Wk. 7.

[MrChristo]

First losing week...

27-18 (+7.23)

Bit of a recurring theme this week (unintentional)...just hope TO's are one of life's more random events...

Carolina v. NO under 44.5 (1.93)

Current favourite trend of Panthers as home Div favs...
Caro: 0-15 under (Av. total 40.9...av. score 33.6) home Div fav, since 2000.

Combined with...

League: 0-8 under (Av. total 45.9...av. score 36.7) home 3+ fav off a 21+ ats loss as away Div (+3 to -3) [Caro]

...Make this one too hard to resist.

NO flying thru the air (oh, pun! :00hour )...but haven't faced a D anything like the Panthers yet...
No. 2 in passing yards allowed, equal 1 @ 5.7 ypp.
The next best they have faced was back in week 1. v. Washington (6.3) who gave up just 216 (@6.5) passing and 19/55 on the ground.
Saints scored 24 but had 7 from a punt return.
Panthers clearly go conservative in the Div at home...solid D, lots of running...

Pits @ Cinci over 37 (1.95)

(Took this one early and got shafted!)

League: 11-3 over (Av. total 41.6...av. score 45.6) home 7+ dog, off any ats loss as a 7+ dog if they held opp to <100 yards rushing. [Cinci]
10-1 (Av. score 47.1!) if total is <46!

Basically, Bengals playing decent run D, means Pit will have to air it out...esp with Pits' RB situation...which should lead to some scoring either way.
(Steelers run for just 3.7 ypr on the season...same as the Jets who got just 86/27 last week)
Cinci giving up 24 a game, Pittsburgh will score...and the Steelers have given up 20 and 21 to Balt and Jax last 2, so how well are they going?

Det @ Houston under 48 (1.95)

(Actually got a good one early...)

League: 5-18 under (Av. total 43.9...av. score 39.9) home 7+ fav, total 40+, off a 1-3 ats loss as a home fav. [Houst]
1-9 under any total (0-9-1 this no...av. score 32.9!!) if opp was last away.

Houston on a 9/10 over run (thanks for the high total :mj06: )...but haven't faced an offense like this Orlovski lead Lions!!
Far more balanced (ahem) "attack"...ran 24 times last weekk on the NFL's 2nd best run D (threw just 21)...and actually had a bit of success! (24/100)
So expecting more of the same against a Texan run D allowing 4.7 ypc.
Orlovski just hasn't got a deep ball in him...no Roy Williams...even against a below av. Taxen D scoring will be a problem.
14 points really shouldn't have been scored last week in Houston, but they'll have far less problems running the game out agaisnt a Det D allowing 4.9 ypr, than Miami (3.7)
High total for only one team scoring.

Brownies @ Washington under 42 (1.93)

League: 1-13 under (0-13-1 this no...av. total 38.3...av. score 29.7) any 7+ dog off a SU win as home 7+ dog with 2 or more fewer TO's. [Cleve]
(Av. team score 7.1!)

A team av'ing 11.5 ppg scores 35 last week?!...In Prime Time...against the reigning SB Champs...
Played the perfect game, against a 3 TO game...
...now playing a team who I suspect is under-rated defensively.
'Skins allowed 19.5 ppg on the season, but played Phil, Dal, Zona, NO...just happen to be 4 of the top 5 scoring teams in the NFL!! :scared
Gave up just 8 FD's and 12 offensive points last week, should be able to hold the Cavs in check here.
Plenty of time consuming Portis against a consistantly bad run D...


That's it for now...

...one more definate (waiting for price)...a teaser for sure...and hopefully another bet depending on line movement...

Good Luck all

 

[MrChristo]

3 team teaser (6.5 points)

Wash -0.5
Houston -3
GB +7.5 @ 2.60

Some history...

League: 0-30 SU! (av. loss 16.1) any 7+ dog off a SU win as home 7+ dog. [Cleve]

League: 23-0 SU (Av. win 10.4) home 7+ fav, total 40.5+, off a 1-3 ats loss as any home fav. [Houst]
League: 0-10 SU (Av. loss 18.8) away 7+ dog off any ats win as away 10+ dog with 2 (or more) less TO's. [Det]

League: 0-14 ats (Av. LOSS 6.8) any away fav, ff a 7+ ats win as a home fav, if opp won 7+ ats with 34+ mins TOP. [Indi]
(Same as NYG last week!)

