Crappy losing, but horribly unlucky (I think anyway! kurby ) week 8...
...still 37-24-2 (+10.74) on the season.
TB -7.5 (1.91)
League: 7-21-1 (Av. Loss 10.9) home dog of 3 or more, total <38, off an ats win but SU loss as away 10+ dog. [KC]
(2-8-1 (Av loss 14.6) as a 7+ dog)
And 0-7-1 (Av. Loss 14.1) off a SU loss but ats win at any line last week.
The Chiefs have won just one game for the season?a game where their no. 1 QB didn?t turn the ball over and Larry Johnson ran for 198 yards!
Now down to QB no. 3 and Johnson out, facing the 5th best defense in the country, you?d have to think they?ll struggle!
On the surface the Bucs haven?t played well on the road, but 2 were starts by Griese (besides, a win @ Chicago is a good effort)?and last game they played Dallas who are 10th overall D, and allow 3.9 ypc?
?KC are 31st overall, and 32nd in rushing @ 5.6 ypc!!
Tampa should win this by DD's.
Dallas +7.5 (1.90)
League: 2-15-1 (Av. LOSS 3.2) any Div fav, total 40.5+, off a 7+ SU win as away dog with 34+ mins TOP, and 2 (or more) less TO's. [NYG]
0-5-1 (Av. win 1.0) as a 7+ fav.
(Jax v. Tenn this season)
Dallas are having their problems right now, but this is too may ponts for a Div game.
I read someone else here who said the Dallas D will keep them in it, and I agree.
Allowing just 6.7 ypp (NYG 7.0) and 3.9 ypr (NYG 3.8), 10th overall D...
...and also running well, gaining 4.9 ypc
TO's are the key, but if Dallas hold on to the ball here, they at least keep it close.
Seattle +7 (1.92) and over 42 (1.95)
League: 1-9 (Av. LOSS 4.7!) away 3+ fav off an ats win as home 7+ fav, if opp is off a 14+ ats win. [Phil]
League: 9-1 over (Av. total 37.8...av. score 48.0) home 3+ dog off a SU win as away 3+ dog with <26 mins TOP. [Seattle]
(Oak 34-20 Denver @ 42, 2007)
I think we can forget Wallace's first week...first start for about 2 years, early Eastern game, agaisnt one of the toughest D's in the country...
...showed what he can do last week, carried the team with nearly 9 ypp and no TO's, despite a terrible ground game (28/39!)
Philli haven't been so good defensively on the road (allow 7.1 ypp, same as San Fran), and giving up over 30 ppg...inc. 26 @ SF 2 weeks ago.
I like Seattle to score enough to get the cover and the over.
Baltimore +1.5 (1.94)
League: 12-4-1 (Av. WIN 8.2!) any road game, total <38, off an ats win as a 3+ fav with 34+ mins TOP and a 0 TO margin. [Balt]
7-0 (Av. WIN 14.1!!) if opp had <30 mins TOP.
Ravens dominated Oakland...and did it all without the help of TO's.
They've got a great running game going with Mcgahee, Rice and McClain, and they should be able to pound away on a Browns D allowing 4.7 ypc.
What have Cleveland done anyway? They've beaten Ryan Fitzpatrick...home win as a MNF dog with NYG in a terrible spot, and somehow beat Jax last week despite 15-23 FD's over 50 less yards and over 10 less mins TOP!!
Ravens fell behind 0-7 in the first meeting this season, but still won 28-10 with over 15:30 more TOP!! and over 150 yards on the ground. kurby
This Anderson/Brownie resurgence is all a bit of a mirage I reckon.
Better team wins big.
Denver v. Miami under 49 (1.97) (I got some shitty lines again this week! )
League: 4-14-2 under (Av. total 47.1...av. score 41.9) away, non-Div 3+ dog, total 44.5+, off a 7+ ats win as home (-3 to +3) [Mia]
(inc. TB @ Denver 2008)
1-10 under (Av. score 37.1) if next game is back home.
Wooo! Where's this total come from? (And why is it still climbing? :shrug: ) After a flying start (offensively at least) to the season Denver have scored 7, 17, 16 an 19 in their last 4!
