Womens British Open

[DerrickTulips]

Inbee Park -130 over Michelle Wie (72)

:shrug:

 

[xodale]

Some of the women will struggle around carnoustie, even if the wind doesn't blow, but looking to Ai Miyazato to follow up last weeks good result as weather looks to be pretty benign - she shot level par yesterday in proam 18/1. Also Angela Stanford looked to be hitting the ball pretty good today and is in good form at 30s.

And in tomorrows 3-balls

I'm on on-course mics for ESPN so I'll be paying CLOSE attention )

 

[xodale]

Tournament match -ups
Stanford tb Mika Mizayato 10/11
Ai Miyazato tb Pettersen 10/11

 

[Stanley]

Round 1 play (4pts):

I.K. Kim to beat Karrie Webb -161 @ Unibet

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Choi N tb Wie -139; Hjorth tb Webb -120; Pressel tb Yang -120; Choi N tb Webb +105; Nordqvist tb Hedwall -109; Ahn tb Yoo -125; Matthew tb Hedwall -120]

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (4pts):

Eun-Hee Ji to beat Caroline Masson -105 @ 5Dimes

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Pak S tb Brewerton -105; Matthew tb Hedwall -110; Joh tb Jennings -120; Creamer tb Lincicome -105]

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (6pts):

Se Ri Pak to beat Meena Lee +110 @ William Hill and Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power]

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Han tb Jennings -120; Matthew tb Gicquel-Bettan -188; Tseng tb Hedwall -175; Stanford tb Matthew -130; Ahn tb Yoo -120; Choi N tb Park I -130; Seo tb Saiki -110; Pak S tb Gustafson -130; Lang tb Ueda -120; Munoz tb Choi C -125]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (4pts):

Yani Tseng to beat Caroline Masson +100 @ 5Dimes

[unofficial rd4 system plays: McPherson tb Wessberg -105; Park S tb Gustafson +105; Ahn tb Ueda -125; Boeljon tb Futcher -125; Kim S tb Hedwall -135]

 

[Miklos]

I believe that I have found a nice way to bet on
Yani Tseng over Caroline Masson if you have accounts at 5Dimes and Bet365 at no risk of losing any money but a chance to win some money depending on the outcome of their 4th round matchup.

At 5 dimes you can bet(now) Yani Tseng to beat Caroline Masson at -105

So let's say you bet $22 to win $20.95

You now go to Bet365 and bet

Caroline Masson $10(+275) to win $27.50 (2 ball betting) ties lose

You now bet $5(+750) to tie to win $37.50

If Yani Tseng wins by 1 or more strokes over Caroline Masson in the 4th round you would win $20.95 - 15=+$5.96

If Caroline Masson wins by 1 or more strokes you would win $27.50- $27 = +$.50

And the best case scenario would be if they both shoot the same score and tie you would win
$37.50 -10 = + $27.50 because you would not lose your $22 wager at 5dimes if they tied ( it would be a push at 5 dimes)

Have I figured this out correctly or have I made a mistake somewhere?

 

[Stanley]

Looks right to me.

The issue is that 5Dimes have a worryingly different opinion on the matchup to Bet365 ... they price Tseng -105; Bet365 price Tseng -250 (ties loses) :shrug:

 

[sports student]

Stanley do you think 5 dimes actually posted a bad line? It seemed so far off to me but do not follow the girls very much, I may not know what a bad line would be in the LPGA.

 

[sports student]

I understand if you do not want to comment about it

 

[Miklos]

After the final results and Tseng won the 4th round matchup and I crunched the numbers it appears that the 2nd best scenario of the 3 happened which had a + 16% ROI with no risk involved.

If Caroline Masson had won by one or more strokes the ROI would only have been + 1.35 % ROI

But if they both would have shot the same score and tied for the 4th round then the ROI would have been a whopping + 74.32 %

Not a bad situation to be in with NO risk involved!

The advantages of having large balances at competing books.