Phil -- my write-up from the other place:
BEST BET: Orlando/Cleveland Over 137.5
Cleveland is fired up for revenge tonight as ORL beat the Rockers down in FL in triple OT 103-99 just ten days ago (tied at 71 at the end of regulation).
This game is a match-up of two good offenses against two weak defenses.
Through last Sundays games, CLE had the #4 O and the #14 D, while ORL had the #3 O and the #16 D (out of 16 teams).
Cleveland is also a much improved team since these two teams played just ten days ago as two of the Rockers' star players are now back in the line-up.
Forward Rushia Brown and center Ann Wauters have now played two games back with CLE, and the Rockers are clearly playing better ball. Brown had a broken finger and Wauters returned from Europe where she was playing in the French League. In last Saturdays game vs IND, Brown and Wauters each played 20+ minutes and combined for a third of IND's 27 rebounds. Brown and Wauters were #2 and #4 respectively last year in the league in FG percentage.
It was advertised that Brown and Wauters were going to help CLE get better on D (they had the #1 D in the league last year) but so far they've been more of a factor in improving CLE's O. The Rockers beat IND 79-68 not by shutting down the IND O (the Fever shot 44% from the field) but by shooting an awesome 56% from the field against the #6 D in the league. Merlakia Jones is averaging 21.7% in her L3. IMO the presence of Brown and Wauters in the line-up helps create more open looks for the rest of the team and more second chances.
Both ORL and CLE are at the top of the league in FG percentage.
In their L5 games, CLE is #2 at 48% with their opponents averaging 45% and ORL is #5 at 47% with their opponents shooting 44%.
ORL is coming off a 71-62 upset road victory last night over The Liberty, a game where the Miracle played aggressively and forced 17 TOs and in which they scored 71 points on the #3 D in the league.
The current line on the game is now CLE -7.5 which translates to CLE 72.5 ORL 65.
Orlando has only been held under 70 twice this year: by MIA who has the #2 D and by IND who has the #6 D.
Against teams with lesser defenses like DET (#10 D) and WA (#12 D), ORL scored 80+.
I have this game capped significantly over 138.
gl
- Jon