Run D continues to be a huge problem (5.4), but not sure Miami can take advantage, gaining only 3.7 on the ground...and about 3.3 if we take out that monster game v. a dopey NE! kurby
Teams have been happy to take away Denver's deep ball, Cutler not 100%, RB's not 100% (who's Ryan Torain?!)...
...although still extremely tempted by the -3... :0corn **
Either way, I think there's some points to spare here.
NE @ Indi over 44 (1.91)
League: 12-1 over (Av. total 44.3...av. score 55.0!) home, non-Div 3+ fav, off a 10+ SU loss as a 3+ dog, with more TO's, and opp is off an ats loss. [indi]
8-0 (Av. score 56.6) with 2 (or more) more TO's.
(Seattle 17-28 @ NO (42.5), Det 25-20 @ KC (43.5) in 2007)
Indi's lack of offese has been making all the news, but how bad is their D? Given up 23+ in 5 of 7 games so far, due mainly to a leaky run D, allowing 4.2, which NE rely on to take the pressure of Cassel.
If we forget game 1 (alas, poor Tom...), NE have faced just 2 teams who allow more than 4 ypc...the last 2 games where they've scored 41 and 23.
Their pass D is pretty bad tho, ranked 26th, allowing 7.9 ypp, so Manning should be able to get moving here.
Big Sunday night game...should see some points.
Gerrard under 247.5 passing (1.83)
Got screwed last week when he threw the ball 42 times, and still only went over the 220 or so with a minute to play.
Cinci pass D is better than the Browns', and they allow more on the ground...
...it's tough to see Fitzpatrick scoring 23, so Jags should be able to commit to the run a bit more often this week.
Even if he does thow 40 times again it looks a high number, and going purely on averages, anything less than 35 attempts should result in a winner.
** I don't like taking such a low price, but Dever are in a 12-1 (11-0-1 @ -3) League spot...
...and are a perfect 10-0 ats since 1991 after a BYE off a loss the week before. :toast:
Good Luck all
...still 37-24-2 (+10.74) on the season.
TB -7.5 (1.91)
League: 7-21-1 (Av. Loss 10.9) home dog of 3 or more, total <38, off an ats win but SU loss as away 10+ dog. [KC]
(2-8-1 (Av loss 14.6) as a 7+ dog)
And 0-7-1 (Av. Loss 14.1) off a SU loss but ats win at any line last week.
The Chiefs have won just one game for the season?a game where their no. 1 QB didn?t turn the ball over and Larry Johnson ran for 198 yards!
Now down to QB no. 3 and Johnson out, facing the 5th best defense in the country, you?d have to think they?ll struggle!
On the surface the Bucs haven?t played well on the road, but 2 were starts by Griese (besides, a win @ Chicago is a good effort)?and last game they played Dallas who are 10th overall D, and allow 3.9 ypc?
?KC are 31st overall, and 32nd in rushing @ 5.6 ypc!!
Tampa should win this by DD's.
Dallas +7.5 (1.90)
League: 2-15-1 (Av. LOSS 3.2) any Div fav, total 40.5+, off a 7+ SU win as away dog with 34+ mins TOP, and 2 (or more) less TO's. [NYG]
0-5-1 (Av. win 1.0) as a 7+ fav.
(Jax v. Tenn this season)
Dallas are having their problems right now, but this is too may ponts for a Div game.
I read someone else here who said the Dallas D will keep them in it, and I agree.
Allowing just 6.7 ypp (NYG 7.0) and 3.9 ypr (NYG 3.8), 10th overall D...
...and also running well, gaining 4.9 ypc
TO's are the key, but if Dallas hold on to the ball here, they at least keep it close.
Seattle +7 (1.92) and over 42 (1.95)
League: 1-9 (Av. LOSS 4.7!) away 3+ fav off an ats win as home 7+ fav, if opp is off a 14+ ats win. [Phil]
League: 9-1 over (Av. total 37.8...av. score 48.0) home 3+ dog off a SU win as away 3+ dog with <26 mins TOP. [Seattle]
(Oak 34-20 Denver @ 42, 2007)
I think we can forget Wallace's first week...first start for about 2 years, early Eastern game, agaisnt one of the toughest D's in the country...
