Wk. 6.

[MrChristo]

22-13 (+8.53) ...and things are lookin' up. :0corn

Miami @ Houston under 46 (1.90)

League: 1-14 under (Av. total 42.9...av. score 34.0!) on the road, total >40.5, off a 10+ ats win as non-Div home dog with 34+ mins TOP. [Mia]
(Atl 13-20 Tenn @ 40.5; Min 0-34 GB @ 40.5 in 2007)
0-11 under (Av. score 30.0) if last game went under.

Took this one early, looks like I got a good number...
Miami just playing some solid D rght now...esp. on the ground, allowing just 3.3 ypc.
Their problem has been through the air (@ 'Zona), but Houston throwing for just 6.6 ypp, Schaub just 6.3 even.
Of course, the 'Fins aren't so talented on the other side of the ball...take out direct catch and run v. an insanely dopey NE and they haven't topped 17 for the year.
Oilers effectively held Indi to 17 in their FIRST home game of the season last week!!
If Miami can get to 17, can Houston hit 30? I doubt it.

Indi v. Balt under 39 (1.92)

League: 0-10 under (Av. total 42.7...av. score 29.5!) home 3+ fav off a 1-3 ats win as away 3+ fav, if opp had 34+ mins TOP. [Indi]

It is a Ravens game after all! The only game they've had top 38 had just 480 total yards!
They are playing some amzing D tho, allowing just 2.8 ypc and 4.9 ypp!! :scared
Indi have done precious little so far...got off the hook big time last week with 14 bonus points.
Can't see the Colts getting much going, and Baltimore will be happy to pound away at the league's worst run D (188.5 ypg).
No meltdowns, this one stays under.

Oakland @ NO over 47 (1.95)

League: 15-3 over (Av. total 40.5...av. score 48.9) home 7+ fav off a 1-3 SU loss as home 3+ fav. [NO]
(2-0 so far 2008! Sea v. SL and Dal v. Cinci)
8-0 (Av. score 54.8) off any 1-3 SU home loss if total is >42.5.
(Team av's 35.4 ppg and is 8-0 SU)

It seems teams coming off close losses decide scoring is their best idea!
And, shouldn't be that hard against a Raiders team allowing over 25 ppg...31ppg if we take out KC's dismal effort!
They have been surprisingly effective on offense too, and should have some success against a NO run D allowing 4.5 ypc...
...but this one is all about NO scoring.
Oakland in a 5-0 over (0-5 ats) spot themselves where big non-Div dogs with a non-Div game ahead allow 37.4 ppg!
I just think the over is the safer play given NO have allowed both TB and SF to score freely and keep it close.
Either way, 38-10 will do. kurby

TB -1 (1.91)

League: 6-15-3 (Av. loss 5.4) away (-3 to +3) off a 21+ ats win as a 7+ fav. [Caro]
1-13-3 (Av. loss 7.9) if they had 150+ yards rushing.

Carolina off an incredibly easy game last week, but now face a TB run D that s allowing <100 ypg, and just 66 at home(@2.9)!
On the flip side, the Bucs are running for 5.3 ypc which is the NFL's 3rd best, and who-ever controls the ground, usually wins the game.
Just don't think Carolina have the offense to keep in this game...they played a great run D @ Minni and lost 10-20...another solid D at home v. Chicago they snuck home late with, with about 20 less yards and only 12 FD's!
TB have won both home games relatively easily, no reason it won't be 3-0.

Det @ Minni under 45.5 (1.97)

League: 2-7-1 (0-10 under this no...av. score 33.3) any 10+ fav off a 1-3 SU win as away dog. [Min] (10-0 SU...hold teams to 6.0 ppg!)
League: 2-9-1 under (0-11 this no...av. score 32.5) 10+ dog off a 21+ ats loss as home 3+ dog with <28 mins TOP. [Det]
(0-8 SU...1-7 ats...with <26 mins TOP...av. score 9.1 ppg)

So, how do Detroit score?? Really? Kitna looks doubtful...If Orlovski plays the under is an absolute certainty!!...he can't throw the ball down field, but is accurate enough short not to give it up...
...and Minni allowing just 1.8 ypc at home!! :scared :scared
Lions have scred 20 in the last 2 weeks...only got a TD last week from a Chicago fumble.
Minni offense hasn't scored more than 23 all season, will be happy to run, run, run and run in this one...hopefully Det can play some kind of defense...
...12 looks a lot to cover for a teams who score almost 50% more FG's than TD...and they might have to score all 45 to get this one over.

