OK, just for fun I'll try to make a case for Houston. All statements I believe are true, by the way....
I think the Texans are going to enjoy a reasonable kind of home advantage this season. Rabid fans, loud stadium, fans will go crazy with any success at all. And the players will do their best to give it to them. Houston could and will pull off some home upsets this year, a la the Dallas game.
This is probably the weakest defence the Texans have faced all year. Actually, I have little doubt that it is. Dallas' D is not bad (better than most people give them credit for), SD and Philly both have very good D, and Indy is probably middle of the pack (improving under Dungy?). So by comparision, this is the Texans best opportunity to put some points on the board all year.
By contrast...and this sounds funny to say....but this may be one of the best defences Buffalo has faced all year! The problem with the Texans D is they are on the field too much because their offence is so inept. But on the whole, it's the only thing keeping them in the game. Buff has faced the "awesome" defences of NYJ (awful), Minnesota (awful), Denver (average?), Chicago (below average) and Oakland (playing wide open this year, so I'll say average). Interesting.
If Houston can keep their own offence on the field longer than usual against this Buffalo D, will the Texans D be better able to stay close in this game than the others? Maybe....
Then you've got the fact Buffalo will probably be looking ahead to their big game next week @ Mia, knowing if they want to stay within arms length of the division lead, they will need to go full bore there. Coming off a big game with Oakland last week this game sure doesn't look to exciting to them.
And then there's the fact that 7 or 8 point road favorites are historically some of the worst-performing bets in the NFL.
And with all of that I think I've almost talked myself into a bet on the Texans this week. Wow.