...showed what he can do last week, carried the team with nearly 9 ypp and no TO's, despite a terrible ground game (28/39!)
Philli haven't been so good defensively on the road (allow 7.1 ypp, same as San Fran), and giving up over 30 ppg...inc. 26 @ SF 2 weeks ago.
I like Seattle to score enough to get the cover and the over.
Baltimore +1.5 (1.94)
League: 12-4-1 (Av. WIN 8.2!) any road game, total <38, off an ats win as a 3+ fav with 34+ mins TOP and a 0 TO margin. [Balt]
7-0 (Av. WIN 14.1!!) if opp had <30 mins TOP.
Ravens dominated Oakland...and did it all without the help of TO's.
They've got a great running game going with Mcgahee, Rice and McClain, and they should be able to pound away on a Browns D allowing 4.7 ypc.
What have Cleveland done anyway? They've beaten Ryan Fitzpatrick...home win as a MNF dog with NYG in a terrible spot, and somehow beat Jax last week despite 15-23 FD's over 50 less yards and over 10 less mins TOP!!
Ravens fell behind 0-7 in the first meeting this season, but still won 28-10 with over 15:30 more TOP!! and over 150 yards on the ground. kurby
This Anderson/Brownie resurgence is all a bit of a mirage I reckon.
Better team wins big.
Denver v. Miami under 49 (1.97) (I got some shitty lines again this week!
)League: 4-14-2 under (Av. total 47.1...av. score 41.9) away, non-Div 3+ dog, total 44.5+, off a 7+ ats win as home (-3 to +3) [Mia]
(inc. TB @ Denver 2008)
1-10 under (Av. score 37.1) if next game is back home.
Wooo! Where's this total come from? (And why is it still climbing? :shrug: ) After a flying start (offensively at least) to the season Denver have scored 7, 17, 16 an 19 in their last 4!
Run D continues to be a huge problem (5.4), but not sure Miami can take advantage, gaining only 3.7 on the ground...and about 3.3 if we take out that monster game v. a dopey NE! kurby
Teams have been happy to take away Denver's deep ball, Cutler not 100%, RB's not 100% (who's Ryan Torain?!)...
...although still extremely tempted by the -3... :0corn **
Either way, I think there's some points to spare here.
NE @ Indi over 44 (1.91)
League: 12-1 over (Av. total 44.3...av. score 55.0!) home, non-Div 3+ fav, off a 10+ SU loss as a 3+ dog, with more TO's, and opp is off an ats loss. [indi]
8-0 (Av. score 56.6) with 2 (or more) more TO's.
(Seattle 17-28 @ NO (42.5), Det 25-20 @ KC (43.5) in 2007)
Indi's lack of offese has been making all the news, but how bad is their D? Given up 23+ in 5 of 7 games so far, due mainly to a leaky run D, allowing 4.2, which NE rely on to take the pressure of Cassel.
If we forget game 1 (alas, poor Tom...), NE have faced just 2 teams who allow more than 4 ypc...the last 2 games where they've scored 41 and 23.
Their pass D is pretty bad tho, ranked 26th, allowing 7.9 ypp, so Manning should be able to get moving here.
Big Sunday night game...should see some points.
Gerrard under 247.5 passing (1.83)
Got screwed last week when he threw the ball 42 times, and still only went over the 220 or so with a minute to play.
Cinci pass D is better than the Browns', and they allow more on the ground...
...it's tough to see Fitzpatrick scoring 23, so Jags should be able to commit to the run a bit more often this week.
Even if he does thow 40 times again it looks a high number, and going purely on averages, anything less than 35 attempts should result in a winner.
** I don't like taking such a low price, but Dever are in a 12-1 (11-0-1 @ -3) League spot...
...and are a perfect 10-0 ats since 1991 after a BYE off a loss the week before. :toast:
Good Luck all
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