Wk. 6.

[MrChristo]

12-12-1 (+0.78)

Back in black....and the less said about a teaser that loses by a combined 51 points the better, huh! :mj07:

SD @ Oaktown under 50.5 (1.96)

Not sure where this total has come from.
Oakland haven't topped 20 in their last 9 games, so not sure why they're expected to start against a pretty good SD defense.
There have been questions over the Charger secondary, but holding the explosive Steelers (who were averaging over 11 ypp!) to 207 yards on 26 attempts was a decent effort.
Besides, Collins is completing only 55% of his passes, so they shouldn't have too big of a day.
Both teams are playing tough run D (3.7 & 3.4 y/c), and Oakland have converted just 28.6% of 3rd downs so far.
Last year's meeting in Oakland was 17-23 without anything unusual happening.


Carolina @ Detroit under 41.5 (1.99)

How did Detroit score 35 last week? No, really?
Take out the last 'meaningless' 77 yard TD run by Bryson, and they somehow managed 28 from;
Harrington 10-23-97 yards, and 2.5 y/rush!! :scared
Carolina's run D is one of the best in the NFL, allowing just 3.3 ypc, it's their pass D that has been awful...But if there's one team that won't be able to take advantange, then surely it's Detroit!
Harrington throwing at 50% for just 4.87 ypp (only Chicago and Houston worse), and 3 of their best receivers likely out of this game.
On the other side, the Lions' D has been solid.
Carolina managed just 24 points v. Arizona last week, and 7 of those were a gift.
Just can't see Detroit getting lucky 2 weeks in a row.

Liking 3 more games at this stage, but waiting for some better lines

 

[mjalam]

gotta agree with the under...raiders will stop the run and we know they like to run almost every fuk'n down even though they have so many deep threats

clock should be tick'n the whole time


best of luck

 

[MrChristo]

lol! Ahhh...the frustrations of having a conservative coach, ay? Cheers, mjalam :thumb:

Chicago v. Minni under 37 (2.01)

Will take this one now at a nice price.
The Bears have averaged just 15.5 ppg, and that includes a rediculous 38 v. Detroit...It included a punt return and an INT returned for TD's.
They, of course, have one of the best D's in the NFL, allowing just 3.1 ypr and 5.8 ypp.
Minni aren't the same team as previous years. They have only averaged 16 ppg, which includes a 33 point effort at home v. a horrible NO team.
A combination of a poor running game, receivers that aren't getting it done and a hobbled Culpepper is all combining to really hurt the Minni offense.
Chicago figure to run and run some more in this one, control the game and take advantage of Minni's poor run D.
They should be able to put together some long, time consuming drives, and limit the Vikings' scoring at the other end.

 

[MrChristo]

NYG @ Dallas under 47 (2.02)

Purely a trend pick....All in the Match-Up forum for all to see

 

[Stabler-12]

Please use caution whenever you are thinking under and the Chargers are involved. They are capable of putting 40 pts up by themselves. Add to that the big play capabilities of the Raiders and you have a recipe for some points. Just my 2 cents. Good Luck

 

[Clem D]

Lean to all your totals.. Good luck

 

[FirstnGoal]

Good Luck!

 

[ajoytoy]

plays look solid Mr. C

gl

 

[MrChristo]

Cleveland +6 (1.98)

League: 1-7-2 (1-9 this no...Av. LOSS 1.5) any fav of 7 or less off a 14+ ats loss as a dog of 3 or less, if opp last won ats as a fav. [Balt] (0-1 SU last season)

I think this line is based on the Ravens' reputation alone.
They have averaged just 11.7 ppg so far, and it's not like they've played a tough defensive schedule.
Teams are stacking the box, taking away the running game, and making Wright throw the ball...and the only team he has managed to beat is the Jets with a 3rd string QB.
And, with Ricard and Heap unlikely this week things only figure to get worse.
Dilfer and the Cleveland offense have been surprising good so far. They pass for 7.28 per attempt and are 9th overall in passing yards...and they've against 4 teams who are all in the top 11 for pass D...so there's no reason why they won't do the same this week.
Droughns also ran for 4.2 ypc against a tough Chicago D last week.
Anyway, 6 points is a lot to give a team who has just 5 TD's so far! Like the Brownies to keep this one close.

 

[devilfan02]

Agree on the SD under. Don't think Oak will stop the run- LT's gonna run all over them. He's owned them the past two times they've played and its not stoppin this weekend.

 

[MrChristo]

Cinci -3 (2.05)

The more I look at this game, the more I'm convinced that it is as good as it looks.
It's tough to take Cinci as a big fav because of their poor run D, but only laying a FG looks more than fair.

In fact...(I feel a trend coming on! )...

Since 1992, any away fav off a 3- SU loss as an away dog is 20-0 SU!!!...15-4-1 ats, BUT, the average line is -4....They are actually 17-0-3 laying only the FG.
So happy to take the -3, esp. at a good price.

