 in 2006. Caro 20-12 Cleveland @ -8)
5-0 (Av. win 13.2) if they are off a 1-3 SU win.
League: 5-16-2 (Av. loss 11.5) home 3+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win as away dog, if the game went 'over'. [Cleve]
1-10-1 (Av. loss 14.4) if opp is off any ats loss.
( * 2 common games with the first Balt 'trend', so a combined 3-16-2)
Cleveland getting a bit too much respect after an ats win, and Baltimore not so after surviving a close one in the end.
The facts are that the Ravens are the far better team here. Cleveland 2nd worst overall D...a bit of that is still from the Cinci game, but they've allowed 34, 45 and 26 points.
Balti D took a bit of a hit last week with the late Warner rally, but 8th overall, and no. 1 in rush D (61 y/game @ 2.9).
Can Anderson light them up for the 20 or so points (likely) needed to stay in this game? Doubt it.
Atlanta v. Houston under 39
League: 9-17 under (av. total 38.9...av. score 36.2) away fav, off a SU loss as home 3+ dog, with <30 mins TOP. [Houst]
1-10 under (Av. total 38.8...av. score 28.8) if last game went 'over'
0-6 under (Av. total 38.3...av. score 26.0!) if opp last lost ats.
Big total for a team without it's best receiver and also it's 2 best RB's.
Last week 7 of their points came from returning the opening KO for a TD, and they converted a 4th and 9 late for 7 more.
Just 40 rushing yards last week, and Atlanta are surprisingly 8th overall in pass D (allowed just 165 yards last week).
Of course Atlanta are struggling to score as it is with just 30 points in 3 games.
Looks a 20-17 game at best to me.
Indi v. Denver over 46 (2.00)
League: 12-1-1 over (Av. total 40.6...av. score 49.9) away 7+ dog off a SU loss as a 3+ fav, with <26 mins TOP, if opp was last a 3+ fav. [Denver]
(2-0 in 2006. Wash 22-36 Indi @ 47.5; SF 26-23 Denv @ 40)
Before last week Denver were no. 1 in the NFL for total offense. Last week they simply didn't have enough of the ball to score. Converting yards into points has been a problem so far, but if they get 21 this week that should be enough.
Indi have scored 41, 22 and 30...Denver allowed 14 v. a terribe Buffalo, 20 and 24 to Oak and Jax, hardly explosive offenses themselves, there's no reason why the NFL's 4th best offense and 3rd highest scoring team can't go even better.
The last 7 meetings have gone over this number @ 56.5 ppg! inc. 34-31 last year.
Philli @ NYG under 47.5
League: 2-10 under (0-12 under this no...av. total 40.6...av. score 37.0) away fav off a 21+ ats win as home fav, if opp is off a 10+ ats win. [Phil]
(0-1 under this season. Indi 22-20 Tenn @ 46)
0-6 under (Av. total 44.7...av. score 38.9) if total is >40.5...
...and 0-5 under (Av. score 32.4) if last game was 10+ over.
Massive over-reaction to last week's score, imo. Coming off scores of 13 and 12, they smack a disorganised Detroit with a few long balls and suddenly the total is 47.5 for a Sunday Night division game?!
We also have to remember that their D is going along ok, giving up just 19 ppg.
They are just 1-6-1 under as road favs inside the Div since 2002, probably for that very reason.
The Giants D has been pretty bad, but held Wash to just 14 FD's last week.
I expect a much more conservative game-plan from the Eagles this week...besides, they are 2-9 under in their last 11 after scoring 30+.
...I don't expect it be a total slug-fest, but getting the under above 47 here I do like.
NE -7
League: 9-29-1 (Av. loss 12.7) any 3+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win as away 3+ dog, with 30+ mins TOP. [Cinci]
2-10-1 (Av. loss 13.5) if opp is off a 7+ ats win.
1-7-1 (Av/ loss 13.7) as any home dog.
I just don't see how Cinci can keep up in this one. Can they force one punt? It's the no. 1 offense v. the 4th worst D...NE also happen to be the number 1 defense, so they should be able to get a couple of stops at least.
This may be the squarest of picks, but NE are just about the best team in football right now, and really should do some damage against this Cinci D.
They've done just that the last 2 meetings in Cinci, a 38-13 win last season @ -5.5, and 23-13 @ -2.5 in 2005.
The venue doesn't worry them, and I don't think anything else they see during the night will either.
Also like the GB/Minni over, but maybe hoping to get it at 37? :shrug:
Good luck as always to all.
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