30-35-1 (-7.74)
Fair to say, this season is quickly becoming a total waste of time...
Chicago v. Arizona under 45
League: 1-9-2 under (0-10-1 this no...av. total 41.8...av. score 34.0) at home, off a 10+ ats win as home 7+ fav with 32+ TOP, if opp is off a 10+ ats loss. [Chic]
Cards are 2-5 under on the year, and have their 2 highest scores against teams in the bottom 4 for sacks. (And 7 v. Houston came with a late pick 7)...and a surprisingly solid D that has allowed more than 21 just twice...obviously last week where Carolina somehow managed to run all day (won't happen here), and v. Indi when Manning lit it up...(won't happen here!).
Bears D 11th overall for y/pass (6.6) and 9th best for y/play, should be able to keep Warner in check (esp. with a limitted Boldin)...of course Cutler is having problems of his own putting points on the board...3 games with 17+...2 of those v. Det and Cleveland who are in the bottom 5 teams for y/play allowed.
Cinci v. Baltimore under 44
League: 3-20 under (Av. total 40.5...av. score 32.5) Div road fav, off an ats win as fav with 30+ mins TOP, if opp won last meeting by 12+ ats. [Balt]
[Home line of -3 to +3 off a BYE also a strong under play.]
An under-rated Cinci D and a Raven D with revenge (and motivation after Ocho said their defense 'stinks')...
First meeting was 17-14 with a pick return...and no way Benson runs for big numbers again.
Big total due to big scores last game both tems played, but as a match up I don't see too many points here.
Tenn @ SF under 41
Titans look happy to go with a conservative game plan with Young @ QB...not that he throws the ball down field anyway. Lots of short stuff and running...
...but SF are no. 1 at stopping the run, allowing just 3.2 ypc.
Titans D just about back to full strength, so expecting SF to pound Gore, much the same as usual.
Both teams are terrible at converting 3rd downs (18th and 29th) @ just 38% and 28%...again doesn't look like a game with a lot of firewaorks.
Seattle -10
League: 9-1 (Av. win 20.7) 10+ fav off a SU loss as a road 7+ dog. [Sea] (The lone loss had a total of 34.5)
Forget the last 2 games for Seattle...they are now healthy (every player not on IR practiced Friday).
Tough schedule too, played just 3 teams with losing records...thumped both SL and Jax at home, and couldn't stop Gore way back in week 2.
Detroit are still just about as bad as it gets...3 road games so far and they have lost by 18, 24 and 26.
Atlanta -10
Falcons have 3 losses on the season...all to teams in the top 8 for scoring!...and it's only the second time all season they've played a team with a losing record. Pretty sure they'll be happy to face th 28th ranked Washington and their 13 ppg.
Turner got going last week against a similar run D @ NO...in fact Washington has very similar defensive numbers to both Carolina and NO...Falcons scored 28 and 27...
...given Washington haven't scored more than 17 all season, I think that should be enough.
Pierre Thomas OVER 61.5 rushing
Not sure where this line is coming from...
...he has topped 70 in 4 of the 5 games he has played...just 8/30 v. Miami, but they are the 6th best run D (92.4 @ 3.6), and Carolina are the 24th. (127 @ 4.5)
14/91 last week v. the Falcons, so in good form...61.5 looks very achievable to me.
Good Luck all
Fair to say, this season is quickly becoming a total waste of time...
Chicago v. Arizona under 45
League: 1-9-2 under (0-10-1 this no...av. total 41.8...av. score 34.0) at home, off a 10+ ats win as home 7+ fav with 32+ TOP, if opp is off a 10+ ats loss. [Chic]
Cards are 2-5 under on the year, and have their 2 highest scores against teams in the bottom 4 for sacks. (And 7 v. Houston came with a late pick 7)...and a surprisingly solid D that has allowed more than 21 just twice...obviously last week where Carolina somehow managed to run all day (won't happen here), and v. Indi when Manning lit it up...(won't happen here!).
Bears D 11th overall for y/pass (6.6) and 9th best for y/play, should be able to keep Warner in check (esp. with a limitted Boldin)...of course Cutler is having problems of his own putting points on the board...3 games with 17+...2 of those v. Det and Cleveland who are in the bottom 5 teams for y/play allowed.
Cinci v. Baltimore under 44
League: 3-20 under (Av. total 40.5...av. score 32.5) Div road fav, off an ats win as fav with 30+ mins TOP, if opp won last meeting by 12+ ats. [Balt]
[Home line of -3 to +3 off a BYE also a strong under play.]
An under-rated Cinci D and a Raven D with revenge (and motivation after Ocho said their defense 'stinks')...
First meeting was 17-14 with a pick return...and no way Benson runs for big numbers again.
Big total due to big scores last game both tems played, but as a match up I don't see too many points here.
Tenn @ SF under 41
Titans look happy to go with a conservative game plan with Young @ QB...not that he throws the ball down field anyway. Lots of short stuff and running...
...but SF are no. 1 at stopping the run, allowing just 3.2 ypc.
Titans D just about back to full strength, so expecting SF to pound Gore, much the same as usual.
Both teams are terrible at converting 3rd downs (18th and 29th) @ just 38% and 28%...again doesn't look like a game with a lot of firewaorks.
Seattle -10
League: 9-1 (Av. win 20.7) 10+ fav off a SU loss as a road 7+ dog. [Sea] (The lone loss had a total of 34.5)
Forget the last 2 games for Seattle...they are now healthy (every player not on IR practiced Friday).
Tough schedule too, played just 3 teams with losing records...thumped both SL and Jax at home, and couldn't stop Gore way back in week 2.
Detroit are still just about as bad as it gets...3 road games so far and they have lost by 18, 24 and 26.
Atlanta -10
Falcons have 3 losses on the season...all to teams in the top 8 for scoring!...and it's only the second time all season they've played a team with a losing record. Pretty sure they'll be happy to face th 28th ranked Washington and their 13 ppg.
Turner got going last week against a similar run D @ NO...in fact Washington has very similar defensive numbers to both Carolina and NO...Falcons scored 28 and 27...
...given Washington haven't scored more than 17 all season, I think that should be enough.
Pierre Thomas OVER 61.5 rushing
Not sure where this line is coming from...
...he has topped 70 in 4 of the 5 games he has played...just 8/30 v. Miami, but they are the 6th best run D (92.4 @ 3.6), and Carolina are the 24th. (127 @ 4.5)
14/91 last week v. the Falcons, so in good form...61.5 looks very achievable to me.
Good Luck all
