Wk. 5.

[MrChristo]

13-10 (+2.62)

Starting to climb...Jax D hurt last week for a -2...

Washington @ Philli under 43 (1.95)

League: 0-11 under (Av. total 41.4...av. score 32.0) any dog off any ats win as a 7+ dog, if they had >34 mins TOP, and held opp to <50 yards rushing. [Wash]
(0-3 2007 inc. SB!...Min 0-34 @ GB, 40.5; Caro 13-20 @ Dallas, 42.5; NYG 17-14 NE, 41)

Redskins simply controlled Dallas last week, but they have now played 3 pretty poor D's...Philli have held (admittedly poor scoring) teams to 6 and 3 at home so far...
...and history says they will struggle to stop the opp's ground game 2 weeks in a row, or get as much going themselves.
Can't see too many big plays, esp. if Westbrook sits again.

Carolina v. KC under 38.5 (1.91)

League: 1-16 under (Av. total 37.9...av. score 29.9) 7+ dog off any ats win as home 7+ dog with 2 or more less TO's [KC]

Not sure how KC score here. They got 10 points last week from TO's and another 7 only due to an onside kick late from Denver...besides last week's explosion they hadn't topped 14.
Carolina playing some solid D and a pretty conservative, run first game plan shouldn't have them lighting it up too much either.

NYG v. Seattle over 43 (1.94)

League: 17-4 over (Av. total 45.5...av. score 55.8!) home 7+ fav, total >42.5 off a BYE, with a road game ahead. [NYG]
(SD 35-10 Tax @ 45.5, 2007)

Not entirely sure why this line has been dropping.
Big favs off a BYE are scoring machines...Seattle have given up less than 33 to only SL in 3 games!
They gave up 22.5 last year on the road, and 27 outside their crappy Div.
They have scored 30+ twice tho...and NY gave up 23 to a pretty average Cinci last game.
Can't see why there won't be points in this one.

Detroit v. Chicago over 44 (1.91)

League: 10-2 over (Av. total 45.0...av. score 51.8) home Div 3+ fav off a BYE, if total is 42.5+ [Det]

And, why won't there be points here?? Detroit giving them up for fun...37.7 on the season allowed!
...Time to give Orton some credit too, in 7 games starting he has av'd 25 ppg.
Detroit will score at home...av'd over 26 ppg last season, got 25 v. a pretty solid GB D so far this year.
Just about guarenteed to see 1, maybe 2 picks returned...
...low total for a Detroit game I would have thought.

Also liking NE and SD, but waiting to see where the lines end up.

Good Luck all

 

[baby johnson]

thanks mr c, letz hope things turn rosy for you. kinda like last years run would be soooooooooooo sweet :00hour

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks bj...

...don't worry, I'm hopin' too! :142smilie :toast:

SD -6 (1.92)

League: 10-1 (Av. win 16.7) any away fav, total 42.5+, off any ats win as away 7+ fav. [SD]
5-0 (Av. win 18.0) non-Div game ahead.

Doesn't matter how it happens...just that it does!
Rivers should have a big game...no. 1 in the NFL for ypp (9.3) up against the 3rd worst pass D (8.7 allowed), and as Oakland showed last week, it's tough to hold LT for the whole game!
'Fins were comfortably handled in the first 2 weeks...pretty sure SD won't be fooled by the "direct snap to RB who runs fast and straight" play...well, not 3 times anyway!
Better team, no look ahead game, get the job done.

NE -3 (1.84)

League: 14-3 (15-2 this no...av. win 11.6) any non-Conf fav off a BYE, if opp is off a 7+ ats loss with more TO's than their opp. [NE]
(4-0 in 2007)
8-0 (Av. win 13.2) with a non-Div game ahead.

49ers have won 2 games where they've held on to the ball (0 TO's v. Det...1 v. Seattle), but 3 and 5 in their 2 losses...
...and if any D will confuse an average QB...
I mean why would NE be fav's cross country after being totally blown out at home by one of the worst teams in the NFL??
Almost makes no sense...

 

[Hooks]

Looks solid Mate ! gotta get to work. Talk to you soon , Hooks

 

[Dizzayton]

Good luck to you. The picks look good on paper, and hopefully they will look good on the field tomorrow as well. I will be pulling for you as always.

 

[MrChristo]

Thankyou gentlemen.

Absolutely BOL to you both aswell. :toast:

Arizona -1

League: 0-15 SU (Av. loss 9.3) any dog, off a 7+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [Buff]

Buffalo have been very lucky to scrape the last 2 wins with big come back from behind games v. terrible teams really in Oakland and St. Louis...
...even the Jax win now doesn't look so good after Houston whacked them for 21 last week and probably should have won.
Arizona had SEVEN (7!) TO's last week, and still got to within 2 scores in the last...they play much better at home and should do enough to get the win here.

