Phil --
It looks like we're in agreement. Glad to hear you're doing so well. Here's what I sent out to a couple of people earlier today:
WA -1.5 (Oly)
#1 O vs #1 D. HOU 8-0 vs WA all-time. WA 3-0 this season at home. I think WA wants this game for respect, they've had since last SUN to prepare. HOU comes off a revenge win vs CHA on Tues nite, they might be a little flat. WA should get 15,000 for this game, I like their chances at home. If WA can run, HOU can't keep up.
BEST BET: New York/Sacramento Over 133 (SIA)
This is the 4th game in a 4 game road trip for The Liberty, playing all four games in just six days. This is Sacramento's first game back at home after losing all three in a three-game road swing. The Liberty are coming off a 2PM matinee on Tuesday for tonight's 10PM start.
The Liberty are 6-2 for the season and 2-1 on this road trip but they have made some close games out of match-ups with several much lesser teams.
It might be possible that the Liberty team take the 0-4 Monarchs too lightly. But Sacramento has been really hurt by injuries with three of their top players out (Yolanda Griffith, Edna Campbell and Kara Wolters) and they are not good.
While the Liberty is a good defensive team, Sacramento is among the worst in the league on D.
What I envision in tonight's game is that the tired Liberty just try to outscore the injury-weakened Monarchs instead of resorting to playing tough D. The Monarchs can't make a shot anyway, missing 14 of their first 16 shots in Tuesdays 72-63 loss to MN.
So you end up with a final score like the NY games at POR and at SEA earlier this year: 84-62 and 78-61.
I think the Monarchs should be good for 60-65 on their home court.
So if the Liberty can score 80 we're all set.
POR +5.5
Minny is not a good team at home. Small crowds, 1-2 this year, 5-10 last. MN adds Tamara Moore to their backcourt but this could take a couple of games to gel. POR seems to be adjusting to life without Stiles, they've won their last 2 including a nice road win at SEA last time out. Alisa Burras is leading the league in FG% at 72%. Guard Tully Bevilaqua is back on the roster. I like Figgs at shooting guard, I think she led the league in 3 point % last year I don't know why they had her at point. MN is just not that good, they only just beat SAC at home by 9. POR should be able to stay within 5.5 and I wouldn't be surprised if they win SU.
gl