SL @ Wash over 44 (1.93)

League: 17-8 over (Av. total 40.4...av. score 46.7) non-Div 7+ dog of a BYE with a non-Div game ahead. [SL]
6-0 (Av. score 54.5) if a 10+ dog. (Allow 34.3 ppg)

Same spot as Oakland, same problem as Oakland, only worse...They are giving up over 36 ppg!!
Take out week 1 under a new coach v. the defending SB Champs, and the Washington offense has been cruising along, scoring 23+ in the last 4 weeks...Campbell the 8th highest rated QB, with zero INT's...
Again, the Rams should only need to score 14 here to tip this one over.


Definately like one more game, but hopig for a slightly better number...
...and pretty big trends on a Cinci/Jets under (45), but that one is going to be a bit tougher to take...
...although it does have prop bet written all over it :toast:

Good Luck all

 

[Hooks]

My Mate is heating up ya'll !!!

 

[MrChristo]

Derek Anderson under 205.5 yards passing (1.83)

Low number, but nowhere ner as low as the rest of his season has been so far!!
138 v. Cinci, 125 v. Balt, 166 v. Pits and 114 v. Dallas!!
There are some good pass D's in that lot, but the Giants are up there with the best, allowing just 154 ypg @ 5.8 ypp. (Better in both categories than all 3 other than Balt.)
Besides the solid D they are facing, simply having the ball will be a problem. The Giants av. over 34 mins TOP (2nd in NFL), Browns just 27:15 (4th worst)
Anderson really struggling after a big year last year, and let's faace it, who's going to be surprised if he gets pulled for Quinn after a couple of early picks...

 

[MrChristo]

Philli @ San Fran under 43 (1.91)

League: 3-13-1 under (1-16 this no...av. total 39.1...av. score 34.1) away non-Div 3+ fav, off a 10+ ats loss as any fav with <26 mins TOP and 100 yards rushing. [Phil]
0-8 under (Av. score 29.6) if opp is also off a non-Div game.

The Eagles offense is really spluttering without Westbrook at 100%...will miss this week (also Reggie Brown out)...
The first 2 games McNabb av'd 9.2 ypp...last 3 he's down to 6.2 without the big time run threat.
They were completely blanketed at home last week, just 254 yards and 10 offensive points.
San Fran were even worse...just 12 FD's and under 200 total yards.
I think they'll struggle again, with Philli holding teams to just 3.3 ypr on the ground...they've had 2 BIG scores against terrible D's, but just 51 total points in the other 3...and this is arguably their toughest test yet.

 

[Old School]

good stuff as usual

Minn. at Chic. next week also..


Vikes will be lookin' to get in and out of this one in a hurry...


lastest from Det on QB's

note the dialogue suggesting that Det. wants to keep starter a secret but yet Kitna can't practice..Backup here[see Christo's comment]will be hard pressed to post a 20 spot

October 11, 2008


Kitna, Marinelli keep quiet on QB's status

BY GEORGE SIPPLE
FREE PRESS SPORTS WRITER

After missing practice the past three days with a back problem, it might take a miracle for Lions quarterback Jon Kitna to play Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings. It has happened before.

In September 2007, Kitna suffered a concussion in the second quarter against the Vikings at Ford Field and left the game. He returned in the fourth quarter and led the Lions to a 20-17 overtime victory.

"It was a miracle," Kitna said a day after that victory. "I've never felt anything like that, and for it to clear up and go right back to normal as I can be, is nothing short of a miracle."

Kitna, listed as doubtful for Sunday, didn't say much to reporters Friday, although he seemed to be moving better than he had in previous days.

"I can't comment," Kitna said. "Sorry, guys."
Coach Rod Marinelli confirmed that Kitna saw a back specialist Friday morning, but he also wouldn't say much about Kitna's status for Sunday.