1) As explained, I suspect Cleveland will really struggle to score here. Surely the Wiz can get enough going to win the game...at a 30-0 spot, history suggests they will at least!
2) Detroit suck badly! On the road even worse. Surely Houston can score enough to win by a FG or more.
Lions won't score, Texans shouldn't have Minni's problem...
Det had 2 less TO's and still lost...Houston had 3 more TO's and still won...
3) GB being under rated here. Won confortably last week and controlled the game completely...yeah, limitted opposition I know, but they did what they had to, and now don't deserve to be dogs at home...
...Conversely, Indi being over-rated off a big win...but a 0-5 TO margin (but more on that later )...
GB control the ground, the clock and the game.
Will they win, probably...prepared to say they won't lose by more tha 4 tho.


Right!...Baltimore and the Giants to come... :0corn

 

[Hooks]

Very impressive Mr. Christo.

A normal winning week lies ahead I see.
Late , Mate :mj06:

 

[MrChristo]

Now the lines have settled...

Baltimore +3 (1.91)

League: 11-1 (Av. WIN 4.8) any away dog off a 7+ ats loss as away 3+ dog, if opp won ats but lost SU. [Balt]

Do teams that lose but cover not have that killer instinct to finish a game for good?...or is it their D is just not good enough to close out a game?
Either way, Miami were realistically thumped last week, except that they had just 1 TO to Houston's 4!
Over 100 less yards, 14-23 FD's, over 4 less mins TOP...
...on the other hand, the Ravens were smashed, but for much the same reason. 5 TO to none!!
Clearly El Flacco is still going to throw the odd pick, but I'll be surprised if the Raven D doesn't step right up this week and force some TO's of their own.
Forget last week, if Baltimore can go into Pittsburgh and take it to OT (16-11 FD's), then they can go to Miami and get the win.

NYG -10 (1.91)

League: 13-3 (Av. win 18.0) any 10+ fav off ay SU loss with 150+ rushing yards. [NYG]
9-0 (Av. win 20.9) if non-Div.
(Jax 37-6 Caro @ -11 in 2007)

San Fran also in a 0-26 SU spot (10-16 ats) as a 10+ dog, total 44.5+ off a 7+ ats loss as any dog.

More of the same...3 TO's to 0 last week left the Giants in too big of a hole to dig out, despite controlling the ground game.
The 9ers just aren't very good are they! 2 wins against really bad teams (with just 1 TO in both games combined!) between 4 losses of 9 or more...
...now travelling cross country for an early game against a pissed off defending SB Champ?! kurby

Collins under 16.5 completions (1.91)

Better have one prop bet for the week!
Collins has played 4 full games, completed 14, 14, 18 and 17 passes...but the last 2 were against the no. 1 and no. 4 run D's, so he was forced to thrw 32 and 35 times in those games.
No such worries against a KC D allowing 5.0 ypc...a big reason why they "allow" the 2nd fewest completions in the NFL.
In only 2 games this season have teams completed more than 14 passes v. KC...Cutler went 29/42 behind all day (and is no. 3 pass completing offense as it is), and NE went 20/29, 7/11 of which were Brady...and it was spot on their av. of 65%...
...Collins just 55% on the season (29th overall for completions) should see the under here with anything less than 30 throws.

Hope everyone has a big day. :toast:

 

[budhachi]

NYG -10 (1.91)

League: 13-3 (Av. win 18.0) any 10+ fav off ay SU loss with 150+ rushing yards. [NYG]
9-0 (Av. win 20.9) if non-Div.
(Jax 37-6 Caro @ -11 in 2007)

San Fran also in a 0-26 SU spot (10-16 ats) as a 10+ dog, total 44.5+ off a 7+ ats loss as any dog.

More of the same...3 TO's to 0 last week left the Giants in too big of a hole to dig out, despite controlling the ground game.
The 9ers just aren't very good are they! 2 wins against really bad teams (with just 1 TO in both games combined!) between 4 losses of 9 or more...
...now travelling cross country for an early game against a pissed off defending SB Champ?! kurby


Hope everyone has a big day. :toast:

Plus you have a very strong D (Giants) going up against a VERY weak D (Frisco)

GL,
Budha :mj06:

 

[60 SEC ASSASSIN]

gl and keep up the great work mate :SIB

 

[Coach Burns]

Nice day going.....Coattailed a cpl of
them... Wish I had bet the whole damn
card....

Good luck and kick ass
Coach Burns

 

[ron808]

nice work and write ups.

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks guys! :toast:

A 2 point conversion away from a perfect weekend...
...in a game with a 97 pass from a totally (well, previously!! :scared ) inept offense, and 2 x 54 yard FG's. :shrug:

Oh well, could have been worse, Hanson could have been playing for Cleveland.

7-1 for +6 and a bit units...slowly working back to that 66% mark. :00hour

Good luck with any late bets lads...I'm out for the week.

 

[Old School]

SUPERIOR CAPPIN'


CONTINUED SUCCESS..