James more rushing yards than Lynch (2.10)

Maybe a bit silly, given the winning team will probably have the most rushing yards, but purely out of priciple I have to take this.
Wrong man favoured!
Sure, neither guy been exactly lighting it up...slight (but definate) advantage to the home guy here.
Zona allow less (101.2 @ 4.0) to Buff's 112.0 @ 4.2...and James is getting 3.9 on the season against an av. D of 3.6 (Jets 3.1, Miami 3.3), compared to Lynch 3.5 v. av. 4.1.
The price is based pretty much on last game...but Zona, in their only home game so far held Miami to 72 yards on 24 carries.
Like I said, wrong man favoured. Great price.

Norwood over 55.5 (1.72)

He's topped this number in 3 of 4 games so far, failing at TB where he went 6-18 against a team who alow 3.6 ypc.
GB allow 5.2, and have allowed TWO RB's each to top this number in 3 of 4 games (not at Detroit).
Not a great price, but looks like a winner.

Romo under 310.5 passing (1.83)

Cinci pass D is very under-rated atm.
Haven't gone close to allowing this many, and are equal 4th @ 5.8 ypp!
Sure, they've played some rubbish teams!...but because their run D is so bad it shouldn't get too much more of a test this week.
Romo 2-2 this number, highest being 320 v. Cleveland (10.0 ypp...they av. 7.4) and a 312 v. Philli @ 10.4 (Av. 7.0)in a close one.
2 better pass D's (GB @ 6.2 and Wash @ 6.5) gave up only 260 and 300 yards respectively...
...and just a comparison of Cinci to Cleveland...Baltimore (El Flacco) threw for 129 v. both, but 29 passes v. Cinci to just 19 v. Cleveland.
A legit play, but better still since Dallas will be up big early you'd think.

McLain/Rice over Johnson/White rushing & receivng yards (2.60)

Big price considering Baltimore's record v. the run at home...(Just two 100+ yard rushers in last 37 home games!), and Lewis is already talking about stuff this Titan team.
Basically I think the line is based on McLain alone, but with McGahee doubtful, sore at best, Rice should see some carries.
Tenn have played 3 pretty bad run D's, but last game v. Minni (2.9ypc) the two combined for 88 total yards...Baltimore allow just 3.1, with a biggest of just 11!
The Balti pair have topped out around the 90 mark last 2, but one being v. Pitts (2.9 ypc) with zero rushing from Rice...Tenn allow 3.7 and have allowed 4 rushes of 20 or more so far.
Interesting comparison since both teams have played Cinci...Titans (pair) gained 180 total and allowed 80 (88 rush, -8 pass!)...Balt gained 193 and allowed 73 (65 and 8).
I reckon this is dead set even money with Rice just catching passes, which alone makes the price a worthwhile shot...but if Rice gets carries due to McGahee then I think the wrong pair is favoured again.

Two props to come later on... kurby

:drinky:

 

[BadAngel]

GL Mr Christop, on Wash und, Ariz and NE myself. Lets bring them in.

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

GL with all your plays MrC :SIB

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys...

...that was a bit more like it!

8-3 (+5.08) for the day...Nice work Mr. McClain :toast:

Since it seem player bets are proping rolleyes: ) me up...

Frerotte over 215.5 (1.83)

Guess this line still has a bit of week 1 and 2 about it...
...Gus has thrown for 204 and 266 @ 7.3 and 6.2 respectively against 2 of the top 4 pass D's in the NFL!
Carolina give up 156 yards @ 5.4 (before this week), Tenn 172 @ 5.7...
...now he faces a NO team who give up 250 @ 7.2...and figures to be behind a fair chunk of the evening.
NO have given up 257 to JT O'Sullivan, 264 @ Denver, 321 @ Wash and 221 to a struggling Garcia in week 1.
Provided not too many go to the Saints, Gus should be able to get over 220 here at least.

[PS. You can't help but be impressed with line-makers...
...while looking for prop bets I saw; Orton most yards v. "Detroit QB's"...
...did they know something we didn't?! :shrug: ]

(Even so...why would you bench him, if he isn't legitimately injured?! Receivers drop balls left and right (and middle!)...watched the game, and didn't at all feel Kitna was playing particularly badly...
...then again, I still can't see how Orlovsky is no.2...just isn't up to it.
Stanton, as raw as he is, should be getting any time that Kitna isn't!)

...Sorry, more a frustrated Detroit fan than bitter about a lost 'over'...which was gone when Dan came in don't worry.

Anyway...er, go Gus! :toast:

 

[Scrapiron]

like the ferrote play and i am on it too. A little nervous about the saints run defense tho... The saints have a HORRIBLE run defense and if peterson gets on his horse and they cant stop him, that may take some yards off his passing totals. GL to us tho!! feel better about it with u on it.

 

[MrChristo]

Just about gift money, hey scrapiron... :mj07:

Watching Gus dodge and weave his way to 140 through 3/4's...
...only to finally get hit with a big one that knocks him out...
...only to launch a 2 step 'hoper' that 2 receivers thought it would be fun to be under at the same time! :142smilie

2 throws, 70 yards...thanks for comin' lol.

Oh well, 9-3 it is for the week. :mj06: