18-12-2 (+5.22)
San Diego -5 (2.02)
League: 8-1 (av. win 18.9!!) away 3+ fav off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [SD] (1-0 last season. Indi 28-3 SF @ -15!)
League: 4-10-1 (Av. loss 6.8) any home dog off a 21+ ats loss as away 7- dog, if opp is off an ats win. [KC] (push last season. GB 17-24 Chic @ +7)
I don't care where this game is being played, SD are by far the better team. I have to laugh at all the ESPN 'experts' who are still not convinced about them (and still have Indi as the no. 1 team in the AFC lol!!!)...
...I realise they have beaten some poor teams, but they haven't just beaten them, they've wiped them off the field!
KC showed more of their true form last week, and they will struggle to get anything going against this SD D, who allow <4.0 y/rush and and NFL best 4.89 y/pass.
Also their defense is not as good as it might appear after having a pretty soft early schedule themselves.
I think SD win this one by a TD or more.
(SD are 18-3-1 last 22 v. losing teams!!)
Pittsburgh @ Atlanta over 37 (1.94)
League: 13-2-1 over (Av. total 36.4...av. score 45.6) any home dog, off a 14+ ats loss as home fav, if total <40. [Atl] (1-0 over last season. NO 17-20 Chic @ 34)
League: 13-2 over (Av. total 37.7...av. score 44.6) any away fav, off a 21+ ats win as home 3+ fav, if total is <40, and opp is off any ats loss. [Pits] (1-0 over this season. KC 23-20 'Zona @ 40)
...That's a combined 26-4-1 over spot!!
Pittsburgh finally got things together last week, and running up 41 on KC. They have topped 37 in 3 of 5 games so far, the 2 they didn't they were playing two very good run D's (Jax and SD), who both allow <4 y/rush.
Atlanta allow 4.2, but allow 259 yards on 38 attempts last week!! so there's no reason why Parker won't get on track here too.
There were 41 points scored in that game last week, but could have easily been more as there were INT's at both ends within scoring range.
Atl are actually 7-1-1 over in their last 9 at home, so they do play an uptempo style of game in the dome.
Cinci v. Carolina under 44 (1.97)
Carolina ML (~2.55)
League: 2-12-1 under (av. total 39.2...av. score 32.9!) as a fav of 3 or less off a 3- SU loss as away 3+ fav. [Cinci] ***
(0-7 under (Av. total 42.7...av. score 31.8!!!) if total >40!)
0-8-1 under (Av. total 39.6...av. score 29.2!!) if opp is off any ats win.
*** They are also 2-13 ats (Av. LOSS 3.0) in this situation, scoring just 14.9 ppg.
Cinci's offense is running more on reputation than anything else atm. Their o-line is struggling with their starting centre already out, now their left tackle is out too.
Henry is out suspended and Washington is ?? with a hamstring. No wonder they have score just 13 points in both of their last 2 games...and they scored 14 points late off Pits turnovers to make them look more potent than they really were in that game.
They couldn't get anything going on the ground last week against a Bucs team that had been leaking yards, so they will definately have problems against Carolina.
Both teams really struggle to convert 3rd down...Caro @ 24.3% and Cinci @ 32.3%...Caro allow just 26.3% tho, and Cinci 37.1%.
Both teams av. just 17 FD's a game, run at <4 y/rush and both have struggled in the red zone with a combined 22 TD's and 22 FG's.
Both teams will struggle to score, but Carolina will come up with more big plays and are great value to win SU, imo.
Arizona -3 (1.91)
League: 13-1-1 (Av. win 11.5!) away 3- fav, off any ats win but SU loss. [Zona] (1-0 this season. Cleveland 24-21 Oakland @ -2.5!)
I think it makes perfect sense here. Everyone is being down on the Cards as losers for blowing the game on Monday night...but the fact is that they performed FAR better than they were "supposed" to, got out to a big lead early, and still covered the spread by over 10 points, despite losing after some freaky plays.
Oakland are still Oakland!! They've scored just 5 offensive TD's all season, and throw for just 4.5 y/pass.
Also...
League: 7-16 (Av. loss 4.2) home 3- dog off an ats win but SU loss as away 10+ dog. [Oak] (0-1 last season. Balt 9-21 Cinci @ +3)
1-7 (Av. loss 7.0) if opp won 10+ ats last game.
Arizona are just the better team, playing better football in this one. No need to over think this one too much.
Good Luck all
San Diego -5 (2.02)
League: 8-1 (av. win 18.9!!) away 3+ fav off a 10+ ats win as away 7+ fav. [SD] (1-0 last season. Indi 28-3 SF @ -15!)
League: 4-10-1 (Av. loss 6.8) any home dog off a 21+ ats loss as away 7- dog, if opp is off an ats win. [KC] (push last season. GB 17-24 Chic @ +7)
I don't care where this game is being played, SD are by far the better team. I have to laugh at all the ESPN 'experts' who are still not convinced about them (and still have Indi as the no. 1 team in the AFC lol!!!)...
...I realise they have beaten some poor teams, but they haven't just beaten them, they've wiped them off the field!
KC showed more of their true form last week, and they will struggle to get anything going against this SD D, who allow <4.0 y/rush and and NFL best 4.89 y/pass.
Also their defense is not as good as it might appear after having a pretty soft early schedule themselves.
I think SD win this one by a TD or more.
(SD are 18-3-1 last 22 v. losing teams!!)
Pittsburgh @ Atlanta over 37 (1.94)
League: 13-2-1 over (Av. total 36.4...av. score 45.6) any home dog, off a 14+ ats loss as home fav, if total <40. [Atl] (1-0 over last season. NO 17-20 Chic @ 34)
League: 13-2 over (Av. total 37.7...av. score 44.6) any away fav, off a 21+ ats win as home 3+ fav, if total is <40, and opp is off any ats loss. [Pits] (1-0 over this season. KC 23-20 'Zona @ 40)
...That's a combined 26-4-1 over spot!!
Pittsburgh finally got things together last week, and running up 41 on KC. They have topped 37 in 3 of 5 games so far, the 2 they didn't they were playing two very good run D's (Jax and SD), who both allow <4 y/rush.
Atlanta allow 4.2, but allow 259 yards on 38 attempts last week!! so there's no reason why Parker won't get on track here too.
There were 41 points scored in that game last week, but could have easily been more as there were INT's at both ends within scoring range.
Atl are actually 7-1-1 over in their last 9 at home, so they do play an uptempo style of game in the dome.
Cinci v. Carolina under 44 (1.97)
Carolina ML (~2.55)
League: 2-12-1 under (av. total 39.2...av. score 32.9!) as a fav of 3 or less off a 3- SU loss as away 3+ fav. [Cinci] ***
(0-7 under (Av. total 42.7...av. score 31.8!!!) if total >40!)
0-8-1 under (Av. total 39.6...av. score 29.2!!) if opp is off any ats win.
*** They are also 2-13 ats (Av. LOSS 3.0) in this situation, scoring just 14.9 ppg.
Cinci's offense is running more on reputation than anything else atm. Their o-line is struggling with their starting centre already out, now their left tackle is out too.
Henry is out suspended and Washington is ?? with a hamstring. No wonder they have score just 13 points in both of their last 2 games...and they scored 14 points late off Pits turnovers to make them look more potent than they really were in that game.
They couldn't get anything going on the ground last week against a Bucs team that had been leaking yards, so they will definately have problems against Carolina.
Both teams really struggle to convert 3rd down...Caro @ 24.3% and Cinci @ 32.3%...Caro allow just 26.3% tho, and Cinci 37.1%.
Both teams av. just 17 FD's a game, run at <4 y/rush and both have struggled in the red zone with a combined 22 TD's and 22 FG's.
Both teams will struggle to score, but Carolina will come up with more big plays and are great value to win SU, imo.
Arizona -3 (1.91)
League: 13-1-1 (Av. win 11.5!) away 3- fav, off any ats win but SU loss. [Zona] (1-0 this season. Cleveland 24-21 Oakland @ -2.5!)
I think it makes perfect sense here. Everyone is being down on the Cards as losers for blowing the game on Monday night...but the fact is that they performed FAR better than they were "supposed" to, got out to a big lead early, and still covered the spread by over 10 points, despite losing after some freaky plays.
Oakland are still Oakland!! They've scored just 5 offensive TD's all season, and throw for just 4.5 y/pass.
Also...
League: 7-16 (Av. loss 4.2) home 3- dog off an ats win but SU loss as away 10+ dog. [Oak] (0-1 last season. Balt 9-21 Cinci @ +3)
1-7 (Av. loss 7.0) if opp won 10+ ats last game.
Arizona are just the better team, playing better football in this one. No need to over think this one too much.
Good Luck all
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