The Tenn defense is just horrible (allow 4.5 y/rush, 7.5 y/pass @ 69.4%!), so Palmer should be able to move the ball at will.
Statistically, Cinci are very similar to Indi, who went to Tenn as -7 and won 31-10.
Cinci have played some pretty bad teams early, but Tenn only have 2 wins for the year, against probably two of the worst offensive teams in the NFL, and they look to be pretty bad themselves!

 

[MrChristo]

Washington +6 (1.89)

League: 15-30-1 (Av. win 1.1) home fav of 7 of less off a BYE, if opp is off an ats win. [KC]
3-13 (Av. LOSS 0.8) if opp won ats away. (1-4 last season)
League: 27-16-1 (Av. loss 3.3) away dog of 7 or less off a SU loss of 3 or less as an away dog of 7 or less. [Wash] (3-0 in 2004, 2-0 this season...Atl +2 @ Buff, Seattle +3 @ SL)


KC have only allowed less than 20 points twice in their last 10 games...and (I guess not surprisingly?) those 2 games are the only 2 they?ve won ats.
But, even the Jets gained more yards, but had an INT and 7 fumbles!
KC are easily the worst defensive team that Washington have faced so far this season, so I expect them to be able to put some points on the board.
If they score 20, can KC score 26 on this D to cover? I don?t think so.

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

GL with the plays this week MrC. I am going to have to take a peep at that NYG/DAL under

 

[MrChristo]

Denver -3 (1.87)

League: 21-15 (Av. win 6.8) home fav of 7 or less off a SU win of 3 or less as a home fav of 7 or less. [Denv]
14-3 (Av. win 9.5) if opp is off any ats win. (4-0 if total 40+)
9-1 (Av. win 8.1) if opp last won ats as fav.

As silly as it sounds in a NE game, only one team can play defense in this one. With NE?s defensive personel problems they?ve allowed 20+ in all 5 games this season @ 27.2 ppg.
They out-scored Atlanta last week by getting their ground game going, but that will be much tougher against Denver who allow just 3.8 y/rush.
And that?s where Denver have a huge advantage. They gain 4.8 y/rush (to NE?s 3.2), and SD showed what will happen if you control the ground game and force NE to become one dimentional.

...Also...

"The league is 16-0 ATS since week 14 2000 at home when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a win in which they allowed at least 100 passing yards more than their season-to-date average?as long as the OU line is higher than 35 and less than 55." So winning a game in which they allowed a lot of passing yards is not a negative indicator. It is a strong positive indicator. PLAY: Denver.

and...

Brady was a stellar 22-of-27 against the Falcons, but the Patriots are 0-6 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since week 15, 1999 on the road the week after a game in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average

Right then...I think that's it (unless someone can talk me into playing Buffalo in the afternoon!)

Thanks for the comments guys...Good Luck to us all

 

[BuffaloBill]

Washington is not as good as you think.

Look at who they have played and look at the scores.

Last week was the first decent full game that they played, and they were lucky to even be in it at the end.

Got a few lucky penalties.

Plus, Denver was probably taking them lightly, as they were thinking about this week against Patsies.

KC needs a win badly, and they get it here.

 

[bombercoops]

BB, couldn't agree more that "KC needs a win badly", but they still have to cover the number, if in fact they do win. Washington have an uncanny way of hanging in games, and it's there 'D' they can thank for it. This is the NFL, anything can happen and usually does. Not touching this game myself but I like the stats you use to back your plays christo! Strong trend in the denver game which may have saved me the $$ I was going to lay on the champs.

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

NYG @ Dallas under 47 (2.02)

Purely a trend pick....All in the Match-Up forum for all to see

Great call on that trend MrC :clap:

 

[MrChristo]

Great call on that trend MrC :clap:

haha. Thanks, 60...I'm not sure if it's a good thing or not if the easiest play of the day wasn't specifically mine! :shrug: :mj14:

but 6-2 (+3.9) for the day, can't (won't!) complain, for sure!

S.L. +13.5 (1.94)

I'm not sold on this 'brilliant' new Indi defense...

They've played;
Baltimore (25th in total O, 31st for scoring)
Jacksonville (22nd, 22nd)
Cleveland (16th, 23rd)
Tennessee (23rd, 15th)
& San Fran (31st, 25th)

St. Louis are 2nd in total O and 4th in scoring.

Another worrying stat for Indi is their run D. So far not one of their opponents has averaged 4 y/rush, yet Indi have allowed 4.5 y/r!
The Rams av. 4.1, so they should be able to do some damage on the ground.
It's always tough to take a big fav who can't stop the run, and already this season we've seen Indi fail to cover twice at home and Cinci home to Houston lose ats.

League: 0-10 (Av. LOSS 2.9) home 10+ fav off 7+ ats win as 7+ fav, if opp off any ats loss as fav. [Indi] (Av. line -12.5)

Indi are being hugely over-rated here, and the Rams are being under-rated off a loss last week.

If Indi couldn't be bother covering against Cleveland or Jax, I can't see why they'd want to run up a score in this one.

Good Luck all