14-14 (-0.9) :shrug:
Atlanta @ SF under 41
SF D is flying atm, allowing just 3.1 ypc and and a 5th best 5.9 ypp, given up 16, 10, 0 and a highly unlucky 27 @ Minni, given 7 was from a 101 yard KO return, and the last second Favre 30 yard toss.
But, their offense has spluttered without Gore...Coffee just 54-25 @ Minni, but more of a concern just 74-24 last week v. SL...less than 250 total yards and just 14 offensive point...inc. zero rushing TD's in the last 2 weeks.
The only game Atl have topped 20 in, was v. a league worst Carolina run D, and just 10 on the road @ NE last game.
Amazingly, the Falcons are 0-12 under in their last 12 non-playoff games after a BYE, and this one sets up as a low scorer as well.
Denver v. NE under 41
League: 1-11 under (Av. total 40.2...av. score 32.5) as any road fav, off an ats win as home (-3 to +3), if opp is off a 7+ ats win. [NE]
Denver defense! Allowing 6.5 ppg inc. holding a pretty solid Dallas to 10 last week...
NE totals have been inflated due to a lot of TO's and strange late game happenings...They are giving up just 14 offensive ppg, and look likely to be the best D the Broncos have faced so far.
Denver happy to run first, check down second and play solid D...looks a high total for them.
Baltimore -8
League: 3-11-2 (Av. loss 14.8) road 7+ dog of an OT as any 3+ fav. [Cinci]
1-8-2 inside Conf...and 0-4-1 if they lost last meeting by 7+ ats.
Tough spot for Cinci, and I think last week showed a bit about where they are really at anyway. A good win @ GB (although 6 sacks and 140+ on the ground won't happen here either)...the Pittsburgh win they were out-played...100 less yards, a pick 7...just 25 mins TOP...
Ravens have been just the opposite...and 2 things I do like about Balti this week is a total domination of Cleveland at home, and their willingness to run up scores! 27-3 up with 8 minutes to go in that game they were still throwing downfield...TD's late v. KC.
As I said, 140+ rushing v. GB won't happen v. the number 1 rush D in the NFL (59 @ 2.6), and the Bunglers have av'd just (wait for it!) 12 offensive ppg in the other 3!
We'll see how Palmer does with it all in his hands...I don't think they can keep up.
Russell under 162.5 passing yards. (1.83)
The worst QB in the league...completes just 40% of passes...4.8 ypp...has thrown for more than 130 in just 1 game so far, and even that was a 12/30 performance in week 1!
Now facing the best pass D in the NFL...NYG allowing an amazing 115 yards @ 4.6 ypp!! Yeah, they had a soft schedule...but Oakland is as soft as they come.
Held Romo to 13/29 127...the only QB who has thrown for more is Campbell...but surprisingly Washington rank in the top 8 for both ypp and %.
Again, Oakland are dead last. 120 yards in the air will be a good effort this week.
Schaub OVER 270.5 passing (1.83)
Just going against a pretty awful Zona pass D...well, that's not entirely true, their solid run D (79 @ 3.1) is forcing teams to throw...which they are! At 280 ypg, 8.0 ypp.
They gave up 23/42 282 to Gerrard, who av's 228 @ 6.0 on the season;
30/52 332 to Manning (330 @ 9.8)...even 18/31 209 to Hill who av's just 156 @ 6.5 on the season...
...Houston av. 249 @ 8.1, so better than Jax.
Schaub threw for 300+ v. both the Jags (282 @ 7.5) and Titans (282 @ 8.1)...Cards give up 280 @ 8.0 as I said.
Two more in the same game, which I think (hope!) aren't too intertwined...
D. Williams OVER 71.5 rushing (1.83)
This looks to be a game where Carolina will get back to what they do best...pound the ball.
The good news for Williams is Stewart is questionable with an achilles injury, so even if he does play I expect less carries than usual.
Panthers going @ a respectable 4.3 ypr...Williams had 16/79 v. Atlanta and 64 on just 11 carries @ Dallas.
Washington giving up 4.3 also...Caddy had 16/77 against them (TB av. exactly 4.3 ypc too)...SMith 16/101 for Detroit and Jackson 17/104 for SL...Bradshaw and Jacobs combined for over 100 in week 1...
...which could be the problem here, but I expect that is he gets 16 carries it'll be enough.
[Av'd 17 per game last season, Stewart 11.5]
Campbell -20.5 passing v. Delhomme (2.70)
Be no means a 'winner'...but don't see this as being any worse than an even money shot.
Pretty sure the price is based on a couple of things...
1) Carolina's NFL worst run D, so expecting Portis to carry the load...but Washington have already played 3 teams 20th or worse in run D (TB, Det and SL) and Campbell has covered the -20 v. opposing QB's each time.
2) The public perception that Washington's offense is terrible...the scoring part is for sure!...but they are 15th for passing yards (225) and 8th for ypp (7.7) and %, so they have success when they do decide to throw.
They also have the 4th best passing D in the NFL, allowing 173 @ 6.3, so Delhomme 23rd (192 @ 6.2) in passing could really struggle here anyway...