"I really probably shouldn't talk to the media today," Kitna said. "I can't be honest and truthful."

Dan Orlovsky, a fifth-round pick in 2005, likely will get his first NFL start if Kitna can't play. Orlovsky and Drew Stanton, a second-round pick in 2007, have been sharing most of the snaps in practice.

"He's got a lot of energy and stuff to him," Marinelli said of Orlovsky. "He's had a good week of practice."


Would Marinelli feel comfortable with Kitna playing Sunday, after not practicing all week?

"Anybody -- you know, when a guy doesn't practice you're obviously uncomfortable," Marinelli said. "Of course you'd like the guy to have plenty of reps."

If Kitna is healthy, would he start?

"I can't answer that for you right now," Marinelli said. "I don't want to tell you something and you guys write it and I made you wrong. I'd rather just keep going and wait till Sunday."

Center Dominic Raiola said he thinks Orlovsky is ready and that playing on the road could help him.

"Having Dan back there, everybody's kind of rallying around him," Raiola said. "It's a lot more positive. Everybody wants to see him succeed. We also want to get this thing on the right track."

Orlovsky said if he does get the chance, he's ready. He knows it will take his best effort to beat the Vikings.

"We're really just going to have to go out as an offense and play well, 11 guys every single snap," Orlovsky said. "We can't have 15, 20 snaps where some guy messes up or does the wrong thing or forgets what to do. You can't beat this team in Minnesota that way.

"We'll have to play our best game to give ourselves a chance offensively. Whoever's at quarterback's going to have to play a really good game to have an opportunity to win."

ON THE RUN: Vikings second-year running back Adrian Peterson is coming off one of his worst rushing performances of his career -- 32 yards on 21 carries in a 30-27 victory over the Saints on Monday. He'll face a Lions defense that ranks 30th among the NFL's 32 teams against the run.

Middle linebacker Paris Lenon had a simple explanation for what the Lions need to do to stop Peterson: "We have to do our job. You say we had problems against the run, a lot of that has been our doing. He's a great back. Chester Taylor's a great back. But if you do the things you're supposed to, keying the run and tackling and having more than one person at the ball at all times, you have a chance."

NOTEBOOK: Calvin Johnson (knee) and Roy Williams (hip) did not practice Friday and are listed as questionable, along with cornerback Travis Fisher (knee). Williams said he would play Sunday. When asked about the receivers, Marinelli said: "I think they'll be fine. I think so, yeah."

Contact GEORGE SIPPLE at 313-223-4796 or gsipple@freepress.com.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

gl with the plays mate :SIB

 

[MrChristo]

Lions quarterback Jon Kitna will not play Sunday at Minnesota because of back problems, the team announced Saturday night.


Quarterback Drew Henson has been elevated from the practice squad and likely will be the backup for Dan Orlovsky, who is expected to make his first NFL start.

Really like this under now...line dropping but still plenty of 45's I can see.

Thanks OS and 60 sec...hope everything goes to plan for you guys also. :toast:

Favre under 254.5 passing (1.90)

Gunna keep the faith with the under-rated Cinci pass D here.
They haven't let anyone near this number yet (Manning had just 206 in reg.) for a few reasons...
1) Their run D is so bad there's no great need to throw,
2) They are usually so far behind there's no great reason to throw,
3) When teams do throw, they are actually quite good, allowing just 6.1 ypp.
Held Manning to 6.7 when he av's 7.8 on the season, Romo went for just 176 @ 7.6 (Av. 268 @ 8.4!)...
...Favre (surprisingly :shrug: ) throwing for just 221 a game @ 7.4
He's topped this number in their last 2, but SD allowing the most passing yards in the NFL (he threw 42 times!), and got caught up in a shoot-out with an old gun-slinger last game, against the Cards who allow 7.8 anyway.
Tough to see this game being close with Fitzpatrick at the helm, means lots more Tom Jones than Brett Favre.

:drinky:

 

[AR182]

mr c...

you have really great info every week...

keep up the great work & good luck

 

[Dizzayton]

Good luck this week Mr. Christo.