Given the Panthers are favs, and therefore (theoretically of course!) likely to be in front at some point at least, so if Campbell gets the green light to throw, I think the numbers show that he would be in fact better than an even chance to cover. :0corn
Good Luck all
Atlanta @ SF under 41
SF D is flying atm, allowing just 3.1 ypc and and a 5th best 5.9 ypp, given up 16, 10, 0 and a highly unlucky 27 @ Minni, given 7 was from a 101 yard KO return, and the last second Favre 30 yard toss.
But, their offense has spluttered without Gore...Coffee just 54-25 @ Minni, but more of a concern just 74-24 last week v. SL...less than 250 total yards and just 14 offensive point...inc. zero rushing TD's in the last 2 weeks.
The only game Atl have topped 20 in, was v. a league worst Carolina run D, and just 10 on the road @ NE last game.
Amazingly, the Falcons are 0-12 under in their last 12 non-playoff games after a BYE, and this one sets up as a low scorer as well.
Denver v. NE under 41
League: 1-11 under (Av. total 40.2...av. score 32.5) as any road fav, off an ats win as home (-3 to +3), if opp is off a 7+ ats win. [NE]
Denver defense! Allowing 6.5 ppg inc. holding a pretty solid Dallas to 10 last week...
NE totals have been inflated due to a lot of TO's and strange late game happenings...They are giving up just 14 offensive ppg, and look likely to be the best D the Broncos have faced so far.
Denver happy to run first, check down second and play solid D...looks a high total for them.
Baltimore -8
League: 3-11-2 (Av. loss 14.8) road 7+ dog of an OT as any 3+ fav. [Cinci]
1-8-2 inside Conf...and 0-4-1 if they lost last meeting by 7+ ats.
Tough spot for Cinci, and I think last week showed a bit about where they are really at anyway. A good win @ GB (although 6 sacks and 140+ on the ground won't happen here either)...the Pittsburgh win they were out-played...100 less yards, a pick 7...just 25 mins TOP...
Ravens have been just the opposite...and 2 things I do like about Balti this week is a total domination of Cleveland at home, and their willingness to run up scores! 27-3 up with 8 minutes to go in that game they were still throwing downfield...TD's late v. KC.
As I said, 140+ rushing v. GB won't happen v. the number 1 rush D in the NFL (59 @ 2.6), and the Bunglers have av'd just (wait for it!) 12 offensive ppg in the other 3!
We'll see how Palmer does with it all in his hands...I don't think they can keep up.
Russell under 162.5 passing yards. (1.83)
The worst QB in the league...completes just 40% of passes...4.8 ypp...has thrown for more than 130 in just 1 game so far, and even that was a 12/30 performance in week 1!
Now facing the best pass D in the NFL...NYG allowing an amazing 115 yards @ 4.6 ypp!! Yeah, they had a soft schedule...but Oakland is as soft as they come.
Held Romo to 13/29 127...the only QB who has thrown for more is Campbell...but surprisingly Washington rank in the top 8 for both ypp and %.
Again, Oakland are dead last. 120 yards in the air will be a good effort this week.
Schaub OVER 270.5 passing (1.83)
Just going against a pretty awful Zona pass D...well, that's not entirely true, their solid run D (79 @ 3.1) is forcing teams to throw...which they are! At 280 ypg, 8.0 ypp.
They gave up 23/42 282 to Gerrard, who av's 228 @ 6.0 on the season;
30/52 332 to Manning (330 @ 9.8)...even 18/31 209 to Hill who av's just 156 @ 6.5 on the season...
...Houston av. 249 @ 8.1, so better than Jax.
Schaub threw for 300+ v. both the Jags (282 @ 7.5) and Titans (282 @ 8.1)...Cards give up 280 @ 8.0 as I said.
Two more in the same game, which I think (hope!) aren't too intertwined...
D. Williams OVER 71.5 rushing (1.83)
This looks to be a game where Carolina will get back to what they do best...pound the ball.
The good news for Williams is Stewart is questionable with an achilles injury, so even if he does play I expect less carries than usual.
Panthers going @ a respectable 4.3 ypr...Williams had 16/79 v. Atlanta and 64 on just 11 carries @ Dallas.
Washington giving up 4.3 also...Caddy had 16/77 against them (TB av. exactly 4.3 ypc too)...SMith 16/101 for Detroit and Jackson 17/104 for SL...Bradshaw and Jacobs combined for over 100 in week 1...
...which could be the problem here, but I expect that is he gets 16 carries it'll be enough.
[Av'd 17 per game last season, Stewart 11.5]
Campbell -20.5 passing v. Delhomme (2.70)
Be no means a 'winner'...but don't see this as being any worse than an even money shot.
Pretty sure the price is based on a couple of things...
1) Carolina's NFL worst run D, so expecting Portis to carry the load...but Washington have already played 3 teams 20th or worse in run D (TB, Det and SL) and Campbell has covered the -20 v. opposing QB's each time.
2) The public perception that Washington's offense is terrible...the scoring part is for sure!...but they are 15th for passing yards (225) and 8th for ypp (7.7) and %, so they have success when they do decide to throw.
They also have the 4th best passing D in the NFL, allowing 173 @ 6.3, so Delhomme 23rd (192 @ 6.2) in passing could really struggle here anyway...
Given the Panthers are favs, and therefore (theoretically of course!) likely to be in front at some point at least, so if Campbell gets the green light to throw, I think the numbers show that he would be in fact better than an even chance to cover. :0corn
Good Luck all
